Comments by "Anders Juel Jensen" (@andersjjensen) on "Nobody is Taking Russian Threats Serious Anymore" video.

@tomasmoskala7500 It's about total capacity of each alternative route. It all adds up. Remember that Ukraine exports ~75 million tons of grain and peas annually. If each ship (assuming only larger ones) can take 50 thousand tonnes that's still 1500 ships annually. Going up the Danube excludes the bigger ones, so now you're looking at maybe 10-25 thousand tonnes per ship. Another limiting factor is the throughput of rail cart loading. By spreading it out to multiple harbours you get more available rail terminals.
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The problem is the completely BONKERS volume. Ukraine exports 75 million tons of grain and peas every year. Sure, if every Romanian trucker agreed to working stupid long hours the moving capacity would be there, but the loading and unloading capacity is the big problem. A forklift helps jack shit with grain, as it isn't palletised. For this to work the volume has to be split out on as many facilities that can handle bulk as possible. And that means rail carts, as that's what's connected to the bulk terminals. That, however, probably means that a lot of Romanian truckers will be moving stuff that would otherwise be moved by train.
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I think as soon as the terminals in Odessa are repaired ships will start going there directly. If Russia wants to run a legal blockade in accordance with international law they have to stop and search ships for military goods. To do that they have to put ships in Ukrainian waters, which they can't because Harpoon, Neptune and the sinking of Moskva are ever present factors they need to take into consideration.
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