Comments by "Grenade Tennis" (@hughjass1044) on "VisualPolitik EN"
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@gogs8166 For the most part, that's true but I don't think you even need to go that deep to understand what's going on. It's not merely a question of ideology though that's certainly part of it but it's really more a matter of cultural resentment.
Modern liberals... as opposed to classical liberals who are more in line with what we call conservatives today.... view themselves as an anointed class of people who are above everyone else and thus entitled to hold all the positions and levers of political, social and cultural power.
As a result, they feel they deserve to be, and indeed expect to be, revered and respected without reservation or question. When they don't get the reverence they feel is their birthright, they get VERY annoyed and begin to lash out.
When someone who is not of their class and clique gets a little too noisy or "uppity"... forgetting their place in the pecking order, you might say... the daggers and vitriol come out. "How DARE they??!!"
This is why you don't hear that much difference in how they talk about doctrinaire or moderate conservatives. To them, there really isn't that much difference. They are not "like" them so that, in and of itself, is sufficient justification for the vitriolic, class based hatred that is the essence of their existence.
They put on this grand show of concern about all things race and gender but the truth is they don't give a damn about any of it. All of it is just a set of tools with which to beat the "inferiors."
They are in a particularly acute stage of apoplexy at the moment because the PM of Italy is a woman and the PM of the UK is a "brown" person.... two cohorts they feel they have the exclusive right of ownership over.
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It's because of my "always expect and plan for the worst possible scenario" military training and background that I'm forced to always be the one to temper expectations and throw cold water on everyone's hopes but it needs to be said as many times as necessary until people get the message.....
Regardless of everything you've seen and heard, regardless of everything that's happened and regardless of what anyone tells you, this war is STILL very much Russia's to lose.
People need to understand that Putin or anyone who might replace him, simply does not think like someone in the west would think. He does NOT care about casualties. He does NOT care about equipment. He does NOT care about costs and most of all, he certainly does NOT care about public perception at home, largely because he's got everyone propagandized six ways from Sunday or in jail or driven from the country.
Another thing - his capacity to produce/acquire "equipment" and "armaments" is without limits. Yes, it's all garbage and yes, it'll not last two days in combat but if nothing else, it'll use up some sort of western supplied weapon to destroy it and possibly a few Ukrainian soldiers as well and since he can keep this cycle going indefinitely, the west WILL tire of supporting Ukraine at which point, Putin wins.
Ukraine needs to defeat Putin on the battlefield, fully, completely and permanently while Russia... or at least Putin, only needs to survive to be able to declare victory. If we in the west want to see an end to this war; an end that is final and not just one which will last a few years until Putin re-arms and re-equips, we're going to have to get a hell of a lot more serious about doing so than we have been.
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Let's see - USA falling apart, Brexit in Britain, Europe; well, being Europe, Russia, being Russia, a belligerent Iran, ISIS, Afghanistan, an ascendant China, turmoil in Latin America, North Korea, Saudi Arabia in trouble, opioid crisis, worldwide pandemic and pending economic collapse...... and COMPLETE lack of even a suggestion of leadership, anywhere......
Anyone know how to get to Gilligan's Island?
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@scratchy996 Anywhere, really. Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, The Baltics, Georgia, Serbia, even some day maybe, Ukraine. Every one of them represents a huge opportunity for foreign investment and growth.
It'll take drive and determination on their parts as well; it's a two-way street, after all, but it could pay huge dividends for all sides. It would also have the side benefit of prying them loose from Russian influence. Win - win all around.
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I don't find it particularly surprising that some people, or even most people, in Bulgaria and elsewhere in Eastern Europe have a kind of fondness for Russia. After all, they lived under the umbrella, influence and shadow of the Russian / Soviet Empire for centuries. You don't erase that in 30 years; especially when you're as poor as Bulgaria is and they perceive that Russia has done at least something for them in recent memory.
And it's not as though Western Europe is exactly doing very much to win their affections. If you want to shove Russia out of the picture, then start demonstrating what you have to offer that's better. If the EU (and the USA, for that matter) were smart they'd be investing heavily in places like Bulgaria and Hungary and bettering their economic prospects so they wouldn't continue to be tempted by, and look favorably upon, despots like Putin who only ever meant to exploit them.
Instead of buying everything from China and feeding cash to the PRC war machine, why not build factories in Bulgaria? Shorter and much more stable supply lines, you'd be keeping the wealth in Europe and you'd be dealing with allies instead of enemies - win/win.
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Norway finances its operations by taxes and banks its oil wealth. As a result, the nation and it's people retain a healthy buffer against periods of low economic activity so they can maintain their standard of living. They also retain the wealth; and the attendant power, that comes with it.
High earners pay high taxes for the privilege of living and operating their businesses in a safe, secure environment, with a healthy, well educated, highly motivated workforce. Strangely though, you don't constantly hear stories about people and businesses "fleeing" this high tax jurisdiction. Wonder why?
Alaska on the other hand (along with Alberta Canada, where I live), relies on resource revenue for everything and finances most of their operations with it. Whenever there's a price drop, we/they go into crisis mode because the money dries up.
Most of the wealth that our/their vast resources produce ends up in the pockets of oil company executives, stock portfolios and transient workers who pull pole and leave whenever times turn tough.
We/they are in nearly constant crisis mode when times are tight and blow through money like drunken sailors when times are good. What used to be great infrastructure and public services are declining steadily in quality but hey;.... LOW TAXES, BABY!!
The people who have nothing invested in this place and couldn't care less if we live or die are making out like gangbusters while the rest of us watch it all fade into dust.
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The sanctions are effective, the sanctions are not effective..... I guess, depends entirely on how you choose to define effective.
Are they likely to do serious damage to the Russian economy? Most likely, yes though it may not be as harsh or as quick as some would like. Are they likely to alter Russia's behavior in any meaningful way? I doubt it.
Remember, Iran and North Korea have been under absolutely debilitating sanctions for decades and each has only gotten more dangerous and more aggressive. And like both of those countries, Russians have been propagandized and brainwashed into believing that their governments are the heroes in all this and that they have to pull together to overcome it.
People seem to forget that deprivations, shortages and a general reduction in living standards are nothing new for Russians. They've seen all of this many times before and in each instance, the government has played victim and turned up the nationalism meter.
I've always said that sanctions are what you do when you're too gutless to do anything else. The poorer you are, the more they hurt you. The wealthier you are the less they hurt you so in a place like Russia where the government cares not a jot for anything nor anybody but itself, and where they've got the country believing that the other side are the bad guys, sanctions are likely to be of pretty limited effect.
You want Russia to stop what it's doing? You're going to have to go in and make them stop.
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It isn't a question of grievances, it's a question of what is and is not, an appropriate and acceptable response. No doubt, Russia probably has some legitimate issues with Ukraine; especially since the latter has been a corrupt basket case heavily and hopelessly indebted to the former for nearly all of its existence.
It follows then that Russia would take steps to remedy that situation. But there are many, MANY options open to it that fall well short of what it is currently doing which is far, FAR out of proportion to whatever sins Ukraine may be guilty of.
If I have a neighbor who refuses to properly mind his dog and that dog is continually shitting in my yard, digging up my garden and snarling at my kids, I have every right to be aggrieved about that; especially if I've made multiple attempts to try to remedy the situation peacefully. I have the right to seek redress of those grievances through proper legal channels.
What I do NOT have the right to do is go kick in my neighbor's door, kill him and his family, burn down his house, poison his well and steal his possessions as well as further threaten anyone who may come to his aid which is the equivalent of what Russia is doing.
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China needs to understand that any tactic it deploys against Taiwan can in turn, be deployed against it. China is boxed in by its geography and it doesn't exactly have a lot of friends in its neighborhood.
Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, The Philippines, India, Malaysia and Singapore, not to mention Australia and New Zealand, are all either direct US allies or adversaries of China or both. Any kind of blockading maneuver on Taiwan could be quickly and easily matched by any one of these nations and if that were to happen, China would be cut off from its trade both inbound and outbound and would therefore be something like 50 shades of f*cked overnight!
Not to mention all of the sanctions that would instantly be applied to it. China needs to understand that it needs the world far more than the world needs it. There are lots of other places the world can go for cheap labor and dollar store junk.
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@@KnowHowTrainer The "almighty Russian propaganda" is definitely a thing but the larger point is that these countries have been in the Russian sphere of influence, the Russian "orbit" if you will, for generations and as such, that's what they understand and gravitate towards. It isn't necessarily a case that they like Russian influence and everything that comes with it, it's just that that's what they've lived with and what they're used to.
I'm in Canada and the cultural, economic, political and military colossus that is the USA is butted right up against us and as such, that is what has shaped and continues to shape, our country. We don't always like it but it's the prevailing reality. We can't escape it.
I've done some travelling and working in Eastern Europe and I've never met a single person under 50 who wants the communist system back but what they do want is a decent living and a future for their kids. Right now, they're not getting it.
Under the communist system, the state controlled everything so people just sat around and waited to be told what to do. That's gone. Replacing it is the prevailing western attitude of "ok, you're free now; go be rich." This they cannot do because they don't know how. No one ever taught them. This is why they need assistance before they slip back into the clutches of the despots.
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@dougcoombes8497 Everything you said about Russian capacity; especially in the last six months is true. Unfortunately, none of it matters.
You're making the same mistake everyone else is making. You're thinking like a westerner and rationalizing things in the same way. You CAN'T do that! You have to see this thing as Putin sees it.
Putin will send wave after wave after wave of fresh bodies into the furnace with nothing more than uniforms if he has to, and he'll keep doing it as long as he can get away with it. He also has something like 6000 old tank hulls scattered about... and as I said; rusted out, 60 year old pieces of junk, but they can still make the Ukrainians use up munitions and that's all they need to do.
Yes, I'm being overly pessimistic and it's deliberate but it's to counter the endless drone of voices proclaiming Russia dead in the water when they're nothing of the kind.
Putin has backed himself into a corner. He's long since passed the point of no return. He CAN'T quit now, even if he wanted to. He also can't prevail against a NATO backed Ukraine so his only hope is to keep up this endless grind, grind, grind until he wears down western resolve and that's exactly what he's going to do.
I pray daily that I'm wrong but a lifetime in uniform has taught me that as long as your enemy draws breath, he can, and WILL, draw your blood. Some enemies you can force to sue for peace. Others are in way too deep and have to be destroyed. Putin's Russia is the latter.
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I really believe that if I hear the phrase "escalate the war" one more f*cking time, I'm either going to scream or hunt down the person who said it and wring their goddam neck!
This is nothing but the worst form of wanton, craven cowardice. You know who has not an ounce of fear about escalation? Putin, that's who, and we are the reason why. We have shown him exactly zilch to be afraid of.
There have been what, 200, 300 thousand casualties so far and something close to a trillion dollars in damages to say nothing of the millions of lives turned upside down and the enormous cost and strain put on already stretched western governments and all because we in the west utterly failed to so much as even lift a finger to prevent this war.
Putin was marshalling troops and equipment and conducting training at least 6 months prior to this thing, right out in the open for all to see, not the least bit concerned about who saw it all or knew about it and what did we do? Sat on our fat asses with dumb looks on our faces!
If we had matched him troop for troop and tank for tank, right on Ukrainian soil, started stationing naval task forces in the Black and Baltic Seas and repositioning strategic air assets to Europe and Turkey as well as ballistic missile submarines to the Med and the Arctic and let it be known we'd have exactly zero hesitation to use any or all of them and if Putin didn't like it, he could damned well do something about it.... if we had done even half of that PLUS the sanctions... this war does NOT happen!
But we did NONE of that and to make matters worse, we've dumped the whole responsibility onto Ukraine's lap while giving them penny packets of equipment... just barely enough for them to not lose and even then, only after months of begging and pleading.
For the love of almighty God; start pouring firepower and if necessary, personnel into that theater of war and END this f*cking thing NOW!!
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Re-surging? In other words, rising steadily and rapidly in popularity?
Well, let's un-pack this a bit and see if we can figure it out, shall we? If the "far" right, or the "far" left or the "far" anything is re-surging in Germany, or anywhere else for that matter, it's a pretty fair assumption that the "center"; however the hell that's defined these days, is failing or else they wouldn't be losing popularity.
If you take a quick glance around the western world, and even parts of the eastern world as well, you'll see that this is a trend that's growing and if there's a truly unfortunate thing about it, it's that the "center" consistently and reliably reacts to this in exactly the wrong way by doubling and tripling down on the very things that are pissing people off and causing them to lose support.
There's an old saying - "Take care of the reasonable and you'll never have to worry about the radical." Define reasonable and radical in each instance, to your own liking but the general premise holds.
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Russia "could" do lots of things.... up to and including pulling their collective heads out of their *sses and seriously getting their act together on the battlefield. I realize the likelihood of that isn't high but nevertheless, anyone with 2 cents worth of military experience and/or knowledge understands that you do NOT anticipate and plan for best case scenarios, you do it for worst case ones.
You DON'T sit around talking about all the things (you think) they can't do and making up excuses for why you don't need to act, you talk about.... and plan for... all the things they could do... and you fully expect them to do them!
So while we're talking about things which "could" happen, here's something NATO "could" do... get THEIR collective heads out of THEIR *sses, quit f*cking around and penny-packeting the Ukrainians with dribs and drabs of this and that, now and again, start putting some SERIOUS firepower on the ground... numbering in the 1000s of units, not the dozens... in Ukraine along with 200-300K troops to man it, give Russia a PUBLIC ultimatum to leave Ukraine... ALL of it.... in 48 hours or face a full scale, broad spectrum attack by NATO.
Yeah, I know.... about the same likelihood as Russia getting their act together.
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Here in Canada, there's kind of a running joke that comes up now and again, depending on the situation, that one day, the US will just absorb us and make us the 51st state. To this, many people reply that it wouldn't be worth their while to do so since if they did, they'd be responsible for us and have to look after us and since they already control everything of importance anyway.... the narrative goes.... and we're no threat to them, why bother, as the other old joke goes, "buying the cow when you already get the milk for free?"
As you say, Russia already controls everything of even marginal importance in Belarus and their leader is a reliable and loyal puppet. I have a friend who is Belorussian and he's explained to me several times that Putin isn't really bothered at all by former Soviet states, including Ukraine, being sovereign countries since he doesn't view that distinction the same way we would. He looks at things in terms of him being in control of anything in his neighborhood which he covets. In short, you answer to him and do what you're told, when you're told, and in other matters, do what you want.
If you refuse, "nice little country you've got there. Be a shame if anything happened to it." If Ukraine had decided to follow the same path as Belarus... or more accurately, Lukashenko's Belarus, all would have been fine but they did not and likewise, if the Belorussian people had been successful in toppling Lukashenko, Ukraine's fate would likely also have been Belarus's
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