Comments by "Sankalp" (@sankalp6872) on "India’s Q1 GDP grows by a phenomenal 20.1% u0026 here’s reality under that headline" video.

The 20.1% growth figure is about cautious optimism and not celebration. The fact that services and products are in distress also indicates the underlying opportunities for growth. Ever since Independence, policy alignment has been a major issue for India's industries, if this Govt can fix that somehow then the growth target of $4 to $4.5 Trillion by 2024 is POSSIBLE.
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He confused it with Newton's second law of motion.
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@PK-tt5kk No PK, if you see IMF is not giving a static number. They are revising it up and down with new information. Hence, this year's figures are crucial for future growth. Both IMF and RBI have predicted 9.5% for this year and Moody's had given 9.3%. If vaccination becomes a success and we avoid the 3rd wave many, the optimism and wealth effect may drive the economy further upward. So this year's figures are absolutely crucial for next year.
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@NINJA-lq4cx Doing away with red tapes, less Babu interference, easy procurement, lower taxes, investment in R&D and human capital (or at least incentives for firms to invest in these things), prompt clearances, reduction in fuel prices, big-ticket financing, streamlined system for clearance (one-window-protocol), environment laws in sync with reality and nation's problem and NOW WESTERN COPY PASTE. In addition, at Govt level -> address revenue leakages.
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Yup, the situation that was predicted for Pakistan actually ended up happening in Sri Lanka.
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@SudeeptaChakraborty Maths is not the problem. For $4 Trillion we would need to grow at 10% at least each year (Cagr) which by no means is easy but necessary. Also, otherwise it would be a massive shame.
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@SudeeptaChakraborty It is no aspirations. I never suggested anything that is out of sync with reality. Of course, 10-11% would be like adding a current Bangladesh to our GDP every year until 2024. However, the idea itself into exactly far-fetched. China added 10% growth every year until very recently. Our projections for the next two years are 9.5% and 8.5% as per the IMF June report. Assuming GoI gets its vaccination target and avoids the 3rd wave, these estimates may easily become upwards of 10%. For 2023 and 2024, the strategy should focus on exports, internal consumption, and realizing that asset monetization target. For once in life, I want to see Govt realize a target ahead of schedule.
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@SudeeptaChakraborty If you go by endogenous growth theory there is no limiting factor to a GDP hence what is realistic itself is subjective. The monetization plan is worth $81 billion dollars and comes with a multiplier effect. Fisc is also a part of GDP. I get that what couldn't be done in 70 years cannot be done in 3 years is a reasonable expectation but don't go by absolute figure of 4 Trillion dollars. Policy should aim at least to reach somewhere close enough. Nobody is saying it has to be that much but it can't be another bizzare 5% for certain. Also, China's numbers may be fuzzy but it looks like they have built a behemoth. I also keep hearing that there is some hidden bank loan problem with China but when it happens and it comes crushing down I will believe that. So for now let's go with what's given. Similarly, if some if India indeed achieves 10-11% growth figures, here too some nutcases will shout manipulation of data and change of method nonsense. Already vaccination numbers are being targeted. So far they have spared the GDP because they have the "base effect" argument. Our politics is hopelessly divided. Israel on the other hand started with just about $200 per capita in a desert devoid of resources yet see the level they have reached. Also, read Miracle on Han river. It is an example of how an impoverished economy became a global behemoth. Answer lies in policy. Socialism should be an outcome of policy and not the policy itself.
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@SudeeptaChakraborty I never said anything about "limitless" growth in endogenous growth theory. I said it does not limit growth. As per my understanding, neo-classical theories say that after a while growth will taper off but Endogenous growth theory argues that an economy can continue to grow and expand with R&D, innovation, human capital, etc. It need not flatten. Perhaps, I've misread the topic may have gotten an incorrect idea of Paul Romer's work. For me, it was just a semester work where the focus was on comparison across the various growth theories. So I'd be happy to be enlightened here. The China thing was because you said that you take those figures with a "pinch of salt". Also, I understand that the $81 billion figure is a notional amount but I have been clear that I am going by all tiles falling into the right places. My focus is on India adopting the right policies to extract that additional 3% over the otherwise 7-8% growth figure that we might achieve. Anyways, we can't be arguing over "estimates". Let's see what's in store for 2024. I would be disappointed with the current dispensation if they can't even deliver a $4 trillion economy. It does not matter who wins the election but only the country would be the loser. Also, you are entitled to your political choices. I don't want to argue on politics.
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