Comments by "srini sbir" (@srinisbir8781) on "What GDP data tells us about Modi govt’s handling of pandemic economy" video.

Farm laws could have helped agriculture, but people in India think at a selfish level.
3
@sjgghosh7677 Is giving money in the hands of people sustainable? I know Mamata wins elections by following stupid Abhijeet Banerjee's idiotic Nobel prize winning thesis of handing cash to people, but did that same phenomenon not cause global inflation after pandemic. Who is going to payback that money? How is that money going to create jobs? Why is WB state so much stimulating its economy instead of create entrepreneurs? If this is how Bengal is thinking today, I am worried about India's future.
2
@callofgamer4940 Guess what. All states pulled a stunt to quash the farmer reform, which would have been a game changer for farmers. Few landlords hijacked the protest, created a ruckus, and destroyed Indian agriculture for years to come. Most, turban wearing, thick heads from Punjab are to be blamed for it.
2
@bhai857 I disagree. I think semi conductor manufacturing requires and cell phone assembly requires a lot of manual labor. However, I agree that MSMEs are a bit beaten right now due to mostly external slow down. Most of the manufacturing uses MSMEs, and so currently there is a weak demand. Alternatively, India could inject more capital into its own market, like China did in early 2000s, when US was hovering around a recession. But that will lead to more inflation, so things have to dealt a lot delicately than one would expect.
2
But you never questioned UPA's lofty growth rate amidst piling bad loans in the form of NPAs. Why are you bringing loan recovery into question in this setting? What does that have to do with growth rate. GDP is calculated as a weighted combination of GVA + revenue collection - fiscal Stimulus. Bank credits aren't considered as stimulus, not now and also from before. I would like to know specifically why are you interested in loan recovery now, when you were careless about it during UPA regime. Just to remind you UPA incurred one of the worst NPAs in Indian banking history. Current govt, has recovered close to 80% of it and remaining is write-off.
2
However, the state (WB) has done poorly in drawing foreign direct investment. According to the report, West Bengal’s share in FDI inflow in the country stood at only one percent in 2019-20.
2
However, while looking at the state’s biggest economic issues – high debt burden and low revenue generation – its performance has improved since 2011. Bengal’s debt-GDSP ratio stood at its peak in 2010-11 at 41.9 percent, according to a Niti Aayog-sponsored survey conducted by IIM Calcutta. This was the highest in the country. Since then, the ratio has gradually come down and stood at 34.75 percent in 2018-19, according to the state’s budget report. The state’s gross fiscal deficit as a percentage of the GSDP has also improved from 4.2 percent in 2010-11 and 3.4 percent in 2014-15 to 2.96 percent in 2018-19, according to the same reports. The GSDP growth rate at 2011-12 constant prices went up from 4.17 percent in 2012-13 to 6.13 percent in 2015-16, 7.2 percent in 2016-17, and 6.41 percent in 2018-19. However, it still consistently remained below the national average. According to the ranking of states’ per capita income at current prices, as of March 8 last year, Bengal’s rank has improved from 15th in 2011-12 to 13th in 2016-17. However, going by constant prices (2011-12), its ranking has not changed. A major reason for the state’s high debt burden has been the low collection of its own tax revenue, or OTR. The Niti Aayog-sponsored study said, “It is the nature of economic growth in West Bengal that is problematic since it is driven by the unorganised sector.” This, in turn, led to lower revenue generation as the economy was “dominated by ‘hard-to-tax’ sectors, with a vast and expanding unorganised sector”.
2
What were you expecting? What deep meaning were you looking for? I am sure you just walted into this discussion randomly.
1
@sjgghosh7677 Shutting was suggested by WHO, otherwise a lot more people would have died. Modi has no choice, as mostly people in India belong to the informal sector. What did China do with their zero covid lockdown policy? Also, don' t compare with Bangladesh and Pakistan, as their population age is much lower than us. COVID took lives of a lot of elderly people living in sanitized conditions in cities. When Modi let states decide on themselves regarding lockdown, all the states pretty much followed the same recipe. Almost all states put a local lockdown, desperately waiting for vaccines. In my opinion, UPA government would have handled COVID much much worse. They would have written a blank cheque to Pfizer and Moderna and delivered their pricey vaccines, leaving no money for resurrection of the economy. I can go on and on about this.
1
@sjgghosh7677 Btw, negative growth rate happened because, GDP is calculated as follows: GDP = Gross value added (GVA) + Revenue collected - Stimulus. In pandemic GVA added was zero. However, because revenue collected tanked, the overall GDP growth rate went down. What economists fail to look at this instead of GDP growth rate, they should look at GVA. I am sorry for such wastage of milk. I am slowly transitioning into a vegan, so it pains me as to how much we milk animals to feed adults, though that is not your concern. At least, appreciate Modi for administering 2 billion shots in matter of a year.
1
@sjgghosh7677 Btw, Inflation is taken out from the real GDP calculation. So, don't bring that into the calculation. Also, GDP is a coarse number. As I said, I am only interested in GVA numbers. I need to see that to tell how the economy is performing. My sense is that the GVA is luke warm, but a lot of stimulus is being provided, which negates the overall GDP.
1
@sjgghosh7677 Do you mind if I ask what TMC has done in West Bengal, with so much debt to GSDP ratio, and virtually zero infra development? How does TMC gets elected time and again in West Bengal? Seems like ghoti Bengalis don't live in West Bengal anymore.
1
Compared to other countries. In hindsight, Sitharaman has done a good job. Negative growth was going to happen if you shut the economy. There are no two ways about it.
1
@Sjg Ghosh no big industry in WB. WB doesn't come into the top 10 industrial big states of India. Tell me one investment that Mamata has brought in after 15 years of rule. Look at the infra level of just Kolkata. It is to say the least pathetic. Also reducing inequality doesn't mean to make everyone poor.
1
@sjgghosh7677 Economy in Mamata’s Bengal Going by the size of the economy in terms of gross state domestic product, or GSDP, West Bengal ranked sixth among Indian states in 2011-12. Its rank remained the same in 2018-19 according to both current prices and constant (2011-12) prices.
1
In India job data is collected merely by survey, unlike in US where payroll data is used. Going forward, EPFO data should be believed, and not CMIE data. etc.
1
You didn't even listen to what he said. The government calibrated their stimulus to the economy so that India does not end in a terrible deficit like 9% of the GDP in UPA government (even though nothing like COVID happened during that time. You cannot compare 2009-09 economic collapse with COVID). It provided direct benefit transfer and bank credits to MSMEs (that are in the GST ambit), cushioned the blow greatly. Compare India's situation with any European country, UK, and even USA. These countries were reeling under recession even before Russia Ukraine war started.
1
@Sjg Ghosh then why does uddhav cry that Modi took all the fdi investments to Gujarat? Gujarat gets a lot of investment per capita. For its population, it gets a lot. UP is still a work in progress. Years of SP, BSP mafia raaj cannot change the picture immediately. Covid put a dent on a fledgiling UP.
1
@Sjg Ghosh what about the teacher's scam in WB? What effect it had, if any, on people's mind for TMC?
1
Reality is mixed. Get a grip on it.
1
The so-called experts have agenda. We all know what connections those economists have with Congress and other opposition parties.
1
Please read a latest article from IE that the Russian oil is merely saving less than 2 billion dollars per year, because INdia has to spend money on the insurance of the oil fleet. Earlier, the supplier would take care of that.
1
@callofgamer4940 We don't know about that.
1
@ क्या रे i think the effect of demo is overblown. There are other factors that are denting MSMEs. The first one is GST, which makes MSMEs to declare and pay taxes. In all these years, MSMEs were thriving not due to profits but by avoiding paying taxes. Now they have to, so that is why they are hurting. Second, since 2016 Trump came to power deglobalization started, which led to slowdown in world growth due to tariffs, etc. Because our MSMEs are not competitive, they find it hard to survive in this climate. The effect of notebandi was fleeting. Hope that explains to you. I am happy to engage in more civil conversation.
1
@bhai857 I think government is giving a lot of bank credit loans to MSMEs. These are available through fintech companies. I think there is a communication gap. Still, I know a lot of MSMEs are not into formal economy, and they highly rely on NBFCs. I think MSMEs are not directly affected by global slowdown, but they are indirectly affected. These MSMEs in manufacturing sector supply to a lot of big manufacturing companies. As global demand cools, those MSMEs are eventually affected. I still think MSMEs are finding hard to pay taxes on their earnings. Therefore, they are not expanding as before, so as to save taxes. That is my opinion.
1
You are not even a subscriber. Why are you barking like a dog here?
1