Comments by "Богдан Беркут" (@user-wm5rt9pw5l) on "Джон Миршаймер: Израиль-Палестина, Россия-Украина, Китай, НАТО и война | Лекс Фридман Подкаст #401" video.

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  11.  @velizhan  Mearsheimer started talking about "Ukraine is a de facto member of NATO" recently when he realized that this was the weak part of his argument, no one expected that Ukraine would become a member of NATO in the near future or at all (as long as part of the Ukrainian territory was captured by Russia) and therefore Russia did not have reasons for the invasion. Let's look at the issue of Ukraine's "de facto" membership in NATO. What is this even supposed to mean? Is Ukraine protected by article 5? No. Does Ukraine have the infrastructure to host NATO forces? No. Are NATO troops stationed in Ukraine? No. Does Ukraine have foreign bases? No. In no way could Ukraine be considered even close to being part of the “Western” bloc before the 2022 war. It's a bullshit. Let's look at the issue of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO. Is Mearsheimer suggesting that Ukraine, having lost some territory in 2014-15, should NOT have sought help from the West? This is madness. Is Mearsheimer suggesting that the "West" should have denied Ukraine any assistance, even soft ones like consultations or joint exercises, thereby sending a signal to Russia that it could continue its aggression without interference? This is absolute madness. Ukraine and NATO have been cooperating since the early 2000s, like many other countries. Ukraine has taken part in peacekeeping operations with NATO like many other countries. Ukraine strives for intercompatibility with NATO troops, like many other countries, including definitely neutral ones like Ireland, Austria or, until recently, Sweden and Finland. If this is a red line beyond which Russia can attack a country, then there will be many countries on its list and even some of the CSTO members.
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  19. ​ @ムャlechat  Yes, I will demonstrate this using the example of the war in Ukraine because I can talk with confidence on this topic. Mearsheimer's main argument regarding the cause of the war in Ukraine is "NATO's eastward expansion" because of which Putin was "forced" to attack Ukraine to ensure Russia's security. Firstly, in reality there was no threat of Ukraine’s admission to NATO. It was not in 2014 because, in response to Putin’s “Munich speech” in 2007, France and Germany froze Ukraine’s progress towards NATO by blocking the provision of a membership plan to Ukraine in 2008. Since 2014, the admission of Ukraine to NATO is fundamentally impossible because Ukraine is a country with a territorial dispute (Crimea) and an active military conflict (Donbass). Both conflicts involve Russia - the largest state in the world, a nuclear superpower, the leader of the second most powerful military bloc in the world. NATO members would never vote (the consent of all members is required) to accept Ukraine into the alliance, regardless of the US position on the issue. Secondly, if you look at the territories that Russia has annexed you can see that it strives to hold on to territories far in the south of Ukraine (where the majority of the Russian population is) while at the same time there is no “new territory” between the Ukrainian border and the Russian heartland in the north. Why? Mearsheimer also constantly contradicts himself by asserting that Russia did not want to capture all of Ukraine or, in particular, Kyiv, but this is exactly what Russia should have done “to ensure its security,” either by capturing Ukraine or changing the regime in it. Both of these actions would lead to the creation of buffer areas. Thirdly, Mearsheimer ignores and lies about Putin’s pronounced revanchist worldview because it contradicts his narrative. In 2014, Putin and his propaganda unexpectedly resurrected the term “Novorossiya”, forgotten 200 years ago, trying to prove that in the southeast of Ukraine there is a uniform Russian ethnocultural region that unfairly fell under the rule of Kyiv. At the same time, Russian proxies tried to separate these territories (they almost completely failed, success was only in part of Donbass, and Crimea was captured by the Russian army). Half a year before the war, Putin wrote an essay in which he tried to prove that a separate Ukrainian nation does not exist. In particular, in his retelling of history, he called all attempts by Ukrainians to gain independence “the machinations of hostile forces aimed at separating the historical part of Russia” Three days before the war, Putin gave an hour-long lecture in which he tried to prove (partially repeating the mentioned article) that "communists created a Ukrainian state” on the “historical lands of Russia” “on which millions of Russians ended up against their will.” On the day the war began, his address included the phrase “I will show you decommunization!” which hinted at his frustration regarding the condemnation of Soviet totalitarianism in Ukraine and at the same time was a threat to destroy the Ukrainian state, which he considers a failed experiment of the communists. I hope my answer is comprehensive.
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