Youtube hearted comments of Patrick Donnolley (@ph89787).
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If CarDiv 5 is replaced with CarDiv 2 at Coral Sea. It might be a bloodier tactical victory for the IJN. If I recall Shattered Sword correctly, Soryu and Hiryu had highly trained and experienced pilots. But their main strength came from Dive Bombing. So highly likely that Lexington may take 3 Torpedoes and another 1 or 2 Bomb hits. Which may sink Lexington outright. Whereas Yorktown may avoid the Torpedoes, she may take similar damage to Enterprise at Eastern Solomons. So 3-4 550lb Bomb hits, which is survivable but would mean Yorktown would not entirely be ready for Midway. Unless the damage control crews and later the shipyard workers at Pearl Harbor are being Intravenously fed coffee.
Soryu is smaller than Shokaku and arguably more maneuverable. The issue is that she is also more fragile regarding bomb hits. For the sake of argument, Soryu still takes 3 hits. The explosions could catch something flammable like her Avgas system, even without aircraft in the hangar. Also, if one of the hits lands next to her stack, like at Midway and penetrates the lower hangar. Then it could damage or destroy her boiler and engine rooms leaving her dead in the water.
Fast forward to Midway, and Shokaku and Zuikaku, for the sake of argument, are loaded with the same numbers of Aircraft as at Coral Sea. That's 21 Zeroes for Shokaku and 25 Zeroes for Zuikaku. 20 Vals for Shokaku and 22 Vals for Zuikaku, and 19 and 20 Kates for Shokaku and Zuikaku, respectively. Also, there are deck plans of Shokaku and Zuikaku's hangar decks, complete with aircraft spots. Assuming that the events leading up to and during the "Dauntless Ex Machina" occur similarly. Shokaku may end up like Franklin in that it would be a long, bloody and fiery battle with a slight chance of survival. But without the redundancies in here, damage control systems and the open hangar to vent the explosions, fire and smoke. She may go the same way as Akagi and Kaga. Zuikaku if caught in the same circumstances as Hiyru (closed in on TF16 and TF17 and lost most of its air group). Then it could take the 4x 1000lb bomb hits. As Shokaku survived a similar number at Santa Cruz. Of course, if those aircraft are full and ready for another strike, it would cause a fuel-air explosion. Resulting in Zuikaku being sunk outright or being scuttled. Being close to Midway would mean that even if the damage control crews worked through the night to get the fires under control. She may be spotted and tracked by radar-equipped PBYs and be finished off by Enterprise and Hornet the following morning.
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