Comments by "" (@johnshepherd8687) on "Battle of Samar - What if TF34 was there?" video.

And what if the New Jersey got a lucky Hood-like hit on the Yamato? I think Drach bent over backwards to give the Japanese a fighting chance. Lee knew gunnery and he knew radar and would have used it to its maximum advantage. He would have opened fire at very long range because radar directed gunfire is fired directly at the target. You won't score many hits at 30kyds but you will score. I would expect that the Nagato and two Kongos to be severely degraded before they could effectively engage the US ships and Yamato would be engaged by the two Iowas by the time the range closed. The night before West Virginia, equipped with the Mkk 8 FC radar, scored first salvo hits at 20kyds. As long as the Mk 8 is functional Yamato is going to be hit at least once every salvo once the range closes enough for Yamato to actually hit anything.
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A very timely video. I was looking for an opportunity to observe that Halsey's decision to go North with all the Battleships ended up confirming the view that battleships were obsolete. Had Halsey ordered the battleships to guard the San Bernardino strait the history the battle would read like Halsey sank the decoy carrier force, TF 34 assisted by Taffys 1-3 defeated the main Japanese battleforce the way it was envisioned in the mid 1930s, and Seventh fleet destroyed the Japanese southern force in a night engagement. The battleship would have lived on and only put in reserve because there was no other Navy that posed a surface threat that could not be handled with the remaining gun cruisers. I could see USS Kentucky being completed after the war, the South Dakota and KGV classes not being scraped until the lates 60s and HMS Vanguard being kept reserve into the next decade. I have my own ideas about the battle would go that don't change the outcome but are more realistic in terms of how Lee would have fought the battle. As the previous night action showed, radar directed gunnery has no need to find the range. West Virginia had first salvo hits at 20kyds. You are always shooting at the target and don't to find range as you do with optical sensors . Lee would probably have opened fire at 30kyds and tried keep the range over 20kyds until he degraded the Japanese capital ships. The US battleships would not have to score many hits to degrade the Nagato and the Kongos to take them out of the fight so the US could concentrate on the Yamato sooner. The objective would reduce the Japanese combat effectiveness making closing the range to under 20kyds less risky. Lee also would have notified the escort carrier groups that he was about to engage the Japanese at first light. The carriers would have aircraft in the air when the battle started. Knowing aviators, they would strike first sizable force that they saw. That would be the cruisers and destroyers. So the light forces battle would go to the US forces before the Japanese cruisers came within effect gun range. Later strikes would be directed at the surviving Japanese capital ships. But let's get real. Kurita did not view this as a suicide mission. As soon as he saw Lee he would withdrawn leaving Nagato and some of his light forces to fight a sacrificial rearguard action so he could escape.
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@bkjeong4302 it is more than enough to take out the Nagato and two Kongos at those ranges. The US ships had a higher hit probability at those ranges than the Japanese using optical fire control and while the probability of hitting the Japanese beyond 25kyds is small it is better than basically no chance for the Yamato.
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On the contrary, this is not a could have it is a should have. The only reason the battleships weren't there in the first place is because Halsey screwed up.
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Given that the major action in battle would have been surface engagements I think the balance of opinion would have shifted toward keeping them. What really did in the battleship was that only the US, UK and France would have had them. Battleships are expensive to operate and with heavy cruisers able handle any existing surface threat they would disappeared anyway. The Kentucky probably would have ve completed and some KGVs, Vanguard and the South Dakotas would probably have been retained in reserve longer but that is probably the only difference.
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Why wouldn't Lee use a smoke screen offensively? He can blind fire while Kurita cannot.
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@jakemillar649 Filmed on location. The Navy wasn't going to send ships to see just so they could film. Most of the audience would not have noticed anyway
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@Drachinifel That is assuming the Lee did not communicate his intentions to the 7th Fleet carriers or that they were monitoring Lee's radio traffic. In either case the carriers would have been prepping aircraft for surface attack before the engagement started.
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@willcruz943 I don't think TF 38.1 would be recalled any sooner than it was. If the battle goes as Drach has it then they wouldn't be recalled at all and if Kurita decides to cut his losses they wouldn't make it back in time to catch the retreating survivors.
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I think drach bent over backwards to make it any kind of fight. Lee would have known that the Yamato was the only real threat and would not have spent time finishing off the three older ships. As soon as each was rendered combat ineffective the US ship would move on. The Kongos are basically Lion class battlecruisers which got seriously beat up by German 12"/900 lb rounds. It would not take many 16" hit to put a Kongo out action for all practical purposes and long range hits are going to be plunging fire with a reasonable probability of a single shot mission kill. There was also weather in the area which drach did not account for. I am sure Lee would have used it to his advantage since all four battleships had blind fire capability as demonstrate the previous night at Surigao Strait. The West Virginia had multiple first salvo hits at 20k yards without actually getting a visual on the target.
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@bkjeong4302 You don't sit at 30kyds at shoot all day, you start shooting at 30ky because you might land a hit or two as you close the range. At 25kyds you start hitting at a rate of about a round a salvo with the Mk 8 FC Radar. The West Virginia landed first salvo hits at 20Kyds using the same system. You don't have to find the range with the Mk 8. You shoot directly at the target. Radar directed gunnery is the big US advantage. A few hits on Yamato won't make a big difference unless you get lucky but there is a high probability that a couple of hits on the other three capital ships will take them out of the fight before they can return fire.
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@bkjeong4302 Radar FC systems give precise information on range, speed and course. You don't adjust fire like you do with conventional optical fc system. You are always on target. First to hit is a big advantage even against a heavily armored target like Yamato. If it takes 5 minutes to close to 25kyds where you begin to have a reasonable chance to hit your target is a mere 45 rounds down range. Getting a hit or two or even a few near misses sets the table for a bigger advantage later. As far as the other targets go, putting them out of action either through a catastrophic hit or sufficient damage to slow them down sooner rather than later allows you to put more barrels on the real threat before the Yamato can start scoring hits. It is better to open fire at long range than wait until you are vulnerable.
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@Genktarov The battleships would still end up in reserve because there was no one left with capital ships to fight and they are expensive to operate. However, the story of the battleship would have been rewritten since they would have proven to be the decisive weapon for the biggest naval battle in history. Therefore, I believe the newer American and British battleships would remain in reserve longer than they did historically. At least some of the KGVs would have been disposed in late 60s instead of earlier and Vangaurd might have been around until the end of the 70s. One or more of them might have been preserved as a museum ship instead of going to the breakers.. Disposing of the South Dakotas would also have been delayed as well. I also think the Kentucky would have been finished.
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@bkjeong4302 I did some research on accuracy of the Mk 8 FC system. The range error is inside the beam of all the Japanese capital ships. There is a bearing error but the CEP of the fall of shot is larger at 30kyds. That is why the hit probability is low not because of an inaccurate firing solution. You underestimate the effect of 1 or 2 hits on the Japanese as the range closes. It probably won't make the huge difference on Yamato unless you get lucky and take primary fire contro or CDC a turrel but a couple of long range hits on the other three capital ships has a good chance of taking one of the ships out the fight long enough to double team the Yamato. That is a must even though the US believed that she only had 16" guns. One thing you learn in armed self defense is the first to hit is the likely winner. Same thing applies to a naval gunfight.
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@John McCalmont As BK points out the probability of an Iowa scoring a hit at 30kyds is about 3%. The Yamato firing at ranges beyond 25kyds with an optical fire control system is practically zero. Could she get a lucky catastrophic hit? People win the big prize in Powerball. It isn't the range that is a problem, it's weight and bursting charge that is the threat.
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@jamesb4789 The Japanese only had surface search radar. They never developed fire control radar.
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@bkjeong4302 I suggest you read Trent Hone's book. US doctrine was to begin the engagement at extreme range to disrupt enemy formations and put them on the defensive. By doctrine Lee would have begun the engagement at a minimum of 30kyds. It would give Kurita the choice of plowing on to keep his formation intact knowing that a long range hit on his Kongos and probably the Nagato could be a mission kill or disrupting his formation by maneuvering. TF 34 had the ability to fire accurately and maneuver at the same tine.
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@bkjeong4302 You obviously do not understand the US Navy's battle doctrine. The goal of extreme long range fire was not to score hits but to disrupt the enemy battle formation so you can grab the initiative and the put your opponent on the defensive. I will take Trent Hone's expertise over yours. And you clearly do not understand how the MK 8 FCS worked. Its error in range and bearing were less than the footprint of capital ship out to the maximum range. You want to talk postwar testing? During a test the USS Massachusetts was able to maintain a continuous fire control solution while going through high speed radical maneuvers. Radar directed fire control does not work like an optical system. The range error is constant whereas in an optical system the error increases with range. The difference between the early war Mk 3 and the mid to late war Mk 8 is bearing error. The Mk 3 required optical validation of bearing. The Mk 8 didn't which is why you could blind fire with it. You don't call the fall of shot with a radar system. You have the range. The range error on the Mk 3 was 40 yards and 15 yards on the Mk 8. Plus or minus 15 yards is less than beam of a contemporary capital ship.
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@bkjeong4302 By ignoring doctrine you have created a strawman. The doctrine specifies that the purpose of very long range fire is to disrupt not necessarily to hit. If you are in the vicinity your opponent has to react. Have you read US Navy interwar firing doctrine and understand its purpose, yes or no?
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@bkjeong4302 It's still going to be a straddle which mean they know you have range and they don't. You want to stake your ship on "they can't me?" That forces them to evade as the range closes which makes countertargeting near impossible. They could sail blissfully on until they start getting hit but that is unlikely. The superheavy shell is product of this long range engagement doctrine. They expected to get consistent hits at 25kyds and occasional hits beyond that. I think Surigao Strait validated the system. Admiral Lee was brilliant guy but he didn't have a time machine to show him what the postwar experimental results were so he would have gone with doctrine. I think he still would have opened at long range even if he knew. The first rule of a gunfight, be it with a 9mm or 406mm, is you can do no wrong by putting rounds downrange.
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@bkjeong4302 You are making a strawman argument. The doctrine was not about getting hits at extreme range although that would be a plus. It was disrupting the enemy's formation and putting him on the defenses. You keep ignoring that. The fall of shot follows bivariate normal distribution so any salvo will bracket the target. A hypothetical engagement at San Bernardino Strait is many on many so with geysers sprouting all around I don't think Kurita is going ignore it and plow straight on. Besides if he is column that 500 yard miss dead astern is hit on a trailing ship. A multiship engagement is more complex then you acknowledge. West Virginia got multiple hits on Yamishiro at 23kyds on the first salvo. That is how precise the MK 8 targeting solution was. Optical FCS takes 3-5 salvos to get the range right if neither ship is maneuvering. You never answered question on whether you have read US surface engagement doctrine from the period. I assume the answer is no since you continue with your strawman argument.
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Yes, even if Lee did not inform the Taffy Groups of his intentions directly they would have been monitoring communication and would be launching aircraft at dawn.
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