Comments by "" (@FOLIPE) on "Why The Demographic Decline Of The Developed World Is A Disaster" video.

I strongly suspect fertility rate in Paraguay is under 2.1. Their 2022 census came with 1.4 million less people than expected, in a country of 6.1m people, that's massive (should have been 7.5m)! It is not just emigration either, it is poorly done projections from the 2002 census since the 2012 census was also bad. They estimated a fertility rate (2.5) which is probably much higher than the real one (we'll know when the final data of their census is released). Point in question: fertility might well be falling faster than estimated in countries with poor measurements.
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@mattllaves Brazilin immigrants raise the Portuguese fertility too. It is low in Brazil, but in Portugal it is even lower (hyper-low). Besides immigrants will always have more children than normal people, as a population, because they tend to be more in the right age to have children, while in a normal population you have kids and elders.
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 @mamadoufall5940 It won't take 200 years, more like 30-40 like in south east Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, is my guess
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@DavidGuesswhat Pretty much all Brazilians are mixed, from every region, including of course the south, although the european weight there was obviously higher, it wasn't even overwhelming, let alone all there was to it. The importance of German migration in Brazil is one of the most overstate things about that country, too (only 200 thousand people more or less, about the same as Japanese, albeit earlier). White Brazilians are mostly mixed, they just "look white" and that is in Brazil and to Brazilian eyes.
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@DavidGuesswhat That's absurd, all of Brazil received few people of German and austrian origin, and RS was already a very populous state. Except some town let's which are very exceptional, there's nothing close to a "prevalece" of German anything. It's important to note that the whole south of Brazil received less European immigrants than South Africa after independence. If they are mostly white-looking while south africa is black, is because Brazilians from that region were already predominantly European (of Portuguese roots) when migration came.
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Argentinean fertility is also well bellow 2 now, since the mid 2010s. The thing is they are relatively young, have net positive migration rates, so their population continues to grow.🎉
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I don't think the situation in China is that bad, I've written that before but due to the past generations being of mostly pesants, they don't have such a lack of people as it would seem, and the people being retired won't be nearly as productive as the (smaller) new generations. Just to give an example, the number of STEM graduates in China went from 360k to 1.6m between 2000 and 2015. The US in the same period went from 500k to 750k.
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Highly urban, relatively educated, has been so for decades. It's not really surprising.
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 @DavidGuesswhat Nah, Brazilians in Portugal might be part Portuguese but they are mostly mixed, as are any Brazilians.
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@tiagomd3811 Indeed the case of Paraguay is just more extreme as data has been worse
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Exactly, and even rural workers are much less productive. 20 years ago China was Algeria, now it's Croatia. The generational gap is immense.
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There's nothing unusual about a country becoming a Middle income economy. China is becoming a high income economy now but becoming a mid-income economy of the level of Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Thailand, Malaysia is almost a given, I'd say, for a country in the conditions of India. This is at least doubling to tripling their income per capita as a proportion of the developed countries in the next decades.
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The error was of 12m and the estimation had been 215m, if I'm not mistaken (population count was 203m as you said). The largest estimates of emigration I have seen were of 4m, plus we had covid causing maybe an extra 1m deaths, so we can guesstimate the number of births was 7ish million less than expected. It's a lot (20%+ less than expected) and it's concerning because we already had a low fertility in 2010, but surely it was hit harder than expected due to the economic crisis too (in Argentina the rate plummeted after their 2015 crisis).
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@kaiserbauch9092 I have statistics which show that brazilian born women in fact had higher fertility rate than immigrant women from the census of the time lmao and this is before we consider that children of immigrant inhabited mostly cities in mostly south and southeastern Brazil so while surely there's been over time and with mixing a convergence, it's almost a statistical necessity that they had lower fertility rates than people with less immigrant ancestry
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@WilliamSantos-cv8rr I was talking about national predictions which use the best available data, updating for falling fertility over thee years and more closely tracking reality. I don't know this UN estimate of 218m you refer to. Anyway 8m Brazilian overseas is unlikely, but that'd a stock anyway, I'm talking of flow in the last 10 years, which adds to the stock but doesn't mean it. These embassy numbers are known to be overestiimations and of course they count Brazilians descendants. I doubt there are 8m Brazilians overseas as the largest communities are the one in the US, Portugal (0.5-1m) and then the others (Japan, Paraguay etc) all have well below half a million. At most I suspect there are 5-6m Brazilians + immediate descendants overseas. Also, to be honest I don't believe 4m people left the country in the last 12 years (we can't find that growth in the numbers of brazilians overseas like Portugal and Japan, let alone Paraguay). If I had to throw a guesstimate, I'd say there are 5-6m Brazilians and descendants overseas, 1.5-2m which left in the last 12 years.
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@WilliamSantos-cv8rr There's not sizeable Brazilian communities everywhere in the world. A few hundred people in a few major cities may feel like a lot for someone in the bubble but it doesn't make a dent demographically speaking. Basically, where are the hundreds of thousands? The mass migration? Even 5-6m as I claimed is a gigantic number, and where are these people? There isn't enough large communities of Brazilians overseas to account for that... Emigration from Brazil, if it were at the numbers you are talking about, would be closer to twice the number of Moroccans outside of that country. Barred polish-Americans, you are claiming there are as many Brazilians overseas as poles and polish descendents. But where? Not half of people living in Portugal are Brazilian, and yet it's the second community overseas. Giving the same numbers for Brazil and countries like Morocco and Poland is not credible, given the sources we have.
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@waynesworldofsci-tech It was barely above 2 and had been falling (albeit more slowly than in other developing countries, also started earlier) for decades before. I admit Argentina maybe has something to teach others but it wasn't such an extreme case either, there are other developer countries with similar fertility rates like the US and France. I'd disagree with the idea that Argentina "should be" rich. Any country can be rich with the right situation, Argentina was lucky once and hasn't able to reproduce that luck in 100+y, because their development model was driven by external choices and demand
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