Comments by "Neolithic Transit Revolution" (@neolithictransitrevolution427) on "How Is China Shaping The New World Order?" video.

The property crash is an intentional result of Chinese policy to lower housing prices and reduce building. Exports and FDI are due to sanctions, and imports being down is in some ways beneficial, the chip war being the main issue. I expect exports to pick back up in the second half of the decade and Chinese solar panels begin being exported. Deflation is again partially intentional. Youth unemployment is not homogeneous, and mainly effects rural uneducated youth and woman who are being pushed to have kids instead of work. I agree China has substantial issues, the aging demographic key among them, but they used the demographic well to create a surplus of infrastructure, housing, and renewable energy going forward. I expect them to enter a recession in the next year, but I don't expect anything near a depression.
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So... Somalia is the only non-autocracy? It's not exactly a role model.
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@TheGrace020 don't underestimate your enemy.
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@philjameson292 if India can can it's sh*t together. They are, like China, aiming to use renewables to shoot forward with aggressive plans (in action) to build domestic supply chains. But the issue is they have no manufacturing outside of that, they are more energy import dependent than China, and franking they are still the r@pe capital of the world, outside cities the people are still very... Traditional. Which doesn't make for great social systems in the current era. But if the renewable push works to build a high tech manufacturing sector, they have the world's best location for cheap renewable energy, and could see very low cost manufacturing between energy and labour cost.
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@russellrhoades3044 I have to say, I disagree broadly. Solar prices have dropped to the lowest cost of production, particularly on longer timescales. There is a reason Texas of all places builds enormous amounts. I think they are very likely to pull off the heist. Even outside of economics, they have strong strategic incentives, including the above mentioned impact to North American economies. Belt and road certainly had mixed results, but it's given China enormous influence in Pakistan and Africa. And most of the high-speed rail net work does make a profit, only the long distance lines to very rural areas like Tibet or Xinjiang are lose money, but again that has much more to do with strategic policy. As for the last point I think it's quite difficult to argue China consumes more than it produces.
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@shafsteryellow you missed Kenya, but I agree it's a bad neighborhood and I'm not saying a dictatorship would make Somalia better. I am saying Japan and Singapore are basically one party dictatorships, and pretty good though.
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I think we'll see a second strengthing of China as their renewable roll out plateaus and they being exporting massive quantities of Solar and Wind. Cheap Chinese solar will be very powerful across the MENA region and south Asia, and their energy independence will remove a major weakness of the economy.
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Biggest thing - Oil and Energy independence. China is pushing hard, very hard, on building out EVs and renewables and making incredible progress. At the same time, they are increasing oil production yearly. I'm Canadian, and I see this in part as an attack on US and Canadian oil production. A sharp decline in prices from loss of Chinese (and US and EU) demand is going to crash the high production cost oil in Canada and the US, and trigger a recession.
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@taxirob2248 last year China built more solar than in use across all of Europe. That's the scale of the manufacturing, that it's grown from almost non-existent to 8% of electrical output in 3 years. They have the manufacturing to produce something like 10% of their entire system capacity, the largest energy user in the world, a year in Solar panels. I could not care less about China burning coal today or next year. What I care about is that a third of vehicles sold in China last year were EVs. They haven't done all this as some Psych op. It's literally meant to be the foundation of their economy for the next 30 years. They are absolutely buying enormous quantities of renewables and Electric vehicles. They're doing it because they are afraid of being dependent on energy imports (and only have 30 years of coal reserves), because they want to be the energy exporter, and because collapsing oil demand will destroy American Fracking and Canadian oil sands Mining. And I care because while it will put the US in recession, it's going to send Canada into an absolute depression. Also, a great deal of the hydroelectric growth has been pumped storage to store energy from renewables.
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@aachoocrony5754 bra you've made like a dozen comments all seem to be trolling. I'll take you seriously for one reply but not if you repeat. What are you trying to say? That China won't have an loss of growth? I think given the reigning in of both local government debt and construction debt, the two engines of China, it's very unlikely there isn't at least a technical recession. Frankly, I think it's being well handled and I have a lot of respect for CCP economic policy. I don't think the average person will see loss of quality of life. But the upper middle class and upper class will and are certainly seeing a loss of wealth. Suggesting growth is going to continue as the government actively reigns it in on one hand and the west cuts investment and imports on the other is ideological at best imo.
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@aachoocrony5754 not sure how rising housing prices make me poorer there chief since I own a house. China owned something like 4% of US debt at peak and it's now something like 2% so I think you're flexing a little to hard. Certainly agree the US became reliant on China in the 2000s via trade but now the US has the IRA and China can't get microchips. What's with all the elephants and Pluto's? is that like a Chinese proverb?
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With a few small Changes I think China's system could constitute a democracy, if of a different form, and I agree with your point
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@Dman6779 lol this has nothing with a "petrodollar" it wouldn't matter if we used clam shells as currency, the issue is the US and Canada rely heavily on petroleum exports, and China as the world's largest importer as the dual incentive of cutting demand to improve its trade position and push North America into recession. The price of oil has to do with the profitability of producing it, and shale fracking and oil sands mining isn't cheap. Low oil prices bother the Saudis and Russians but they kill us. I'm not clear where your rant is going at the end. Yes we need to move off oil. We don't need to see the North American industry collapse while low prices push the rest of the world to use more and us to import it. If you want to reduce oil use, you want high prices.
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@Dman6779 I'm going to start by saying Ukrainian bombing of Russian refineries doesn't really impact US oil prices, Biden is more concerned about the appearance as he goes into an election, and of trying to lower global inflation and global oil prices, both to lower the cost of imports and bring supply chain inflation down, and to maintain European support. To your TL;DR, I agree completely, losing energy security is exactly what I'm afraid of, I don't want a crash in prices destroying the North American Oil industries and making us reliant on imports of both oil and Chinese renewables. oil has a massive effect on the economy because it fuels cars and transport, Petro chemicals in the North East and Gulf coast, is a major part of the economy in the South west, and represents 15% of US exports and is a major component to the balance of trade. In Canada it's not only 15% of exports, Alberta is also the region with the highest per capita incomes, and many of those jobs are oil sands related. Our progressive tax system will mean that a very large drop in income tax revenue is at stake, along with a large portion of Albertas government royalties, and Federal revenue for oil. Oil sands mining, where a lot of the good blue collar jobs are focused, is a very regional affair focused in fort McMurray, and those Mining jobs won't survive a year of low prices. So you're looking at a sizable city in complete collapse, a provincial depression as 10s of thousands of the provinces highest earners going on Unemployment and oil taxes disappear, and a national depression as a dollar weaken with our balance of trade, banks (particularly RBC) see massive losses, our precarious property market dies, and our Stock market crashes. But I see what you are saying, and I would like to see a smart wind down of the oil industry toward geothermal (Eavor is a promising company) with fracking and SAGD oil sands in particular being technologies well suited to have investment redirected to digging wells and pumping hot fluid. I'm Canadian, and I really want to see more material manufacturering with bitumen production to diversify the oil sands industry itself. Bitumen has an advantage in producing Carbon Fiber, and I would like to see Alberta become a major producer on the global market. I'd also like to see the NG industry refocus toward hydrogen production, although generally I support the LNG operations in the US Gulf (although Canadian LNG is largely DOA). And of course greater diversity of industry in general in building solar and wind and EVs, and in Canada in particular Mining material for supply chains. But that doesn't just happen. It certainly doesn't happen if the industry collapses and government revenues collapse. You need to develop technologies, build infrastructure, attact or invest in manufacturing. I think this is very urgent, but the times lines to open a mine are still a decade. And China isn't cutting its oil demand because it's worried about climate change, it's trying to beat us in a race that will decide where energy comes from. I'd also like to see a Pipeline Called eagle spirit built to bring another Mbbl/d to the Pacific, although I'm against DilBit exports on the North coast, but I'd like to see a large 100kbbl/d asphalt plant, a 200kbbl/d Diesel specific plant, a 300kbbl/d refinery tuned to Californian standards and that can supply Jet fuel to Vancouver, and a 400kbbl/d partial upgrade to sell a Heavy Syncrude to Asia/California. Which maybe you're not going to love, but right now 90% of our exports go to Chicago, and I'd like to see that getting a better price.
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@2drealms196 I agree with all this. Again China certainly has issues. And as those prices come down I expect a technical recession and loss of wealth among the middle class. But a Great Depression level slow down is not something I expect
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@Black_Sun_Dark_Star China only owns like 2%, maybe another percent secretly in the Bahamas. Japan is something like 5%. I mean it's still a lot of money but I wouldn't say much of it.
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What's never mentioned is the students in Tiananmen square were hard core communists against market reforms.
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Idk why my comment didn't post, but it's never mentioned the students killed in the square were actually hard line communists against market reforms. The US has killed a few communists to.
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