Comments by "Luredreier" (@Luredreier) on "Norway's Upcoming Election: Will They Abandon Europe? - TLDR News" video.
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@hokton8555 H and FrP where in a coalition from 2013 to 2020.
V was a part of the coalition from 2018.
KrF from 2019, and FrP left the coalition last year.
The two centrist parties doesn't want to be in a coalition with FrP at all, H want all four of them.
FrP wants just H.
On the left wing side SP doesn't want R, SV or MDG, just Ap.
Ap wants SV and SP but not R or MDG.
SV wants AP, R and MDG but not SP.
MDG definitely does not want FrP, but the younger members also managed to push through a preference for the left wing in the party congress, so they want the same SV, R, Ap and MDG option that SV does.
V and KrF wants a H, V, KrF cabinet, but I think they're open for including MDG, not that it matters much.
SV, SP and AP looks like they're going to have enough seats themselves to get the cabinet.
But SV still would like to get MDG and R included to weaken the bargaining power of SP.
And both SV and SP knows that they'll need each other if they want a left wing cabinet.
Theoretically AP or SP could of course enter a coalition with H.
But a large part of the reason why SP has been growing is the centralization policies carried out by H.
So I doubt that SP would go that way, their voters wouldn't like that this election.
And AP would like to have the prime minister and to have the most power in a coalition as the biggest party in the country, and they're used to opposing H, so I doubt that they would accept a coalition with H.
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@paul1979uk2000 The difference is that in Norway and Switzerland those EU directives are implement by our own laws and legal agreements and we have the right to end change or refrain from adopt them at will.
Yes, there would be consequences.
But the important thing to note here is that when it comes to the desire for freedom Norwegians and Switz people have more in common with the Afghans then the Germans despite being similar to Germans and Dutch people culturally.
Afganistan has been under many empires through the ages and would presumably have had a chance to get more infrastructure in those times, but self determination was more important.
The same is true for us.
We would prefer poverty to being ruled by outsiders.
We're also pragmatic and both can and will work with and cooperate with them, but only as independent entities.
I'm saying 200 years because that's 3-4 generations, and that should presumably be enough to change our culture.
But as long as our young people has a memory of our current culture, even if that's just as stories from grandparents, a federal or unitary union just won't work.
A confederal one would.
Our cooperation with the EU right now works well in part because it's relatively confederate at the moment, for instance with a lot of laws being goals that needs to be achieved with the local governments deciding on the details.
But a federal model is a stated goal for the union, and that's a big part of why we voted against joining *twice*.
We don't mind open borders, free trade, free movement of people, shared financial responsibility or any number of other values that the union wants us to adopt, most of these are shared values with us.
After all, Germanic speaking people with similar values are a big block within the union.
The problem is more one of principle of where the power originates.
And of how there's details about life in regions that central governments just never gets right.
Central governments are dominated by people from population centers, people from good farmlands, big cities, areas that's flat and "cultured".
These areas simple has a different history from us and different living conditions.
Privatized mail services or public transportation works well in areas with high population density allowing lowlanders to play with fancy theories about market economics and the principles of free markeds.
It's a bit harder to make that work in areas that has too low a population to make those things economically viable based on the realistic price of sale of these services.
There's no incentives left for quality of service, only for cost cuts at the expense of quality and finding loopholes in the various government schemes to finance the whole thing.
Fewer trains post delivered on fewer days etc.
But for the nation as a whole these services while not used enough to justify their cost as companies does make sense for a nation as a whole due to enabling extraction of resources that would otherwise be unavailable, and also services that would otherwise be unavailable.
Nordic countries work under the assumption that everyone should have certain services and quality of life that would not be see as making sense commercially.
Just look at what kind of service that's available in Nuuk, Tórshavn, Kautokeino/Guovdageaidnu and so one and so forth.
We value our rural areas, and we will intentionally run at a loss at times that wouldn't make sense in a EU context.
These things are a big part of why we despite our intense individualism and regionalism still have functional nations of the sizes that you see.
Norway, Sweden, Denmark and so one, even Iceland would otherwise have been split up into many different nations a long time ago.
Switzerland has similar issues but solve those in part through their Canton system.
In these regions the natural country size is basically equal to a Swizz Canton.
Or in Norways case one or a few valleys joining together into a nation, or possibly a fjord.
And the long fjords might even be split up since people at the coast near the mouth of the fjord probably live very different lives from those further inland and have different needs.
The oil money helps, but honestly that plays a minor role in everything.
It all only works because we have electoral systems where people in rural areas are about as common as people from more urban areas in our government and legislative body.
We're more likely to have a civil war over the topic then to join the EU.
We've already had several governments that has fallen because of the union.
And our elite has learned that you don't try to join the EU if you want to stay in power.
The EEA is a compromise solution that works for us
No one is happy with it of course like with all good compromises.
But it's preferable to total chaos.
Honestly we'd probably be better "EU citizens" outside the union then we'd ever be within.
Many of us want a shared army with the union (in addition to the separate ones), to counter threats like the Russians.
Many of us want free movement of goods, services, money and people, but it needs to be on our terms, with the local possible compromises.
Giving our urban population the goods and services while the rural people gets the protectionism needed for our farms that can't compete with the lowlands due to a shorter season and worse farmlands, our fishermen wants to sell to the union and are more open to it then our farmers but it's still easier to get a sustainable compromise within the country or in bilateral deals with the union then when it's done at a union wide basis where countries far away that wouldn't be severely affected by overfishing and where people are more desperate for a income are the voter wants higher quotas then the fish actually can sustain.
And where the laws only relatively recently closed loopholes that lead to the dumping of tons of fish into the sea with no consequences to the quota despite huge numbers of fish dying.
We still have lands radiated after Chernobyl.
Temperatures that doesn't exist in the mainland continent.
And mountains and fjords that makes infrastructure difficult and cultures distinct.
We'll join the EU in many projects out of our own free will, from outside the union.
But the only way we'll actually join the union itself permanently is either if the union changes and either become more confereralized or tiered with optional tiers of involvement for members.
Or if there's a huge shift in our culture, a type of cultural shift that just takes generations to happen.
If we somehow by a miracle managed to join the EU right now it would be a disaster making Brexit seem like peanuts.
Long term, as in 7-8 generations down the line I can absolutely see us as a EU member.
But not now...
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@paul1979uk2000 The cost is high, no doubt.
But lower then it would have been as an actual EU member, as scrapping them as a member would entail leaving the whole of the EU just like the UK just did, while scrapping laws currently can be done without breaking any agreements with Europe and has even been conceded as permittable by the EU.
The EU might not like it but they're required to accept our veto by the terms of the agreement.
And yes, there's a implied and unofficial agreement about us not using it.
But even the fact that it is our choice not to scrap said EU laws is more important then any involvement in making said laws ever can be.
It's all about self determination.
And yes, if we ever gets to a point where we scrap so many laws that the EU find themselves wanting to end the EEA agreements or if they want to punish us for our actions that's of course within their rights and would be a problem for us.
But still, us having that fundamental power to veto them and making our own laws is important to us.
More important then forming those EU laws in the first place.
And furthermore the EU laws we follow are still formally made legally valid through the power of our parliament not by the EU.
So a bottom up power structure.
We need to be a separate legal entity.
That's not going to change in many generations.
The actual laws we follow is less important then who sign them into law.
Yes, we're currently following EU law practically to the letter, but it is we who are choosing to do so, not Brussel, and that matters to us.
As long as the EU laws in question are not unreasonable that's a arrangement we can live with.
But there's a growing number of EU laws that has worked poorly for us and that is causing frustration here.
At some point things will have to change.
And that change will most likely come in the form of some new renegotiated deal with the EU where we'll give up something else and get something in return.
That's also going to be a compromise of some kind.
The Brexiters are unrealistic.
There is an unequal power balance at play.
And even if there wasn't there's always some given and take in interantional agreements, compromises.
Where neither side are entierly happy.
The same applies to us.
We're not going to get our freedom for free.
We'll have to make some sacrifices or other in order to get them.
But we also have some cards up our sleeves too that the EU wants.
So it won't be entierly one way either.
Like I said, it'll be some give and take.
And honestly I have faith in Norwegian negotiators.
We're not in a rush with changing the EEA.
I think we probably should start negotiations with the EU about a future deal to replace it together with Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland and the UK, although I don't know if including the EU in the final deal is a good idea or not as they want different things then us.
We'll have plenty of time.
We've had negotiations that took 50+ years with the Russians.
Negotiating with the EU for 50-60 years is perfectly fine, and we'll be happy with having the EEA agreements in the meantime.
And we'll integrate further with the EU too in other areas.
Our voluntary integration with the EU in a number of other areas is helping foster good will, that might help during those negotiations.
As for the current EEA agreement.
While we don't have voting rights in the EU we do have a right to be consulted with regards to EU laws that impact us if I don't remember wrong.
So it's not like we have zero impact on the laws.
The EU can of course still pass said laws after we express that a law is undesired by us, but at least the EU lawmakers have to be aware of our point of view when making said laws.
That's more then a lot of areas in Europe that's within the EU can say.
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