Comments by "Steve Valley" (@stevevalley7835) on "Learning about the Imperial German Navy - Introductory book recommendations" video.
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@AdelineLowry That is the nightmare scenario I have offered in the past: leave Pearl alone, and only attack the Philippines. Because the US had not swept up all the Spanish colonies in the Pacific, but only the best parts, the Philippines and Guam, Spain sold the rest of it's holdings, the balance of the Marianas, Carolines, and Marshalls, to Germany. The Japanese swept up all these islands during WWI, and held them after the war under a League of Nations mandate. For the USN to get a relief expedition to the Philippines, it would need to traverse a shooting gallery of Japanese held islands. USN command, and the President, would probably recognize this was suicidal, but could they stand up to US civilian demands to "save our boys". It was easy to say "no" when the battleships sank at Pearl, but what if the fleet was intact? I think it was October 20 of 21 that Drac did a piece on USN Tactics 39-45, and I wondered at that time if USN policy was to write off the Philippine garrison if it was attacked. To answer your question, if the US was goaded into trying to relieve the Philippines, I envision the fleet being picked apart by Japanese subs, until it is weakened enough for a major strike by IJN carrier air, with the IJN battleships mopping up the remains. An even better scenario, from the Japanese perspective, is to not attack the US at all. Bypass the Philippines and only attack British and Dutch possessions. The Germans had been beating on the UK and Netherlands for 2 years, without provoking the US enough to bring the US into the war. Why not let that sleeping dog lie in the Pacific too?
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