Comments by "Steve Valley" (@stevevalley7835) on "U-534 - July Restoration Update and Artifact Tour" video.

  1.  @bryant7201  wrt the "how do they meet" question. My nightmare scenario is the Japanese hit the Philippines and start closing the noose on the US garrison. Public pressure to "save our boys" with a naval relief effort would have been gigantic. Of course, any movement in force would pass through island groups that Japan had held since the end of WWI, affording plenty of opportunity to chip away at the US force before it is within striking range of the Philippines. A piece Drac did on US strategy from 39 on left me with the impression the strategic thinkers were writing off the Philippine garrison, but. with an intact fleet, in this scenario, would the American people accept the garrison being written off?
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  2.  @bryant7201  I am assuming everything proceeds on the historical timeline, except the Pearl Harbor op does not happen. Japan attacked the Philippines on December 8, ie the same day as Pearl. The USN can sit tight in it's fortified harbors, and let the Philippine garrison be starved/slaughtered, or it can act. In my scenario, the American people and Congress force an expedition to "save our boys" in the Philippines, in effect forcing the USN into the response that fits the IJN doctrine. Keep in mind that the League of Nations handed the former German colonies north of the equator to Japan after WWI: that means all of the Marianas, except Guam, all of the Carolines, Palau, and all of the Marshalls. That is about 3,000 miles, between Wake and the Philippines peppered with Japanese held islands supporting flying boat and sub patrols, to keep IJN advised of the USN's position so that a trap can be laid. And the IJN will be closer to repair bases than the USN. It's only 1544 miles from Manila to Hiroshima, but 5445 from Manila to Pearl Harbor. I wouldn't bet on there being any functional repair facilities still intact at Subic when the USN showed up. So, the USN is cut up by Japanese subs and the occasional carrier strike on the way to the Philippines, then runs into Japanese land based air in the Philippines, then another gauntlet of subs on the way back to Pearl. I would almost want the IJN carriers to stay out of the way, hang back in the South China Sea, then add their air wing to the land based air to intercept the USN when it arrives. Chop up the US carriers in the "decisive battle" then pick off the battleships and the other major units as they limp back to Pearl.
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