Comments by "Steve Valley" (@stevevalley7835) on "The Drydock - Episode 283 (Part 1)" video.
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wrt Japan signing Second London. First change is the gun size escalator would not be triggered, as the trigger was Japan not signing the treaty. Second change, if Japan built Yamato as anything remotely treaty complaint, 35-40,000 tons, western intelligence would never have caught on. Reportedly, it was the amount of material being ordered for Yamato that indicated it was well over treaty limits. The fact that Japan was building battleships in late 37 would not ring alarms, as the Kongos would start to age out in 40. If the displacement escalator is not triggered, the Iowas and Lions are never conceived. There was not much of Japan's 81,000 ton carrier allotment left after Kaga, given that Hōshō and Ryūjō were both under 10,000 tons. They probably could have built Sōryū, but there would not be enough tonnage left to build any of the other pre-war carriers, so the 23,000 ton limit does not come into play, as long as Japan holds to the treaty.
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