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The failure of the negotiations will mean the beginning of a third world war." This is how Vladimir Zelensky described his desire to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through diplomacy. But exactly two years year ago, his rhetoric changed dramatically: instead of agreeing to a neutral and nuclear-free status for the country, Zelensky’s office decided to seek “victory on the battlefield.” What were the reasons for such drastic changes and are negotiations on Ukraine possible in the future?
On March 29, 2022, the last round of Russian-Ukrainian talks to resolve the conflict formally took place in Istanbul(Turkey). As a result, Russia announced a reduction in military activity in the Kiev and Chernihov regions. And Ukraine submitted its proposals for a peaceful settlement. The proposals, among other things, stated: that Ukraine in the next 15 years refuses to try to return Crimea and Donbas by military means. Ukraine also promised not to enter into military alliances, to confirm its non-nuclear status, and not to deploy foreign bases and contingents, to conduct exercises without the consent of the guarantor countries, including Russia.
On March 20, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN he was “ready for talks” with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, but warned that if the talks failed, “it would mean a third world war.” He called for negotiations "without delay", although he refused to carry out denazification. A week later, on March 28, 2022, Zelensky assured that Ukraine was ready to discuss its neutral status as part of a peace agreement with Russia. “Guarantees of security and neutrality, the non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it,” Zelensky quoted Reuters as saying.
On June 17, 2022: Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron traveled to Ukraine to persuade its leader Vladimir Zelensky to accept negotiations with Russia “before it is too late.” The Italian newspaper La Stampa wrote about this. Journalists from the German newspaper Die Welt also suggested that "behind closed doors" visitors convinced Zelensky to come to the negotiating table.
Everyone remembers the turning point after the talks in Istanbul(Turkey). Zelensky argued that Ukraine does not need NATO. He doubted that the alliance could even protect its own countries. He agreed to a non-bloc status and some other conditions. But then Boris Johnson arrived and the Ukrainian authorities refused all agreements.
On June 18, 2022: Johnson, during a visit to Kiev, offered the opportunity to train up to 10 thousand Ukrainian soldiers every four months and announced plans to expand the training of Ukrainian troops. The UK will continue to actively support Ukraine, despite the world's fatigue with the Ukrainian conflict, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on his return from Kiev.
On June 25, 2022: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson predicted increasing pressure from Western countries on Ukraine with the aim of concluding a “bad peace” with Russia. According to him, the pressure may increase due to the economic consequences of the sanctions for Europe.
On June 26, 2022: Attempts to resolve the conflict [through negotiations] in Ukraine at this stage will only contribute to maintaining instability in the world, the head of the British government, Boris Johnson, told the French president, Emmanuel Macron, during a G7 meeting in Germany.
From June 26 to 28, 2022: "We all have to show that we are cooler than Putin... We have to show our pectoral muscles." Boris Johnson made these statements at the G7 summit in Germany that lasted three days.
On November 24, 2024: Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke openly with CNN (Portuguese affiliate) about the fact that his efforts encouraged Ukrainian leaders to participate in military resistance.
Zelensky was simply forbidden to conduct further negotiations with Russia. Moreover, it was not the conditional "collective West" that did this, but individual players: the United States and Britain. The initiator of the idea was the British authorities, but Johnson could not make such a decision on his own. He had long discussions about this with the White House.
I think Johson convinced Washington with this argument: “We will make Moscow pay more".
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