Hearted Youtube comments on Anders Puck Nielsen (@anderspuck) channel.
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If Russia invades a piece of Finland, then Finland will go to war for it. We won't wait the Americans to come here and then go to war. And if Finland is at war, then article 5 will HAVE to be used, otherwise it's completely useless. And I have no trust issues, that at least Norway, who also has a border with Russia, and Sweden, who also has areas in the high north, would assist Finland, and I'm sure Poland would also contribute, alongside the Netherlands, and the UK. Maybe even Estonia and the Baltics would directly aid the war effort with troops, even when they themselves would be at real danger at that moment. Who knows what the US would do under Trump, but Finland also has bilateral agreements with countries, one of them being the US.
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Few other issues which makes sea drones hard to target.
1. The curvature of the Earth. If your radar is 5m off the water, at 10km, 0.3m (over a foot) is obscured. If the drone is 1m high and you have 0.5m waves (pretty calm), the most you can see is 20cm of the craft.
2. Speed. A typical speed boat running 45 knots is closing at about 1 km ever 40 seconds. Even if you can "see" it at 2.5km, you could have less than two minutes for someone to scan a five or six square kms of ocean.
3. Vision. Darkness, fog, rain, sun in your eyes, etc. can all make it all but impossible to see those distances. Further, if you are in harbour and anchored you probably have coastline, rocks, islands, other ships, etc.
4. Other attacks/distractions. Air attacks, air drones nearby, etc. can easily get your attention. Naval drones can use smoke screens, flares, lights, radar reflecting panels, chaff dispensers, etc. to draw attention. A drone 5km out with a blinking light and aluminum panels is going to draw attention.
5. They are almost impossible to target. They are too small and moving too fast for missiles or large gun systems to target with any radar-based system. Something like a 50mm gun would need a thermal or night vision site and they are hard pressed to hit things the size of people moving quickly with single shot weapons and they pretty much need direct hits. A raid firing 30mm system might, but most of these are radar guided for use against aircraft. When aimed at something 3km away on the horizon, they can't easily spray and area. Most visually aimed heavy and machine guns typically don't have thermal sights, can't easily be aligned to radar or thermal directions (i.e. the gunner needs to visually see the target even if the ship's radar or thermals could see it), and realistic ranges are likely in the sub 1km range. (i.e. you have less than 45 seconds).
etc.
This said, there are things other navies can do which help -- staying out at sea, moving, using thermal imaging systems, smoke screens, patrol boats further out, nets and sea fencing around ports, or specific ships, proximity detonating mines/buoys around ships, laser grid detection, radar on smaller patrol ships, acoustic sensors, GPS/data sharing (so you know where your own ships are), etc.
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It is the main thing I don't understand with the Kharkiv and talk of maybe another Sumy attack, Ukraine have large forces tied up on borders where they were not able to be used efficiently.
I keep hearing that Russia has a manpower advantage along the active frontline because it has 4-500k against Ukraine's 3-400k, but that Russia has just around 500k+ in total for the war and Ukraine has 900k active soldiers.
Why allow Ukraine to use its larger force and on defensive actions as well.
I could maybe see an argument for Russia thinking it has a large enough material advantage to believe spreading out would force Ukraine to prioritise supplying some fronts over others, but even if that ended up working the result of that would be a siege of large cities that Russia just does not have the manpower to encircle or fight trough.
Extension of the frontline just isn't something Russia can get a long term advantage off, it allows Ukraine to utilize more men that were tied up and ineffective for the war effort.
Personally I don't see Russia as having a chance to win the war as I hold the 2 key beliefs that Ukraine will never give up and the West will never stop supplying Ukraine, the west will in my opinion just keep increasing capacity and eventually go far beyond what Russia has the capacity for.
But with that note out of the way, if I were Russia and I absolutely wanted to keep going and trying for victory this Kharkiv attack just does not make any sense with the resources dedicated for it.
It has to be just a propaganda move, throwing away resources and putting Russia in an even worse position just to show that it is still capable of taking territory.
Whether to show Ukraine/The West, internal population or both how Russia is still "winning", some commander wanted to show off how good he was or to show that it is taking the incursions into Belgorod seriously idk, but it definitely is not because it is a viable offensive.
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