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  24. For me the turning point was when the UK refused to surrender. With Britain still in the war it would not end its oil blockade of Germany. Germany could not win from this point. This not mean that the UK could win but it meant that the Germans could not remove Britain from the war. Britain was playing the game that every operation was designed to waste German Oil. Seemingly pointless operations in Norway and Greece when viewed through this lens forced the Germans not only to deploy its troops to areas but also its fleet. The war was an economic one between the UK and Germany and every German operation versus the UK had to be decisive whereas the UK could lose to the Germans but push the Needle ever more in its favour. This was the British way of war and it was very good at it. It used similar tactics verses Germany in the first world war to devastating effects. It used it against the French multiple times over a 200-year period and it would force the smaller nations of Europe to follow its Pax Britannica due its naval dominance. Through the use of positioning Britain could dictate any wars outcome by blocking trade of one side or another. So, what does this have to do with the war in 1939-1945. The Germans like most European states relied on imported oil. For the Germans this could come from two places. One Russia or two the rest of the world. By removing the rest of the world from the axis the British forced the Germans to use Soviet oil. Stalin however was not going to supply one of his rivals with oil. Remember the Soviets believed that war with Germany was investable as soon as it had removed the western allies, it just believed that Hitler would wait to defeat Britain before attacking. Hitler had no choice but to invade the Soviet Union in 41 because of the oil situation. He could have made savings by docking his entire sub fleet but then he would have been letting the UK build up in peace. Same story for grounding the Luftwaffe. Hitler had been forced into a corner by the British one that they knew he could not escape from. Even if Hitler had taken the oil fields in the Caucuses the British would have focused it for their bombing campaign. (There were plans to bomb it anyway). Just to drain German oil. Therefore, every British victory in Africa was decisive and every German victory was not. Unless Germany could take the Suez and push beyond the British could just come back year on year and counter attack with new tanks and new men. Hitler was no fool he knew that he could not invade Britain. The royal Navy was just too powerful, the RAF could replace losses far quicker than he could. Plus, his mechanised troops would be bottlenecked by the amphibious landings. It is pure folly to believe that sealion was a valid plan. Look at the difficulty the allies had with conducting Overlord and they had years to plan and prepare. Some simulations conducted over the years would have given the Germans 3 days of clear channel before the Royal Navy counter attacked and without the battleships to challenge them the Germans who landed would have been surrounded and cut to pieces. So, what does this leave us it leaves Germany with an enemy it can’t defeat who after 18 June 1940 would not surrender throttling the Germans every day of the war. The invasion of Russia may have hastened the wars end for Germany, but it was not the turning point. Germany had already lost the war it was just a matter of who won it and when they finally beat Germany.
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