Hearted Youtube comments on Farzad (@FarzadMediaINC) channel.
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I'm not an investor and I don't have any Tesla stock, but I've bought 3 Teslas since 2019 (current one is a 2023 Model Y LR Austin-built) and I love driving and owning them. They have some minor quirks, but the overall ownership experience has been stellar, far surpassing anything I've owned before (I'm 63 and have bought dozens of new cars, muscle cars, and pickup trucks in my lifetime). The reason I admire Tesla is because they proved all the EV naysayers wrong. Thanks to Tesla, we know now that EVs have superior performance, are fun to drive, and are super convenient since they are typically charged at home, don't need oil changes, tune ups, and all the other headaches that come with an ICE car. Whenever I get stuck behind an old smoke-belching ICE car and feel my nose, throat, and lungs burn, it reminds me of how much better the world would be if so many more people drove an EV. On top of that, just imagine our country no longer being dependent on the world oil supply, oil price fluctuations, refinery shutdowns. Imagine America no longer having to spend huge sums of blood and treasure defending oil exporting countries. On every single level, EVs are the future and I thank Tesla and Elon Musk for showing it can be done and how to do it. Kudos to Tesla.
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🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:00 📌 Introduction of Vivek Ramaswamy as a successful American business leader, founder of Strive, and his background in biotech.
01:23 📌 Vivek's concern about the American Dream not existing for his sons' generation and his mission to restore purpose, meaning, and identity.
02:46 📌 Discussion about the hunger for purpose and meaning in the Millennial generation, the quest for national identity, and the importance of answering the question, "What does it mean to be an American?"
05:02 📌 Parallels between Elon Musk's focus on space exploration and Vivek's focus on reviving individual self-worth, family values, and national identity as part of the American experience.
09:16 📌 Critique of the loss of national pride and identity in the United States, emphasizing the need to celebrate and appreciate American values.
13:01 📌 Recognition of the rise of China's economy and the importance of maintaining the United States as a meritocracy, fostering economic growth and attracting skilled individuals.
16:20 📌 Advocacy for merit-based immigration to the United States, ensuring that skilled individuals can join and contribute positively to the nation.
18:12 📌 Viewing the current challenges in the US as part of its developmental process, likening it to adolescence, with optimism that the nation will emerge stronger.
18:41 🏔️ Attitude towards growth: Both Elon and Vivek believe that society is not in decline but on an ascent, with endless potential for progress.
19:10 🧠 Education reform: Vivek suggests revoking funding from schools that teach misleading ideologies, promoting awareness among donors, and ensuring schools teach accurate information.
19:53 💼 Governance issues: Half of the stock market follows passive or index funds, and voting decisions are often outsourced to a few organizations, leading to potential bias in voting decisions.
21:17 🏦 Financial influence on decision-making: Some investment firms may use their influence to promote social agendas through shareholder voting, deviating from maximizing shareholder value.
23:38 📈 ESG debate: Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) initiatives can be manipulated for political or social goals, potentially harming shareholder interests.
26:08 💡 American ideals and truth: Vivek emphasizes the importance of truth and transparency, especially in government and financial matters, for a more united and informed society.
28:12 🌎 Intervention and foreign aid: There's a discussion about the potential unintended consequences of military intervention and foreign aid, particularly in conflict zones like Ukraine.
32:08 🚀 Private enterprise vs. government: Elon and Vivek discuss the benefits of free enterprise, competition, and the limitations of government's role in various aspects of society.
35:05 🤖 Peace proposal and public opinion: Vivek highlights a past peace proposal for Ukraine, suggesting that public opinion often favors interventionist approaches over peaceful alternatives.
37:50 🌍 Understanding Ukraine: Elon Musk discusses his deep study of the region's history to comprehend the complex dynamics between Ukraine and Russia.
38:33 🤝 Forgiveness and Realism: Musk emphasizes the need for forgiveness and realism in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, highlighting that the cycle of revenge is counterproductive.
39:43 🛢️ Economic Relations: Ramaswamy suggests restoring economic relations between Western Europe and Russia can promote stability and discourage conflict escalation.
40:40 🏞️ Local Support Matters: Musk notes that Russia's ability to advance is limited by the level of local support, citing examples of Crimea and Donbass where local support played a significant role.
41:19 🕊️ Pursuit of Peace: Both speakers advocate for a realistic peace negotiation, highlighting that the continuation of conflict leads to unnecessary loss of life and instability.
43:13 🌐 Geopolitical Strategy: Musk and Ramaswamy agree that NATO expansion and political motivations are key factors influencing the Ukraine situation, stressing the need for neutrality and self-determination.
44:35 ⚖️ Media Gaslighting: Ramaswamy criticizes the media's downplaying of NATO's role in the conflict and emphasizes the necessity to address this issue for a meaningful solution.
46:13 🌟 Beyond Partisan Divides: Musk discusses the potential for a productive alliance between people from different parts of the political spectrum, highlighting the complexity of geopolitical issues.
48:48 🌍 Cultural Closing of Ranks: Ramaswamy and Musk stress the importance of open debate on complex issues like civil rights, highlighting the dangers of cultural censorship.
52:05 💡 Executive Order Reevaluation: Ramaswamy and Musk discuss reevaluating executive orders like 11246 to promote colorblind meritocracy and address affirmative action.
55:34 🗳️ Principle Over Politics: Musk asserts his commitment to advocating for truth and principle, even if it means taking on difficult political battles, to restore fairness and equity.
56:57 🇺🇸 The interpretation of civil rights laws has led to unintended consequences in creating hostile work environments based on differing opinions, which may not have been the original intent of the Civil Rights Act.
57:24 📜 The historical intent of the Civil Rights Act included concerns about disparate impact, but the modern application has deviated from this intent, leading to issues like affirmative action and diversity quotas.
58:22 ⚖️ Recent Supreme Court rulings suggest a shift towards a more balanced approach to interpreting civil rights laws and addressing historical intent.
59:17 🎙️ The discussion turns to etymology, with a connection made between "Merit" and "America" reflecting hard work and a colorblind meritocracy.
01:00:40 🌐 A proposal to restructure the FBI is discussed, advocating for redirecting its functions to existing agencies like the U.S. Marshals, DEA, and other specialized bodies, thereby reducing redundancy and corruption.
01:05:03 🛡️ A focus on restoring purpose to the U.S. military is emphasized, prioritizing protecting American lives and deterring and winning wars, with a plan to replace managerial figures in the Pentagon.
01:08:45 🌍 The conversation highlights the need to shift away from regime change and interventionist policies in foreign relations, fostering a clear focus on protecting national interests while respecting others' sovereignty.
01:14:08 🔍 The discussion touches on the deputization of private companies by the government to censor speech indirectly, prompting a call for transparency through the release of files detailing government interactions with these companies.
01:15:04 🗽 The First Amendment's primary purpose is to protect the right to criticize government policies, and recent cases show the government's attempts to suppress such criticism.
01:15:32 💼 Pervasive influence: Examples of government pressuring private sector (e.g., social media, banks) to achieve policy goals the government couldn't achieve directly.
01:16:42 🔒 State action doctrine: If the government uses private entities as puppets to carry out its agenda, those actions should be subject to transparency and public scrutiny.
01:17:11 🌞 Transparency for accountability: Calls for documenting instances where government employees pressure private actors to achieve government goals.
01:17:39 📜 Rebuilding public trust: Restoring honesty and truthfulness as a key principle, sharing accurate information even when it's uncomfortable, to regain trust in institutions.
01:18:37 💬 China-U.S. relations: Advocates for fair rules and conditions for American businesses operating in China, emphasizing non-coercion, equal standards, and transparency.
01:20:03 🌏 Trade relationships: Proposes re-entry into Pacific trade relationships with fairer terms, balancing benefits to both corporations and local populations.
01:22:09 💰 Election funding: Addresses the influence of money in politics, acknowledges need for funding but emphasizes maintaining integrity and not compromising principles.
01:24:29 💸 Grassroots campaign: Describes campaign's reliance on small-dollar donations, emphasizes transparency and integrity in fundraising.
01:28:44 🤝 Genuine dialogue: Promotes open, honest, and conviction-driven conversations as a way to connect with people and break away from traditional political tropes.
Made with HARPA AI
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My wife and I bought a PAIR of Mach Es in 2021. We will never go back to gasoline. No gas stations, no oil changes, no water pump, fuel pump, transmission, exhaust, radiator, fuel injectors, alternator , belts......
In 48,000 miles, we've saved $1,390.00 on oil changes alone. We save at LEAST $0.10 per mile over gasoline saving another $4,800 on fuel. Best thing is, 92% of our charging is at night in the garage.
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In a nutshell, entrenched, previously successful companies who have not been forced to make signficant changes in decades HATE change. ALL of them had access to the same incentives Tesla did over the last 2 decades, but they mostly ignored the incentives and just kept doing the fossil-fuel-shuffle, waiting for their gold watches and retirements. Now, they have no choice but to change, and they suck at moving quickly, do not have the engineering talent, and basically, will fail to various degrees, leading to bankruptcies/bailouts. The unions also didn't do squat for 2 decades to prepare for the EV transition. Now they are whining about it. OK, that was several nutshells...
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Innovator's Dilemma is a great book, and I recommend it to anyone trying to understand the EV transition. Christensen's point (drawn from watching paradigm transitions in computer storage) is that it's precisely the strengths of market leaders that render them unable to follow during a technology transition. They are late to recognize the need to change, and the fact that new tech offers low profitability in early years means the market leaders won't invest in it till too late, by which time they can't catch up. Compounding this is the fact that the incumbent companies are structured around the old tech, and transitioning will require they cannibalize much of their core assets, which is politically impossible for them to do.
One thing I've been saying is that the next mass market ICE OEM that transitions successfully to a profitable EV OEM will be the first, because none have managed it yet. It's not clear that it's even a thing that can be done. Tesla never had an ICE business, and Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda et al are just starting to do EVs, probably at a loss for the time being.
One other point I'd throw in here is that Ford and GM won't just be competing against Tesla and other incumbent OEMs. In the next five years I expect a massive invasion of Chinese EVs made by giant Chinese manufacturers that most Americans have never heard of. These new EVs will be cheaper, but high quality products, and they may devastate the industry the same way the Japanese imports of the 70s devastated the US domestic OEMs.
Anyway, great video, can't wait to see what else you come up with.
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Another massive issue is that legacy auto gives up over 10%, maybe 20% of REVENUE to marketing, dealer network and advertising. Even if they could replicate the Tesla cars, factories, superchargers, FSD, get th batteries, etc - everything; Tesla would still crush them just by not having dealers. They can NOT survive. Its just a question of how soon Tesla can ramp up production of TX with pickup and cybertruck based sport ute. Same thing for pacar, volvo trucks, etc. when the semi hits in volume, they are over.
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It's very important to understand a few things.
1. The bot won't just simply replace humans one to one. Cars didn't just replace horses, the car market quickly became orders of magnitude bigger than the horse market ever was. The drastically smaller cost, and the practically infinite supply, will make possible to do things that are just way too expensive today. Especially if we don't limit robots to human form. The possibilities are insane. This will be the biggest disruption in history (until AGI). Climate change is gone, pollution is gone, poverty is gone, space colonization becomes trivial, and so on.
2. Bots can make bots. They can build the factories, mine the raw materials and work on the lines. We could easily have more robots than humans. Orders of magnitude more.
3. Bots will become more intelligent exponentially. Their processing power grows with Moore's law, and their software becomes better as more experience they get, which is proportional to the number of bots (just like FSD). Well it's actually faster than exponential. There's a reason it's called technological singularity.
4. This will disrupt capitalism itself. We'll become a true post-scarcity civilization (we are almost there anyway), so money kind of loses it's importance.
5. From a technological standpoint this will happen. Tesla has all the necessary pieces to do it in a few years. But politics can screw it up easily. I'm not worried as long as Elon decides what happens. But if he loses control, things can get very ugly very fast. With the need for labor eliminated, the ruling class will have no incentive to keep the masses happy, or alive, and they'll have a robot army that will carry out any order without hesitation. Similar things happened already in 3rd world dictatorships, where only a small percentage of the population is needed to extract valuable natural resources (oil, gold, diamond, etc.). In this case the incentive is to get rid of the excess population in any way necessary, to reduce the danger of an uprising. Robots and AGI can only have extreme outcomes, extremely good or extremely bad, there's no middle ground.
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Farzad, love your work, a long time subscriber here with almost 2 million miles OTR on semitrucks. Love TSLA and a stockholder.
Love the idea of a Tesla semi, and I believe they will be the future. As of right now, I can see their application on local/regional runs, where most of them are up to 500 miles/day. But at the end of the day, only the large fleets can accommodate parking with chargers, so while the driver rests for 10 hours, or goes home from his terminal, the regular driver or owner operator can not find a suitable place to charge. Also, by DOT requirements, after a max 14 hours of work (wich includes a maximum of 11 hour of driving), every driver needs to take a mandatory minimum 10 hour brake. Once plugged in, that truck will block that charger for 10 hours, nowadays the DOT is monitoring and forcing carriers to monitor by electronic logging devices, any spin of the wheel and punish the drivers and independent contractors. So let's say you plugged in your truck to charge, while finishing your work day, taking your 10 hour brake, but someone has to come back in 3-4 hours to unplug it, and clear the charging spot to avoid additional charges by blocking the charger. Now that driver, has to restart that 10 hour brake, because he had to move the truck into a parking spot a few dozen feet away.
Another issue is charging locations (for now). In the trucking industry, the most imperative problem, is parking. Actually I read an article a few years ago, mentioning the fact, if all the trucks in the US would stop, there wouldn't be enough suitable parking for all the semis at one time. Most of the truckstops are designed for back to back parking, installing so many chargers would take too much room. My belief is Elon is going to help with that, and a lot of investment in land/realestate is required to create the future of truckstops. Now, let's keep in mind, trucking industry has a close to 90% turnover rate. 9 out of 10 new drivers, quit within the first year. A lot newbies out there, that shouldn't be driving a truck, due to lack of experience. I do see them messing up big time in truckstups and fuel lanes, being reckless; those electric chargers would have to be protected heavily from the accidents, given the high voltage. Nowadays by example, diesel fuel lanes are protected by large concrete cylinders, about 5 feet tall fith a diameter of about 4 feet, painted in yellow, weighing tons, and yet, now and then I see one dragged and rolled by a rookie driver.
As far as FSD, no matter how much I love the idea of it, fir right now us a bit difficult, there is a lot if change that needs to happen in the legislation for this to come to fruition. Operating a truck also requires comunicating with weight stations, truck rules are sometimes different and change often even as we are driving down the road. One example would be, getting into a work zone, all of a sudden, you might have to change lanes based on the stretch of the work area, due to signs as "trucks must/use left lane"; that is usually done so the heavy vehicles don't "sink in*" the shoulder, that is now used as the right lane, and is not designed for heavy traffic use.
More challenges that require an experienced operator also arise from the need to make sure the vehicle is compliant with the local, state, and federal regulations; the weight of the load must be adjusted, by going to a weight scale, and if needed, moving the tandems if the trailer, or sometimes even the fifth wheel to spread the weight on axles in order to be legal. No one wants to risk a fine, since many scales have "weigh in motion" sensors, built into the road.
Now to the difficult part; unfortunately the trucking industry faces delays at customers, shippers and receivers; there is no guarantee when you arrive at your location, even with an appointment set, that you will be leaving that place when expected. Many drivers have to wait hours, if not days in one location to get loaded or unloaded. Where to charge? Majority of the time (actually most of the time) truckers run their engines for heat, AC (those cabs overheat in a sunny day like an oven), invertor power for their TV's or microwave oven, so there is a lot of electricity being used.
I have no doubt everything will be alright, but it will take a bit of time.
But for the beginning, I definitely applaud the launch of the 500 miles semi, it will eliminate a lot of pollution from the cities.
When it comes to over the road, truckers would all love it to have it a two seater in the front. Majority are traveling with a companion, being a spouse or child, or a pet, every one wants to have a passenger seat. Also, we need to lean over the window to communicate with a toll or scale operator, or stick our head out to back up into a tight spot. I truly think it's a must, somehow (I an aware, it would affect the aerodynamics of the bobtail).
TSLA to the moon !
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There was a brief golden nugget in the presentation that I don't believe anyone has totally interpreted. It was a rather compressed package of information in the video of the bot. Yes, it showed improved articulation, dexterity and more than one newer version of the bot. But I believe the real message in the video was the machine that builds the machine. Two bots involved in attaching an arm to a third bot. The manufacturing plant is the machine, but the bots are going to be an integral part of that machine. I don't think Tesla will have to "fire" a ton of people, but I do think the humanoid bots will comprise about 20% or more of the human(oid) work force in the next 3 years. That could then mean 20% or so of the workforce will be bipedal bots and 80% will be humans. Consider the differential in the cost of the bot and operation of a bot vs. the human "loaded" salary. This means the bot will pay for itself, it's iterations for a couple years, and learning capabilities while it's employed in house. This means when the bot is released for sale or lease to business or public, it will already be a much more mature product with a high level of learning capabilities and usefulness at a vary low cost. The real meaning behind the bot video was more so that of the bots attaching the arm onto a third bot and what that implies.
I think the whole presentation was not actually interpreted well as a whole, only some parts of it. Maybe it is just me, but I was in total awe of the implications. I think it was lost on most analysts and institutional investors and even a good part of it on retail investors.
I think another key point is that most people are simply looking at Tesla like it is just an isolated company. What they are not looking at is the synergies that are yet to be born from Tesla, Space X, The Boring Co., Neural Link, Twitter, potentially a new "Open AI" led by Elon. There are already some connected synergies, but many more to come. Think about it. The actual scale of companies is far greater than just Tesla and one or the other.
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Good to point out that TSLA going up —while all the rest are going down—is a scary thing.
Exciting for investors but scary at the same time.
But their time has come and now their time is leaving, no one to blame but themselves.
After all, they haven’t been the nicest players all this time, have they?
Dealerships taking their big cut, the pain to us consumers…
Building big cars and trucks and pushing, pushing, always pushing for bigger profits.
The truck that made Ford the leading example…
We the people have been paying and paying for as long as I’ve been alive, certainly since I’ve been buying cars.
All of us paid.
And, even worse in this horrible scheme, they have ignored the anti-green aspect of their product, lobbying to get all of us to ignore the devastation done to the air, …
Well. So now they will certainly suffer the consequences, hey?
It will be ugly. They are awfully big. This while the broader economy is strained as well. I have so little calm with the nation debt…scariness compounds, right?
So there is a painful side to all this, the oncoming transition. It comes like a giant wave, stories tall.
Bye bye oil, hello electricity. I’m glad to see the bullies go, happy to see the more humanitarian mindset take their place. But there will be growing pains, as it would appear.
Out with the old. In the new. The future comes near.
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Farzad, thanks for sharing this man! I feel like you're so genuine and I can relate to your story. In June 2020, I got vestibular neuritis (vertigo) and in the worst of my symptoms, I had severe heart palpitations that I'd hear in my head & FEEL throughout my entire body so hard. It was nearly impossible to sleep. I had other insane symptoms, like constant nausea, dizziness, spacey feelings, spinning, etc. It gave me extreme anxiety and I had to start taking SSRIs, but luckily those helped somewhat. Anyways, appreciate you brother -- glad you're doing better!
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I had a Prius for the last 15 years and loved it. Had been thinking about going to EV, but had a lot of the concerns mentioned here (range anxiety, concerns about fire hazards, concerns about fragility of electric grid especially during hurricanes, etc...). I had put money down on a new Prius Prime, but they were trying to mark it up $5K and were estimating a 6-8 month wait for delivery, so decided to go look at Tesla and ultimately ended up buying a Model 3 performance for less than what I would have paid for the Prius Prime. Now that I have an EV, I recognize that many of my concerns were overblown and can't imagine going back now. Love not having to go to gas stations or get oil changes. The charging takes less time and is less hassle than I expected - until someone fixes my short-range bladder, the range of the current EVs is fine because I have to stop more frequently than need to charge anyway.... :P Although it's dissappointing that there are so many misconceptions about EVs, I do think that the increase in hybrid sales is good, because I feel like hybrids are basically a gateway to EVs. As the charging network improves and charging times improve, I think range anxiety will lessen. I do think EVs are less appealing if you live in an apartment though. It will be interesting to see how the emergence of robotaxis changes the equation as well....
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I'm glad "the algorithm" recommended your first video and I subscribed immediately. I have a great deal of interest in understanding to what degree Tesla is driven by "standard business objectives ($$$ + mkt domination)" versus their mission to "accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy".
As a side note, I believe long term, these can (and should) be one in the same, but most businesses get caught up in the short term need to satisfy shareholders. And the largest companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc) seemed to have essentially given up on most of their early philanthropic mission in lieu of $$$, power, and domination. This leaves me wondering if Tesla will follow this course.
Another side note, hearing from the team leads at the end of the Battery Day presentation, I was so impressed with their commitment to Tesla's mission that I bought more TSLA.
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I know their will be union supporters who will disagree with my opinion, but it is what it is! I believe unions have a place where workers are truly mistreated (I mean more than typical self victimization). However, in today’s world, where there is a labor shortage, companies can’t survive if they don’t reasonably treat their workforce. Workers would simply move to greener pastures. I agree that a union at Tesla would be a terrible idea! I base these feelings on my own experience working for a union in the early 1970’s. I come from an immigrant family and, as such, was raised with a keen work ethic which was not appreciated by the union I belonged to. I found the union was more interested in feather bedding than encouraging innovation and profitability for the company. This was counter to my upbringing and resulted in the union calling me out on the carpet on numerous occasions. The final straw was when the union workers were encouraged to go out on strike over a minor pay disagreement. We had to go out on strike for over a month before the union negotiated a minimal pay increase. However, it was so small, that the workers wouldn’t recoup lost wages for years. What sense did that make! I left soon after that and swore I would never work for a union again and never looked back. I never did and retired (on my own terms) from a very large, vibrant, non-union enterprise after having a rewarding and productive 43 year career. I wish I had the opportunity to work for Tesla. It sounds like the exact environment I would have thrived in.
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In this very broad discussion around conspiracy theories, two points stand out to me, and they both revolve around moral issues.
In the government’s apparent war on Musk, I think the main issue has been Biden’s steadfast determination to back unionized labor. He is so strong on this issue that he has been blinded to the possibility of any other employee relationship to the employer must be evil. Musk has built all his companies where the employees have in the main part felt sufficiently well treated, respected, well treated and rewarded, that they have not felt a need to unionize. And by law, they could have unionised at any point if they felt a need or necessity. This is an anathema to Biden’s principles that he has not been able to wrap his head around. So in his simple logic, the reasoning goes like this, from fact to conclusion:
Facts (real or perceived) => Conclusion, Action
#1. Tesla & other Musk companies have no union; all capitalists inherently evil & self-serving => Musk bad (by definition because he doesn’t correspond to Biden’s world view) => Musk must NOT be supported and acknowledged, or as little as legally possible.
This is basic logic that must not be contradicted and any resulting financial costs to the government are not be considered in this logic.
#2. Re the free speech arguments revolving around the Conservative values being proposed in the presidential election race: The Conservative view points would be considered much more seriously by we liberals if the conservative movement was not being let by such an obviously morally unstable and corrupt leader, and if Conservative talking points were not being espoused by an equally morally corrupt national news organisation (Fox News).
Morality does matter. So does an open thought and a willingness to have logical thought be influenced by observed facts.
Lewis
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22:07 - I have done that experiment, many times over, with my M Y FSD Supervised as an Uber driver. The results are that most people don’t even realize I am not driving. When you ask them they are typically positive on the subject, interested, excited, amazed. Some are hesitant (typically older). I have had one bad reaction, but that person was an irrational wacko anyhow and he was giving everyone one star ratings due to personal problems that had absolutely nothing to do with anyone but him. I did Uber for seven months or so, about 100 trips per month, and it was a ton of fun. The pay is too low to support a family, so I had to stop and go back to my other job, but it’s a fun less than part time gig.
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By the time we make it to mars in significant numbers, AI and robotics will do the hard labor. Elon's (publicly stated***) vision of a human city on Mars largely overlooks the implications of his other developing technologies: robotics, AI, and neuralink. Not to mention that powerful computing and AI will unlock genetic engineering. The genome is just software. We will be able to re-engineer own own physiology to be extremely well adapted to space and other alternative environments. Conventional requirements of living space and related infrastructure simply won't apply.
We also won't be transporting the kinds of materials needed for durable constructions. Those few intrepid explorers and settlers who go to Mars prior to the above advances in AI, robotics, and engineering, will live in some kind of extreme lightweight inflatable sorts of structures. But mostly we will just send robots and refining equipment to build habitats from raw materials on Mars. But again, by ~2050, colonists will most likely undergo major genetic modification to be far better adapted. Requirements will be quite different if when are thus modified, not to mention cybernetically integrated with our AI and robotics.
***It is entirely possible Elon has thought of all this, but it is a bit too much change for most people to wrap their heads around. Or maybe not. He doesn't think of everything, and the far more pressing goal on his mind right now is just bringing down the cost of just getting to space (unit cost of mass to orbit).
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Wonderfull presentetion here Farzard!
This is by far my longest and well thought answer on youtube ever, but I can’t help it not saying a summary of my thoughts:
Having in mind if FSD will become a reality in 1 - 3 years, when at least all US roads can be handled by FSD, when do you think Optimus will be able to be delivered to customers and have such capable operating system that it can be set to do mainstream labor? I am guessing here areound >5 years into the future.
I am thinking that the robot would need more charge brakes because of it’s form factor, it seems compact and would be to heavy to have too many batteries, if no new technolodgy breakthrough until then, so this would mean less work time that you estimat. Just a hunch, can’t calculat it, take it with a grain of salt.
When will they be deployed to customers, they will have a learning curve to do the corect job, as each one really is different, so that would require also some time and some supervision by a person, that persone or persones will only take care of the robots to do the proper stuff or to do it themselfs until the robots learn the job.
Also job is changing all the time, that would mean somehow the robot to adapt to new things or to be thought. This means that people would need to train the neuronent apps that come with this product, maybe this application would be as well at the customer to feed new job activities from inside the company.
Side notes:
-I really think that Tesla will make a special edition of Prime called MarsPrime so that they will be used to start Terraforming/occupy Mars. We will maybe see this 20 years?
About that number 6 that keeps repeating into your calculations, you know what Nikola Tesla said about these key numbers?
“If you only knew the magnificence of the 3, 6, and 9, then you would have a key to the universe.”
Falcon9 is already in the list :)
Really enjoyed your video and idea! Keep up the good work!
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I think your price targets are to linear in the near future and to optimistic after 2030. The market will probably price Tesla with a lot higher multiples in the near term, maybe until around 2025 and then slowly aproach your multiple of 24 (personally I think 25-30) after 2030. If the market does mot tank catastrophically it is my personal opinion, that we will see 1,500 around or after Q4 21 financials and probably 2,000 in 2022. 3,000 in 2023 and 5,000 by 2025. All that mostly based on the car business and the assumption that there is progress on FSD (no, I do not think, that'll be universally functional by then, maybe long haul Robo Semis will) and other software revenue (maybe an App Store or AI services). Having said that a lot can happen in 4 years.
Projecting more than 5 years into the future does not make much sense I think, because even small variable changes will change your result dramatically. I do think though, that Tesla probably will have the potential to get to a 10 Trillion evaluation somewhere around 2030.
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As a new Model S owner (car is new, and I’m a neophyte owner), I’ve found Tesla Service to be extraordinarily responsive, friendly, and easy to work with. I’m accustomed to Lexus service, which is the best, EXCEPT for Tesla! I love scheduling via the app, communicating via the app, and always being given the choice among a loaner, Uber credits, or waiting at the service center.
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I’ve had a few hours to think about this interview now. First, it’s incredible how Alexandra nailed the “blues,” as that is me to the TEE, though I like to run with “yellow” type sometimes. I know this a very simplistic model for understanding people, but as long as you understand the limitations of your model, such models are useful.
I’ve reached the conclusion that Elon needs more advisors who view the world through different lenses and perspectives (perhaps more reds and definitely greens), and it is curious whether he gets advice and compatible with enough people who view the world through different lenses, so that he integrates many perspectives into his decision making.
While I feel that Elon could theoretically always just use first principles to solve everything along the critical paths, such decisions may miss or be blind to important side effects.
We have discussed this before, but for example, automation technologies will automate many jobs, and if his decisions are made without fully considering the variables and outcomes, it will be more and more difficult to tread a line that has the blessing of much of society—no matter how much total good he (we) believes he has done. (It is easier to gain a negative reputation than earn a positive one.)
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My God this is almost exactly what I've gone through the last several years. I was a super fit 24 year old and during a routine doctor's visit my doctor asked me if I had any trouble breathing. I quickly said no but later that night I started contemplating it, focusing on my breathing intently like you did with your heart. I decided I think I did have a trouble breathing, and with my fixation on it I couldn't get it out of my head.
I went to every specialist doctor I could, thinking there was something very wrong with my lungs. I spent months feeling as if I was running a marathon, short of breath CONSTANTLY regardless of what I was doing. I could be sitting on the sofa and felt like I was sprinting. I never saw any psychologist or therapist because I was convinced there was something actually wrong with me. I never even conceived that it could be something as simply as anxiety causing these issues. If I had seen this video back then at the height of my problems, it could have been a life saver.
I slowly got better as I tried everything I could to get my mind off of it. I had to listen to podcasts as I went to sleep every night or else my mind would fixate on my breathing.
Over the course of 3 years I have finally gotten to a place where I don't think about it any longer and I'm no longer suffering like I was. However I went from being a daily gym bro to never working out at all, afraid of not being able to catch my breath.
I have gotten really out of shape since it started but this video, how you talked about hitting your anxiety head on, daring it to hurt you, has really inspired me to get back under the barbell, and not be afraid of those fears coming back. I can't thank you enough for sharing this story. I thought I was alone in my struggles.
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Some thoughts:
1. With lower gravity and wind loads, the domes don't have to be quite as strong as they do on earth. Thus fewer materials and lower cost.
2. The ships themselves can be incorporated into the habitats, further reducing material and transportation costs. Besides the raw materials or adaptable structural components, life support systems could be used to heat, cool, and purify air, recycle water and waste, etc.
3. Need to give some thought to interior structure to maximize the utility of the space for occupants. That will also require materials, although, perhaps, some modular components of Starships could be used.
4. Working with natural structures (caves, water and lava tubes, etc) could maximize the utility of any materials you must transport from earth to Mars.
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As a repeat entrepreneur myself, I understand very well the culture you are describing. However, it blows my mind that Tesla is capable of maintaining that start-up culture (multiple hats, empowering people, creative problem-solving, giving and accepting constructive criticism... and ungodly hours...) with 100'000 employes. From my experience, I would have guessed that such culture would start to disappear when the company gets past a few hundreds employees!
As a Tesla car owner and relatively long--time shareholder, I am most thankful for the incredible work you and your many colleagues performed to make Tesla what it is today. Many many people, including me, are profiting handsomely from it! Kudos for that first video, too. I subscribed so I would get the next ones!
One question though:
While I understand that after-sale service and repairs can suffer with the incredible growth rate Tesla has been through, how come it can still take months to get seemingly germane parts, or get the car fixed after a minor accident? I personally did not encounter such annoying problem (I had zero problem in 2.5 years with my Model 3... let's touch wood...), but some friends of mine did, and their experiences were less than great.
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What will be interesting to see is what happens with those that have 84 months loans and realize they could be 20 or 30k+ underwater if they hold the loan for the term. I think defaults are going to be huge. It may take a couple of years for this to start happening, but I think it's a real possibility. The other thing that I found interesting is that the number of non-Tesla charging stations, at least in my state, are few and far between, and those that are physically installed have questionable uptime and typically have slower charging rates when compared to Tesla's network I know it's affecting sales. One of the marketing techniques BMW was employing, ,to compete with Tesla pricing was to sell single-motor rear-wheel drive EVs. At that point, they were price competitive. To get the same options that are available on a stock Tesla, add another 8-10k to the BMW price. Putting aside the pricing and options, BMW charging network is sketchy at best; it's nonTesla, I'll leave it at that, and I know BMW knows it's a real problem. You might have a superior car, but if it's a known fact that the charging network the manufacturer has aligned with has proven to be problematic, it's going to affect sales.
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I think FUD made it even more difficult than it already was at a time, when Tesla was at a critical point in it's development (I'm talking about the Model 3 ramp in 2017/2018).
In 2021 it's irrelevant and will stay so as long as it does not impair demand below Teslas ability to scale production. I do not think that that will happen if Tesla keeps improving on technology and quality like they did in recent years. By now Teslas are common enough that people do see them and can inspect one closely (which they often do, sometimes it's interesting and funny to watch). Tesla owners loving their cars in the overwhelming majority (statistics as well as personal experience support this) does the rest.
Most people are dumb and do not question information and opinions presented to them enough in general, but they to some extent still value personal experience over what the newspaper says. So with as many Teslas on the road as there are now, there is enough personal experience with them to be had to counteract FUD.
On a side note. I had a friend in the US who was very critical of EVs and Tesla ("It's a fad", "to expensive", "Elon is an odd one", all the usual arguments). When visiting him 4 years ago in the US I arranged for a Model 3 test drive in my vacation, because Model 3 was not yet available in Germany then. (Still amazed how easy that was and how accommodating the Boston service center was. They even planned a 90min country back road drive with the then very new Performance 3, because I wanted to get a good feel of the suspension and how the car handled). My friend accompanied me. Guess what car he bought 2 years later, when his old one had to be replaced...
Long story short. If you get butts in Teslas their next car will likely be a Tesla. That's why I think the importance and positive impact of the Vegas Loop and the Hertz deal are way underestimated by many people. Every one of those cars will sell dozens of Teslas in the short term and hundreds in the long term.
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Thank you for addressing this topic today, I believe your opinion is very important and you are a persuasive personality, not meaning anything negative or derogatory in any way. I am an older guy born in the late 1940s and raised in the '50s and '60s in central Texas amidst many racial biases and hard-nosed opinions. Still to this day I remember the signs in buses and the racial labels over water fountains and thought it quite normal. I attended a technical high school which was heavily mixed, about 45% Mexican, 40% blacks, so I being a white guy was the minority and I could feel it every hour, every class, every day. The Air Force during the Vietnam era helped me in a lot of ways and I have made some lifelong friends, that most of my high school companions would not have accepted. Times are still changing and I am adapting, but for me, it is still an uphill battle sometimes. Thankfully today I have the far-left liberals and the woke generation to keep me busy. I can only hope that I have become a better person than where I started out...
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Good thesis. This is fresher and more interesting than I expected. The Stellantis CEO said there were only be 5 companies that will survive. Which is just like what happened in the 1910s and 20s when the American auto industry consolidated into (primarily) the Big Three. What this video makes me wonder is What was the profitability of all the automakers in the 10s and 20s as this shakeout/consolidation took place? Was the early GM ever in a position where as it grew it lost significant sums of money while Ford was hugely profitable?
Everything we were told to expect, and what seemed obvious in about 2018 is coming to pass, just not in the order we thought. I expected by now that my Model Y would be less than a year away from full FSD, but I didn't expect Tesla to offer to license their system to other companies.
The only thing missing here is batteries, scaling up, current constraints, how fast can raw materials be scaled up. No doubt that's on your ToDo list, and of course you've discussed it. I see a future where there will be more than a few EV makers in competition with Tesla, but those vehicles will have Tesla's charging system, FSD and other software, and maybe Tesla/Panasonic batteries. Tesla will make the most profits, but these older companies will survive and be profitable.
By far the greatest achievement to date is: Tesla has killed the Internal Combustion Engine.
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That's a great take on the industry, Farzad. Naturally, there are many more factors which will come into effect. Charging infrastructure, battery supply chain, battery, electronics and software expertise, AI, robotics and agile manufacturing prowess. The scales will tip in favour of those who can get these things right and expand, and against those who fail to master these areas... These are simply not in the Legacy autos' skillsets (at the moment). They are used to "catalog" shopping. For a huge company, VW is struggling with software. Charging infrastructure needs to be dependable, reliable and ubiquitous (like gas stations). Battery expertise does not happen overnight ( Chevy Bolt problems, even with world renowned manufacturers). Companies have to be able to adapt quickly to changing tech., and yet not make gut-busting mistakes...The future will be interesting, to say the least !
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Six months ago, when TSLA was just $700 I made a spreadsheet model based on factory capacity.
My model predicted:
2021 = 900,000 units (TSLA price target of $1000)
2022 = 2.2 million units (TSLA price target of $2,000)
2023 = 3.8 million units (TSLA price target of $3,000)
My friends were laughing at my model because they said it was too optimistic - my model was one million more than most analysts for 2022. But I said most analysts are too conservative. My model doesn't try to aim low or high, but just what I think the numbers will be.
So, far my prediction was right on the money. Tesla made 936,172 this year in 2021 and the stock price is $1000.
I think my 2022 would be correct too. Tesla made 308,000 units in Q4 of 2021. That would be 1.2 million in a year. If we add 20% on that, we would get 1.4 million units. Now let say Berlin and Austin Texas averages 100,000 units per quarter. Then Berlin and Austin Texas would churn out 400,000 units each in 2022. Model Y ramp-up in Berlin and Texas would not be as slow as Fremont. Tesla already know all the kinks on the Model Y production. It is not hard for me to imagine 100,000 units a quarter for each. So, 1.4 million (existing capacity) + 400,000 (Berlin) + 400,000 (Texas) = 2.2 million units in 2022.
The most crucial element is the 4680 batteries. This year demand is through the roof. Tesla has the factory capacity to make them. But without batteries, Tesla would have to hold back. So, batteries, batteries, batteries!
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Farzad, Gali: Elon has stated his #1 priority. That is notable, right? But you both seem intent on ignoring it, writing it off. I think you both probably disagree with him on it, but i also think neither of you want to disagree with him on anything. I like you both, but I think you’re doing your community a disservice by politely skipping over and underplaying the importance of the energy he is putting into his #1 priority.
His #1 priority? Destroying the “woke mind virus”.
The woke are people who see themselves as empathetic, caring, curious and wanting to do good in the world, people who want to stand in solidarity with the disempowered, people who want to sacrifice for the greater good, and who think others should too - and now Elon has made them his enemy. Why? These are people who are likely to be customers.
And please don’t gaslight us into thinking we are the crazy ones for not loving his heel turn.
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Love the content, I agree, announcing a gigafactory (china, maybe India), the 25K compact, with tax rebates will be the BEST value of any vehicle ever made, I think Semi is happening this year, have loved the concept of HVAC for a while, CT in the fall, waiting for Insurance to be available in Mass, WE NEED MORE GUITAR FARZAD !!!! AC/DC, Rage Against the Machine, Shinedown ??? Thanks for your thoughts. Can't wait to see what Elon and the team comes out with !!!!
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It's a common mistake people make believing GDP sets some sort of systemic economic limit. I'm not sure where people get it from. A market cap is established by a very small number of shares trading hands, establishing a per-share price, and then that price being multiplied by the shares outstanding, but most of the shares never get sold, and thus do not factor into the GDP themselves. So GDP (the amount of money that changes hands in an economy over a year) does not affect valuations in anyway, there is zero relationship there. If that is not intuitively obvious, just look at the US stock market at ~$50T, whereas the US GDP is only $20T, so the stock market is already 2.5x larger than GDP. That's to say nothing of the size of all of the other markets, real estate, commodities, debt, and so on, which all factor into the amount of outstanding wealth in the system, not measured by GDP. GDP is roughly the measure of the amount of liquidity in the system and the velocity of that liquidity, and not the value of the system itself.
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Great video, keep them coming. In regards to the tesla bot, you mentioned that there won't be that many parts, which I agree, but what do you think the price per kwh will be for the battery for the bot? Do you think the bot will be using the 4680 battery, LFP, SSB or something else? Will the bot need a special inverter for the battery? I predict the bot will come in 3 models, each having varying battery sizes for how long you want the bot to operate and what strength level you need the bot to operate. How long do you think the bot will last on a charge? Plus, I think you should have calculated into effect how the bot could disrupt the factory workforce. I'm also wondering by 2035 if people, or the gen z or gen alpha will want to buy a car in the future, which I feel like car purchases will drop since those generations will be conditioned by robo taxi, but the car purchases will most likely only drop in dense population areas. what's your thoughts?
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Ellie, you’re the bomb. Good thing that I got my creepy adoration for Farzad out and into the open early on—he demonstrated his tolerance straight away…Allows me to comment. What we all share, I think, is genuine admiration for Elon, for his global influence, et all…Rocket ships to Mars are his passion but that and the cars are byproducts to me…Aside from achievements, he heralds a new standard of civility for civilization, a greater standard of sustainability for humankind, and, …(let me search for words, just a moment…) by golly, he is installing hope where before there was despair. The world is melting down, as being reported since about 1972. He comes on the scene and says hey, I got a plan…And he actually puts that plan into motion. Materializes. It is turning out to be a paradigm shift for human consciousness, and gorgeous, clean machines to bypass the gas stations on the way back and forth through work, life, and the family errands. It is all real and at the same time unbelievable.
The new year kicked off for me with events of loss and trauma. (Life, it was more than one thing.) In November before, I got signed up to support the Ellie-In-Space show. One day fresh out of the hospital, picture me, sitting up with a bedpan beneath me, stitches above where my appendix used to be, iPad in my lap and eyes fixing upon a mocked-up family foto of Elon, a baby, and Ellie in the flesh, asking (me personally of course), “Is this too much?” Man, I got so happy I just about lost it.
Farzad, through his show, comes to me just days later. First time. He alleviates my concerns about the investment shift I had made, as I had moved my entire retirement portfolio into TSLA, no fooling around. What a relief! Turns out, they really knew what they were doing over there at the Fremont factory; and so here’s Farzad, just talking on his new show, giving me something to hang my hat on…It all served to let me focus on the good things in my life. This morning the iPad is frozen, in my lap again, with a YouTube frame shot of Ellie and Farzad, side-by-side. Ellie, you look so dam good, love the planetary set. Farzad, I have to quit looking. Your piercing eyes are a total distraction. But, the two of you, right there right now, talking to each other about what is and what should never be…I can’t believe how right it is, that below your lovely portraits, the third hashtag in dead-on journalistic style, blue type, says: #Passion.
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YES!!! I struggled with this immensely for years in the beginning of my career and still rears its ugly head every now and then and I must put myself back in check. I always had the self-imposed paradigm that I know I’m good at what I do. And my colleagues would see and appreciate my results etc. and I could just keep my head down and get it done! And when needed the data I collected would prove that we needed to replace or invest some money into a specific machine or process that was creating the most pain for the company at that point in time. But to my surprise sometimes I didn’t have the best outcomes.
I also told myself I would never be a “kiss ass” and later almost became bitter and quickly agree with people stating “It’s not what you know… its who you blow” forgive me for the crude figure of speech, but this almost became a mantra for us blue collar workers in my early years.
I have come a long way since then. However, I believe especially for us techies with a heavy dose of cerebral work, its extremely important to make time to learn to be a better communicator, advocate, and making yourself get out of your comfort zone to build relationships and trust with colleagues, customers, and those you serve.
Also, I’ve learned people may forget what you’ve done or said. BUT THEY ALWAYS REMEMBER HOW YOU MAKE THEM FEEL. So, make sure you are present and focused on them and not all the other easy distractions we encounter these days. And bring the positive energy, it’s contagious! Take a moment to breath and reset your mindset before walking into that office, meeting, conversation, conference call, etc. if needs be.
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Nice to see both of you exchanging ideas on so many different subject, so here is my take on education:
I would put all the kids, regardless of their age, in the same big/large room with many different area of knowledge, music, painting, drawing, language, history, maths, physic, chemistry, writing and so on with teachers that are keen on there matter. Then let the kids go around and learn about all that is available until they, by themselves, are attracted to what makes them vibrate the most.
I have been saying this for many years that our education system is a failure.
Btw forgive my grammar and phrasing as I am a french canadian and english is not my first language.
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Love your content Farzad, but I respectfully disagree. X is unlikely to survive as a platform. Musk has permanently alienated many of his largest advertisers and doesn't want to please them anyway. HIs idea for an "everything app" will not work, as AI assistants on mobile devices will provide seamless UIs that will make it easy to use any number of default apps for any number of purposes. I'm already using the Gemini app on my phone for this purpose, for example. It's not seamless yet, but it should improve over time. The potential is astounding.
Musk will have to sell more Tesla stock if he cannot make X profitable, or he'll have to sell or shutdown the platform. If he sells the platform, who will buy it as long as he's its power user? I think any deal will likely involve him deleting his account. He will lose X, not only as the owner, but even as a user. This is obviously bad for all of his other ventures.
Also, Musk lost me with what I consider to be consistently, piggishly selfish and otherwise immoral behavior, though I still respect Tesla and SpaceX and want them to survive and even thrive. I think a once great man has fallen, having grown arrogant, complacent, and perhaps increasingly mentally ill. This is similar to what happened to Edison, for example.
I will never support someone who boosts the likes of Alex Jones, Andrew Tate, etc. To say such pepple should not have a voice in a decent society is an understatement. That doesn't mean the government should be able to censor them, but any decent private platform certainly should.
It is a huge mistake to try to cmake a "public good" profitable. By definition, public goods do not produce profits for owners.
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Personally, my greatest difficulty in judging the EV car market, aside from your analysis that I agree with, is the long term reliability and viability of new OEMs for whom we have no historical record. By example, the Lucid might be an excellent car to own for 10 years, or it might be a disaster. They don't have the CV of Ford, GM, et al. Buying the specs for ICE cars has never worked, so there is no reason it should now work with EVs. My hypothesis is that this is part of Tesla's success as well. While 11 years (incep of model S) is not long, it is huge compared to a Lucid, BYD, Nio, etc. The jury is still out on whether ATTO3, MG5, etc. owners will be happy 5 years from now. I would estimate that there will be a shakeout in the Chinese and other NEV automakers not just in pricing, but also in their long term reliability. Battery longevity will especially get much attention since there are so many different grades of battery in China. Once in a pack, who knows which ones they used?
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Oh man, this is easily one of the best videos on your channel! I especially resonated with the topics on cultural change, particle collider, reset, mars… I certainly want to encourage Jordan to do the video he mentioned. I was so surprised how much insight he has into society, culture, corruption, bureaucracy,... Oh man, I was thinking he is a “battery guy” (I hope this will not offend him), but he is a super genius! Cannot wait for more…
I was even thinking, I envy you that you can talk to people like him. I mean it in a good way (not with my ego) and you definitely earned it!
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Good report. Absolutely, the Model Y is the greatest road trip car - ever. I've done some very long trips in mine. As a long time long distance driver I'm always looking for the 'nods:' your chin drops for a split second. What I learned 30 years ago is that 'split second' can be as long as ten minutes. I've often driven too much, started to experience one of these, so I pull over and sleep. No alarm. Seems like in 45 minutes I wake up and I'm good for several more hours. (Not the best way to drive, but...) I never get these with my Model Y. Those small focused lane keeping tweaks are really stressful and tiring - FSD eliminates them.
Also, I've only had Regular FSD, last week I got Beta. The difference is significant. After two years of Regular FSD I love it, it did 'dumb things,' but I wouldn't want to be without it. Beta is significantly better, even on the freeways where Regular FSD does well. (I wanted to change my navigation while on the freeway so I turned off the Navigate button leaving FSD on. It went back to driving like the old Regular FSD. Good but not clearly not nearly as aware and capable as the Beta.) I've watched dozens of FSD Beta videos, sure Beta does more and does streets; until I experienced it I really had no idea how much better at even the things Regular did well is the Beta.
The seats and SuperCharger naps? have some memory foam pillows, a blanket (compressible down blankets from Costco are perfect), turn the AC to about 69° (20C), and cover your eyes (I use a black t-shirt - no gaps). I have no idea why anyone would smoke weed when they can do this. Bliss.
It gets better, or weirder. Driving cross country I now think of hotels being for showers and potty time, my Tesla is for sleeping. If I've showered that morning I'm just driving the next day? I like to just pull my Y over and sleep in the car. (I have a narrow memory foam mattress that folds up, a sleeping bag, (a liner) and the pillow. I've also done a lot of camping and hostels so I've done this for years. There is nothing cozier than a Tesla. The AC is better than any hotel I've ever stayed in. So camp mode is tops. I can't wait for the Cybertruck.
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My highlights:
7:07 Fast beyond expectations.
45:15 In the next ~20y Elon could "rescue": housing, education, money, governments, news/media/facts, transparency.
IMO it fits with what he has done, is doing, will have to do (in order above), and how he ticks. Other people alluded to this too.
47:50 Asset placement might aim to mitigate future conflicts.
IMO plausible. Seeking protection was the obvious thought, but this grand 4D chess vision is more like Elon.
52:36 Big risk #1: Government actions. Reactionary ostracism could lock whole countries away.
IMO not out of the question, but damn near unpredictable (because irrational).
54:23 Big risk #2: Elon assassination. The companies would still continue for long on the master plan, but lose the heart and further vision to it.
IMO way too likely. So many powerful, corrupt people stand to lose so much.
1:15:29 Great way to work, but not tot live.
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I subscribed to this channel first because Sandy Munro suggested it, then second because you was a Tesla employee and have a perspective that most other youtube channels don't and keep watching you now because you appear to be less rehearsed and thus, more genuine as a person.
Interesting that you have broken down interests into people, things and ideas. I haven't given that much thought, but I imagine there is some good logic in that. Elon is one that builds great things for humanity, great ideas for humanity and acts on the ideas for building the great things for humanity. His focus seems to be on humanity...people or the human race (consciousness) in general. The ideas come from his focus on humanity and the things he makes comes from his action on those ideas. My take is that Elon has an almost enigmatic love for humanity of which ideas for humanity are born. He takes that further by acting on those ideas generating wonderful things for humanity. My mother once told me to NOT make love a NOUN. Love should be an ACTION VERB and therein lies its true VALUE. I believe Elon has taken that to it's highest level thus far.
I think it is difficult to not like or love Elon because he does those three things, he loves and that brings ideas and he acts on those ideas creating things to help the humanity he loves. That trifecta is (in my opinion) unstoppable. His public appearances and tweets expose his personality, the good, the bad and the ugly. He is sometimes hard to understand, but that is what makes him much more human than alien. If his appearance was overly composed and his speech was that of a professional speaker, the genuine Elon would be hidden and suspect.
It has been said that those who serve people are the richest of all. Maybe it is easy to mistake monetary wealth for riches. I would say; let it be known that money is simply another tool Elon has acquired to help him act on his concern for humankind. The riches are the things we will all likely share in the form of what he is making available to us all, his ideas that are acted upon toward a better and brighter future.
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Elon musk shares
162,963,251
Wealth in Tesla shares
141,901,880,440.76
Tesla share options
101,280,000
Wealth in Tesla options
88,190,572,800
SpaceX
SpaceX evaluation
100,000,000
Percentage of company
43.63
Wealth in SpaceX
43,630,000,000
Boring company
Evaluation
5,750,000,000
Percentage of company
80
Wealth in boring company
4,600,000,000
Twitter
Evaluation
43,000,000,000
Percentage of company
51
Wealth in Twitter
21,930,000,000
Private wealth
70,160,000,000
Public wealth
230,092,453,240.76
Share price 870.76
264,243,251 shares
Max share price 1250
330,304,063,750
2022
Total max wealth
400,464,063,750
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Farzad, good job with your risk assessment. I was disappointed that you didn't address my biggest fear for Tesla...Government intervention. As the company grows, it will take a bigger bite out of the legacy auto makers who, of course, will fight for their survival. The cash flowing from the legacy auto makers goes deep into other parts of the economy such as advertising on main stream media, news network, sport teams, stadium sponsorship, political venues, etc. And we must include subcontractor and suppliers. I expect some sort of stronger resistance from the government to protect that cash flow (yes, UAW) some of which is already occurring with FUD. The next two years should be interesting. Your thoughts along lines would be interesting.
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I don’t agree with most of it. It’s in China’s interest to help Tesla, as they have so much pollution and are the cause of so much pollution. They need Tesla, even with other companies like byd etc. Tesla’s will be so much more reliable than others. They innovate so fast to remove parts, especially compared to others, and nobody else is coming close to the scale Tesla has or vertices integration, so don’t think their reliability will ever be less than average. Service. There is so little service Tesla’s probably need in general, and even if so they blow away the competition in so many other ways that the overall positive word of mouth will still be strong. FSD. Tesla doesn’t need fsd this decade to prosper. They can fail at fsd and still win massively with just ev sales, and let alone everything else, energy, dojo, insurance, and whatever else etc. plus I don’t believe at all there is a 10% that fsd is worse than average human after another 8 years of progress on it. It will probably be better than average human in next year, or two at the most. In some ways it probably already is better than the average human. 60,000 beta testers (probably more now), and not a single crash yet. Try saying that for the average population
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Legacy auto has a long way to go before they can actually compete - if they can. The German and American manufacturers can only hope to buy their major OEM suppliers, in my opinion, to vertically integrate.
I believe that this will be the catalyst that crushes at least a couple of automakers, where they will have to merge or die.
OEMs make parts for multiple manufacturers- so someone will be left out in the cold.
If they start to vertically integrate themselves, which is not a core competency, it will be a heck of a struggle. We have had multiple customers in-house work and then come back to us to keep them afloat - sometimes we have open capacity to help them - sometimes we don’t - and once the relationship has been damaged, we aren’t always inclined to offer competitive prices or meet desired lead times. Why cheerfully support a customer that dropped you on your head and still plans to de-source you? Once you alienate key suppliers, you are at substantial risk.
Since vertical integration is far more difficult to retrofit into a business rather than starting fresh, as you suggested, the likelihood is that they won’t understand their costs and cannot manage a much much wider supply chain efficiently.
Big Auto might know how to run a lean production line but they don’t seem to know how to run lean and mean on the administrative and engineering side. It takes a lot of raw talent and accountability, also as you mentioned, to be agile and efficient.
Vertical integration is “specializing in everything” and automakers are used to throwing their weight around to get their way. It doesn’t work out so well when you all share the same bottom line - nobody to assess line-down charges to - no cost of poor quality penalties. How will they handle this?
The Japanese probably won’t have this same problem. The way of the Keiretsu will be much more supportive of the needed changes without as much vertical integration. Japan will struggle with speed and iterative changes of substance. While kaizen is a powerful tool for efficiency, the cultural aversion to risk makes it shockingly difficult to challenge the accepted path. Tesla’s quality issues would also be unconscionable to Toyota or Honda - too risky. Their domestic sales will not likely suffer while they stroll into the BEV market, but I bet that even Toyota’s recent attitude change and Japan’s increased incentives will take a long time to come to fruition on the world stage and the Chinese might get far enough ahead of them to really hurt their future market share. Now who would’ve thought that was going to happen?
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First of all, what you are talking about is the coming of Universal Income. That alone is HUGE.
Looking at "loaded" labor costs, you may be underestimating the cost. Consider medical, HR overhead, ergonomic costs in production (cost avoidance), disability costs avoidance, management overhead costs, SSI and unemployment benefits cost and overhead that supported those costs. At a global company I worked at, it was approx. average of 40k per visit to clinic due to workplace injuries. I think the number was about 15% of the workforce had a work injury visit to the clinic. That cost was above and beyond actual "loaded" labor costs. It also means that wage or income taxes will basically be abolished. Now the funding that income taxes will have to come from other sources. It could be that taxes on robot uses based on "work type and value" will have to be implemented.
On the other hand, I think the scaled cost of the robot will be about twice what you are predicting...on average. The actual cost of individual robots will likely depend on use cases. The cost of scaling the robots abilities and production in the beginning will be very costly. The first functional robot ready for prime time will probably have cost about 100m or so USD. The considerations are extreme in both parts and technology. An example: will micro electric motors be use or will charged and discharged fibers be used that contract and distend like human muscles be used? There is likely to be cables (tendons) and fabrics (ligaments) used in the construction. There will be a cooling system or something like a miniature heat pump system used in the robot (part of the circulatory system) and a wired network (nervous system). I could go on and on.
However, I think you did give a very thought provoking analysis of the potential. Regardless of how accurate you might be, it does give one a better sense of just how profound robotics can be in the very near future. Great job!
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For me paramount is the INFORMATION you generously put effort to bring to us. It's the "core", everything else, the means by which you do that, it's "uncore".
The MEANS by which you share that info, injecting your "style", be it your body, voice, etc are a BONUS, and i mean that completely not as an offense.
It's simply a fact that if you were a gardening, cooking, drawing, etc channel i wouldn't be here, no matter how charming you were about gardening :)
HOW you choose to do that, with whatever balance of effort, efficiency, sanity-saving tools, pacing, etc all the "uncore" stuff, i completely accept, and have a TON of tolerance as long as you bring the good "core" stuff :)
Some people might prefer the sizzle more than the steak, but for me i'm here for the meaty info, and any sizzle it might have, and however you choose to sizzle it, i'm grateful for it all ❤
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I am sure we are aware of the movie The Big Short wherein only a handful of people were fortunate to see the unfortunate collapse of the housing market and and were able to capitalize on it over time. I feel like I am a character who is fortunate to be in a similar themed movie, but with a different title. It's called The Big Long, wherein a handful of people (relative to the entire investment community) sees an obvious and incredible investment opportunity, that may be once in a lifetime. That''s why I am ALL IN on my investment in Tesla. And, when I say ALL IN, that's exactly what I mean. I don't own any other stock in both my IRA or personal portfolio. After buying a Model X in 2017, (I drive it everyday as if it was my first day) and watching the company from afar, I decided to bet the ranch on Elon. At 83, with some history behind me, I learned to bet on the man more so than the company. With Berlin and Austin coming on line and all the other obvious developments that that are in front of our eyes, I consider myself in this movie that is going to have a wonderful ending. This is not at the expense of individual misery, but our good fotune to live in a time of Elon Musk.
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OK ... finally watched the whole thing.
I don't know how things will work, but this is NOT it.
First point is that early settlers on Mars will want to be protected from cosmic rays. Eventually we may be able to establish an artificial magnetic field that can both deflect cosmic rays and protect any atmosphere which we try to establish on Mars, but for a long time people will want serious shielding, at least for their sleeping quarters and routine duties. The cheapest way to do this is to go underground, and dirt and stone is really good shielding for this. We can also make use of existing lava tubes which, thanks to the low gravity, are much bigger on Mars than on Earth. These will allow settlers to have a sense of space, but we still won't want glass on top - other than possibly a few relatively small skylights. They'll get most of their light from LEDs instead (unless we come up with something even better). Full spectrum lighting is not that difficult to provide.
Of course they will also want some viewing rooms with windows where settlers can look directly outside, but even here they will probably want relatively small windows and rooms that can be separated from large indoor spaces, because another concern is vacuum. They will not want a large volume of space where everyone could quickly die from a broken window. Lava tubes can be used largely as they are, though settlers might bring some sort of inflatable or spray plastic to seal the inside of the lava tubes against vacuum in order to get things started.
Second point is that there are plenty of resources on Mars, especially in terms of things like iron for steel and silicon for glass. They won't ship more than is needed to get started.
Third point is that they will send robots first because they won't be harmed if exposed to vacuum - and also the extreme cold on the surface. I've worked in Antarctica - trust me, cold slows you down a lot_. Using robots, even if they are simply directly controlled by operators via remote links rather than by software, will make everything _much easier on settlers and allow things to be built much more quickly. (Speaking of Antarctica, domes seemed like a great idea when they built the dome at South Pole in the 1970s, but it turned out not to work very well. They finally demolished it about ten years ago. The arches, which in effect would be similar to lava tubes on the inside, worked MUCH better and are still in use - and were in fact expanded even while the dome was being decommissioned.)
Fourth point is that the Boring Company is developing the sort of technology that can both provide more usable space and provide material for producing building materials and other products. It might be possible, for example, to bore smaller tunnels for corridors and roads, and larger diameter cross tunnels to put housing, modular greenhouses, and similar supporting structures in - these separated from the tunnel walls and on short stilts to isolate these quarters somewhat from the very low temperatures of the rock itself. This is a variety of the "building in a box" method of underground construction that is also used in the arches at the South Pole Station. The material excavated from the tunnels could be treated in several ways, both to extract useful minerals and elements and to grind some into soil to allow somewhat "natural" areas where fruit trees and grass and the like can be grown in the larger spaces of lava tubes (presumably with some sort of insulation under the soil to keep it from freezing solid). Boring tunnels can also connect different lava tubes and different communities. Of course there will need to be ways to quickly cut off various sections in case there is an air leak.
Those are just a few of the more obvious points about what would be a reasonable way to build infrastructure on Mars. Other than a few small structures to get started I don't see much in the way of structural materials being brought from Earth, and apart from a few specialty structures it seems insane to me to build anything on the surface - at least until there has been some geoengineering that might take centuries to complete.
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0:32: 📚 The difficulty and excitement of writing a book on Elon Musk and his achievements in the last two years.
5:17: ! The book is driven by stories and narratives, allowing readers to form their own judgments.
10:26: ! Elon Musk's passion and drive for cosmic endeavors and practical means to achieve them, as well as his occasional dark moods.
16:24: 📺 The speaker discusses his close exposure to a person and their businesses, addressing the unfair media coverage they receive.
21:09: 🚀 Elon Musk aims to improve the Raptor engine for Starship launch, while also looking towards the future.
26:44: 📺 Elon Musk's son inspired him to create a stainless steel exoskeleton for the Cybertruck and Starship, allowing the future to look like the future.
31:41: 🤖 Elon Musk's work ethic and focus are often compared to that of a robot.
37:26: ! Elon Musk did not read the book before it was released and has not provided extensive feedback on it.
42:32: 🚀 Elon Musk's tolerance for pain and stress is exceptionally high, especially when it comes to handling crew Dragon missions.
47:22: 💬 The speaker spent about two years shadowing Elon Musk and his family members, talking to them for several hours a day.
52:53: 📚 The biographer had fun living in an Airstream trailer in Boca Chica, Texas near Elon Musk's house.
58:46: ✨ The speaker reflects on his experiences with Leonardo and Elon Musk, realizing the importance of disruptors and the need to keep a larger mission in mind.
1:04:05: 🤔 The video discusses Elon Musk's radical honesty and transparency, and whether it is perceived the same from the inside and outside.
Recap by Tammy AI
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It's crazy that you came out with this video when I was thinking about this last Friday on Mars Parallels. This is what I had:
To build Mars colonization:
Starlinks / Mapping Satellites - establish communication foundation. Will have a monopoly on mars communications.
AGI Robots - to construct buildings, roads, infrastructure
Housing w/HVAC - to house occupants safely while maintaining occupants mental health.
Mining Factory - to build batteries for transport, housing, grid storage. Tesla will be the first miners and will have a monopoly.
Boring Company - will be used to build tunnels on mars for underground transit system or underground colony.
Factories - to build houses, vehicles, grid storage, robots, roads, terraformers, etc
Vehicles - Cars / Vtols for occupants to travel and explore mars
Vertical Farming - provides sustainable food for colonization.
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I've worked in many industries from nuclear to arboriculture and one commonality from all jobs is others that haven't done that sort of work underestimate the difficulty of that work. As they develop Bots could take over a higher percentage of that job but would still need a human for that remaining percentage. In a work area thats job dense then this has more potential, but things like landscaping isn't that way, most companies are small doing small varied work. The Bot would have to be cheap to be viable, at least until the Bot became very adaptable.
But there again the work I was doing last week would be quite easy for a FSD+, giving the vehicles we were using the potential to do the work. We had a grader, backhoe, roller, skid steers, broom and trucks working. Most of the work was very repetitive, but constant issues occur, a cow attacking the grader for a weird example. But if the vehicles were automated a couple of people with the knowledge of work involved and mechanical skill (machines break quite often, especially when working in the conditions we were last week).
So I guess my point is theres no simple answer. Guess it's what percentage of that task can be done by a Bot and when the economics kick in.
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It could lead to even more job losses. A given job can be said to have a multiplier effect; i.e., a particular job creates some number of additional jobs because of the money the first worker now has to spend. First worker is displaced, no longer working, then those jobs that depended on that person's earnings and spending can likewise disappear. And a lot of those jobs vulnerable to displacement by bots are held by people who, by some combination of inclination and inherent cognitive ability, are not really good material for doing something further up the chain that is currently beyond the capability of bots. So, what to do with those persons? They still need to eat, have shelter, clothing, etc. How does society handle the situation? Following that question way, way down the rabbit hole, and you are facing the question of: why does an economy need people? Or, of what use are people? This has been a topic in science fiction literature for as long as I can remember, and I am pushing 80. But now, rather then simply speculating, we as a society may need to really come to grips with it.
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In terms of simulating this, building the design structure on earth would be a good starting point. Moving a moon base after that would be a good idea to take the light of consciousness technically off the planet, in a place that is close enough to be visible from earth. Construction is a technical space that has a lot of unknowns, requires a lot of coordination and uses a lot of materials designed for earth. Building services is the next technical aspect. Furthermore, sustainability is the next big hurdle to overcome... fuel production, oxygen production, food and water production, etc. There is an absolutely monumental amount of stuff that needs to be considered to make this remotely possible. I think SpaceX should have their first attempt on the moon. The lessons learnt would be huge, the time to implement much faster and the costs reduced. Additionality, if considered as a safety barrier, at least the moon can be accessed 24 hourly, compared to Mars which can only occurs every few years.
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Yes Farzad, fantastic staff. Been in the market ups and down for about 50 years I learned a lot the hard way It used to be very complicated, at times day trading, others timing the market , most of the time a nervous wreck and most of the time going nowhere or even backward. For your young age you have plenty financial wisdom, only in my late years understood Warren Buffet philosophy, and coming to realize that no one knows the future and even the great gurus every time they screw up they suffer too. Finally i have come to realize that investing is dead easy, and it boils down only how good is your research and how deep you need to go to investigate the stock that looks very good on the surface, but it could be a dud. The more I looked at Tesla the more impressed i became, No it isn't perfect either, and I would love to change a few things. But Elon team is so strong end so committed in everything they do, and delivers, and delivers over and over again that I would feel to be a fool if I didn't give then my money to work with, as I have failed to discover anything even close to the magnificent machine that will eventually conquer the entire car industry for future decennials. I don't give a hoot how crazy the market will perform, and i don't give a hoot of the great pressure put on Elon Musk by the enemy press, the US government , the NHSA, the law suits initiated by a couple of losers. or the Berlin imbroglio, of the scared to death German auto industry prompting the German government to decide not to outlaw the ICE cars beyond 2035 Which tells me loud and clear that Tesla is taking away the cream of their customers away . The trade union and the dealers association and the Ad industry are hurting and they will not lose a single chance directly or indirectly to try and sink Tesla. But they cannot. They tried with billions to short Tesla out of business and they lost their pants. I stop here, Tesla is winning , it is not a flash in the pan they have been systematically winning for years because they have discovered the holy grail of what people would really love to drive, end they went on and they gave it to them.I don't care if tomorrow sinks to 100 , i will stick around because the numbers produced are telling me that they are worth right now at least 2000 or 20.000 and beyond in a few years when all the chips will start to be gathered along with their magnificent profits thanks to the superior products that are impossible to catch up.
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.. Cont
Even the basic use-case of factory or mine worker, if a bot can replace one worker, even if they lease it for MORE than that worker's salary, it's still worthwhile for employer bc no other overheads (such as safety, Healthcare, breaks etc).
But bot can work almost 24/7, so it's nominally worth 3 workers' salaries, and could possibly work much faster than humans, so let's say a bot can work like 6 workers and Tesla takes SALARY of 3 human workers, employer enjoys the other 3 +overheads.
(example of faster speed - for example car production line could accelerate to faster than human speeds, an alien dreadnought spitting out cars as fast as gigacastings can be made bc humans stop being a bottleneck!).
So just about all factories in the world would love to lease Bots, and that's before expansions and new industrial opportunities - so that's unlimited potential, even before using Bots for general use outside factories (such as companion for elderly etc). Using the "bot replaces 6 workers, Tesla takes 3 of their salaries" example, means that just in basic factory workers role, Tesla could be getting the current salaries of half the world's factory workforce!!!
She says Tesla will succeed bc they're now able to attract the best talent and having them work laser focused on a mission, with top management having the gut feeling and knowhow on which roads to pursue and which not worthy exploring. Talent and focus define what a company is capable of.
MY QUESTION - do you think Tesla is indeed trying to become the world's leading AI company? Do you think they'll indeed be in a leading position for solving bot and AGI? What makes you think so?
Thanks again. Really enjoying your content.
( if you want to see my interview, just search my channel for "AI Day Repercussions")
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I think it would be far too bullish to think that 40% of the automotive market would be able to purchase a car that costs 46k, this is plausible in somewhere like the United States, but the 100M cars isn't just in the United States. Currently China accounts for 1/3 of the current world's cars sold. Most of the growth in automobile sales from now to 2035 would probably come from countries like China, India, Brazil, Nigeria etc. So if theres 100M cars sold in 2035, probably at least 2/3s of those would come from developing countries. In China, EV's are extremely popular, however, Tesla is never going to get anywhere close to 40% adoption rate because people right now can buy a small EV for 2000 dollars. When the median income in developing countries sits at less than 5k, nobody is going to be able to buy a 47k dollar car. Considerably lower incomes in developing nations also mean full self driving/robo taxis would be able to charge far less money. For companies, profit margins tend to decrease as the company matures. A 25% profit margin on EV's sold seems very generous, as Apple, the company that sells overpriced phones for 1k has 25% profit margin.
Other potential issues include global lithium supplies being depleted as we still don't know what the next battery technology is, the costs of building energy grids/charging stations, as well as the potential for competitors in the industries you've detailed. 14 years is a long time from now especially in the world of software and gives plenty of opportunities for competitors such as Apple to come up with their own self driving software.
As such issues start making a 49k evaluation shrink, we also have to realize that the s&p 500 itself would be forecasted to grow about 4 times in value by 2035. Tesla has a beta sitting at around 2 right now and all of a sudden the company isn't nearly as an attractive of an investment.
I know it seems like I'm being very critical but I do appreciate that you took the time to present your case.
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Thank you Farzad! You confirmed, and tied together, so much of what I know but had not quite congealed into the conclusion you put forth based on your three points. The aha!! Revelation that had not hit, but that did because of your video, is that people become so much more if who they can be, likely who they were meant to be, when they work at Tesla, and THAT is why they stay and more will ALWAYS come in and do as well or better than those that came before. Wow! That the result of the Agile system that Joe Justice created being done so well at Tesla. Joe Justice worked at Tesla for four months or so and said he’d never seen the system implemented so well that he firmly believes no other company will ever be as efficient as Tesla. But that has created what you, Farzad, gave detailed here: en environment like no other that brings out the best in people that they themselves could have never imagined was in them. That I believe, and is a deep and important insight for me, a Tesla investor who retired on my investments, but now is looking for “what’s next”? Maybe I should now go work at Tesla …. maybe. Would seem backwards: retire, have no need to work, but go to work again ti experience that environment and find a passion again.
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These figures are share options included. There are 12 trenches of 8,440,000 shares Elon should qualify for the last 2 trenches in Q2 2022. 101,280,000 total shares at a low low price of 70.01 What a deal
Elon’s net worth now-10 to 15 billon Not included from Twitter
269,718,505, 294.61
Share price 787.11
Peak share price 2021 1229
385,484,955,479 plus 10 to 15 billion not included from Twitter.
This is pretty fun like playing Monopoly.
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GUITARS!!! Aloha Farzad, I wanted to say Thank you for the wonderful insight into Tesla and your journey! I am so happy for you and your wife! Tesla has also brought me and my wife financial freedom (and a Model Y), being fortunate enough to have accumulated a good number of shares over the years, though we still plan to work a few more years so that our son can take over our practice. FYI, what drew me to your channel initially, was seeing the guitars in the background! My wife and I are financial planners helping people retire, but I also play guitar in a rock cover band! We only play a couple Metallica songs right now but play many other songs by STP, Alice in Chains, Foo Fighters, Velvet Revolver, AC/DC, etc... In fact, the bass player and I are headed off to see Metallica in San Francisco this month! awesome!
I've been to many guitar workshops, like the most recent John Petrucci universe 3.0. I highly recommend going to one of these! Next one, I'm considering is Steve Vai academy August 2022 in Vegas. I wish you all the best and look forward to viewing more videos! Happy Holidays! Mahalo, Rob
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@FarzadMediaINC thanks for replying, not taking my question as rude. Great new video, reasoning makes sense. You would do well (imo) with podcasts. Chatting to other TSLA longtime retail investors(Eg Jason debolt), employees, ex employees, new companies made by those ex employees, things world needs (so few products people love) etc. Whatever you do, good luck. I've been investing since 2013, at $35/share and yeah, company changed my financial security and I also resigned from my company. Great content: rational, clear, but still genuine, with good energy.
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The world is a dangerous place to live, like you pointed out, there are dangers out there, but looking at all spectrum of investment vehicles, and looking at their potential growth I fail to identify a single stock or ETF with a better potential than Elon Musk creations. There are thousands very capable CEO out there, in some specialties even better then Elon Musk, But I feel that Elon Musk will be able to deliver in the long run by far better results than any of them, simply because he is a relentless machine that when he puts his teeth in a tough job he usually delivers, perhaps not in time , but he will delivers. Naturally Elon is not perfect and he is bound to make mistakes, but his pluses are so many and exciting, that I feel very safe in putting my money in whichever projects he chooses to work on and in whichever direction he feels he will need to go. Am I blindly in love with Tesla? Not really. But looking at the competition and knowing what I know about Tesla cars, sincerely I feel sorry for them for having to go through the crashing grind they will need to go through to survive. Let alone to be a menace to Tesla magnificent machines. Sure there will be moments of uncertainty and problems ahead, it is to be expected, but I see also hundreds of quarters ahead with back to back stellar results beyond present imagination, Why worry, do your best and then relax and let life carry you forward, we cannot control everything, there are so many intangibles out there beyond our control, but we cannot let them freeze our life in fear. I have done my very best, I seat back and wait for the results that are bound to come, for the critical fundamentals all of them are in place.
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I agree with your point that mining will be one part of the new master plan, maybe even a relatively big one. Unfortunately, I disagree with many of the specific points you made, though.
I'm not very knowledgable on mining, but I know that the most common type of mine is the open pit mine, which does not require boring. Maybe The Boring Company (TBC) could be used for some kinds of mines, but probably not many; open pit mines are simply more economical. Certainly, TBC will not be used to mine Lithium, the first material that Tesla will tackle; Elon presented on battery day their plan to mine Lithium by just shoveling up earth and using a special process for refining it that they developed -> no boring needed.
Tunnels will likely also not be used for transporting the mined materials from the mine to the distributed center; tunnels are for inner cities, where infrastructure density is crucial. Outside, you should use trains or above-ground trucks to get materials from mine to distribution center, because it is inherently cheaper (yes, it would still be cheaper even if TBC achieves all of its cost goals. If they can build a street inside a tunnel cheaply, they can build it cheaper outside of a tunnel.)
On a related topic, Starship is NOT cheap for transportation on earth (at 2Mio$ per launch of 100 to 150 tons material); it is very fast and just cheap enough for it to be worth it to some well-off individuals, but likely not more. Really, it is only cheap as a means to get things into space, and only because that is so damn difficult and expensive. Trains, trucks, and ships are much, much cheaper, and speed is not that important with raw materials if you aren't completely incompetent at planning. Supply issues come in large part from governments (especially China) closing ports; why would they not close spaceports, too? The supply shortages also come from too little semiconductor manufacturing, and if Elon thinks that making cars is difficult, getting into semiconductor manufacturing would really blow his mind (besides the fact that simply waiting is easily enough, with how many hundreds of billions of dollars all semiconductor manufacturers are investing into new production capacities; this problem will be solved before Tesla could even build their first plant). Semis with FSD, and sourcing materials locally as much as possible will be much more effective than using Starship. Transportation really isn't the bottleneck for raw-material supplies, it's the mining itself that is a problem. On a side-note, what SpaceX does have for Tesla is, for example, good materials engineers, who already helped with creating the Aluminum alloy used for the Gigacastings, which will help immensely with scale.
I also wonder if the Tesla bot would really be useful in mines. Are humans currently there for jobs other than piloting the giant machines? If not, the machines themselves could be automated, no Tesla bot needed for controlling them. This would reduce complexity in the manufacturing of the machines, because the driver's cabin and all the ways for the driver to interact with the machine wouldn't be needed anymore (and no Tesla bot would have to be supplied, either). Again, I think that open-pit mines are only entered by machines, currently driven by humans. Maybe, just maybe, the Tesla bot could be used in other kinds of mining operations, or to do some simple repairs.
Creating homes is an interesting idea for Tesla. I think that it is definitely possible, but still pretty unlikely. The only reason for doing it is for making the installation of Tesla's other products (in which they have a competitive advantage which they can extend through R&D) easier, but that can happen in partnership with other developers, as well. Those developers can create homes built with and for Tesla products like Solar roof + powerwall + car charger + HVAC (at some point). Homes are simply too strongly regulated for Elon, I think. Building the homes themselves would also create a possible bottleneck for the installation of solar and storage, and would probably mean that other developers wouldn't want to partner with Tesla. It has never been mentioned by Elon, either, unlike all the other projects. Again, it's possible; maybe with bricks from TBC and help from the Tesla bot, homes can be made so cheaply that it would be worth it, but I somehow doubt that Tesla will build homes anytime soon.
More generally, I think AI will be the most important part of the new master plan by far, not mining. FSD alone would be absolutely revolutionary, and would significantly reduce the amount of batteries needed for cars, because now cars could get significantly more usage out of them. It would completely overhaul transportation, and strengthen supply chains. The Tesla bot could (if it works out) be used for every part of manufacturing -- yes, homebuilding, and yes, maybe mining, but also chip production, toy production, ship, car, plane, spaceship, plastic bag, training bike, gun, sextoy, table, etc production; it could replace most agricultural workers, and potentially many people working in homes (cleaning, repetitive tasks in cooking, security, ...), and probably more. That is why Elon says that the Tesla bot is the most important part of Tesla, and why he keeps talking and talking about the importance of AI to Tesla and the world at large; mining is only a small part of it. Oh, and who knows what other AI-related things Tesla might begin doing in the future.
The integration of everything into SpaceX's plans is on point, though.
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I was working in a startup 20 years ago.
The amount of energy, passion, brut force, innovation, department cross pollination was amazing.
Our product and clients was the end goal for everybody.
But the company got acquired by a conglomerate that killed all that mentality.
We got stuffed by endless guidelines, rigid rules, rigid procedures, failure avoidance, risk aversion.
With time a lot of brains left the company. Others employees that stayed were more serving the supervisors goal than the company goal.
Inter-department sharing/works was heavily deterred.
I have seen some supervisors or departments making another supervisor or department look bad for their own personal gains.
At the end, the work became superficial, unfulfilling and frustrating for a majority of original employees.
The company went BK less then 10 years after acquisition.
Hopefully that corporate sickness doesn’t contaminate Tesla.
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First of all thanks for your insight and your thoughts :) Now the feedback part:
- Your audio could be a bit better as there is a reverb
- You are often using old numbers or not precise ones, when they are out there. Try to look them up (people in the world, actual operating margin etc.) as your videos then become higher quality with denser and more precise information.
- Why do you have a specific number for the semi but not the other ones?
- I totally do not understand the country thing. That is an unnecessary step. If you say you can throw a dart at a map then why do it at all? Just look at how many people would actually be able to buy one (having enough money). There will be numbers out there, probably from the United Nations.
- There was no autobidder included right? Or did I miss it?
- You could also include the various other business areas such as Superchargers, Insurance, Premium Connectivity, Dojo as a Service, Restaurants, Solarfarms, HVAC, the use of the data from the robotaxis (telling cities about holes in the street, analysis of this years favorite fashion colour etc.) etc.
- Maybe most important: the stock price will change because of more stock that will be available.
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This is, hands down, the best video put forward by a Youtuber in the Tesla community lately. Given the company you are in, e.g Dave Lee, Rob M, SMR etc.. Who all put out amazing content, hopefully that statement means something. I just appreciate somebody facing up and saying what everybody knows within themselves, but might not want to admit. That is, that being an investor, especially a TSLA investor, is not a walk in the park, and it is also not the only aspect of life that is important.
Gosh this video is so important and refreshing. Stay strong TSLA investors!
I had seen a bunch of your videos before, but then when I saw this one, I asked myself, Why am I not subscribed to Farzad? .. Which I now am.. Keep up the great work!
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The reason for this insane division is simple, corruption. Politicians often want to do unpopular things, either for their own agenda, or just because they are paid to do them. But in a democracy you cant get into power, or stay there, if you are unpopular. The solution for that is steering the conversation away from those issues to something that invokes strong emotions. Manufacture an existential threat, that only you can solve, and you can do anything you want. This is hard to do if everyone gets the same news and same opinions, so it helps to have your own media. This is why Fox News was created, for example. Politicians want to create division and stop public conversation because then they can freely lie about the other side and stay in power no matter how bad job they are doing otherwise. Social media just happened to give them the perfect tool on a silver plate. People are naturally kept in their own personal bubble, which is perfect for manipulating their political views. And hate is an effective defense mechanism against opposing ideas. It makes you reject the idea without thinking about it. This isn't new either, every ideology has to protect itself, and the easiest way is hate. Exceptionally few ideologies welcome criticism. Social media makes it much worse because the exchange of ideas is exponentially faster, and therefore the defense mechanism has to work proportionally harder. On top of that, social media platforms make money on ads, so they want to maximize engagement, and the easiest way to do it is making people feel threatened. So they are deliberately invoking the ideological defense mechanism. Traditional media does the same to some extent, but social media platforms have far far more data on their users, and they can deliver personalized content.
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I am so glad that you are telling about your incredible experiences at Tesla.
Tesla’s factory in Fremont gets a lot of smack for poor paint quality with drips, spots and fisheyes. They have interior pieces of trim that are not always installed correctly. They have hatches, trunk lids and taillights that can be subject to uneven gaps.
Last quarter I volunteered to help with customer deliveries at our local delivery center. Truck after truck of cars were being delivered, I am in contact with the detailer that installed my PPF, so I am not just talking out of the side of my mouth. I own a 2018 Dual Motor Model 3. It has some paint defects that I just learned to live with because I didn’t want my new car repainted and if I had refused it, the reorder would’ve been at the new prices.
I believe that the blue collar workers are rushed to get cars out, they don’t fix issues at the factory because they leave that up to the service centers to fix. Us volunteers were instructed not to point out any defects, because we were there to answer simple function questions.
Whose fault is it that things are not better? White collar, blue collar, Elon?
There is no union so we can’t blame their rules. I used to work at a union wholesale plumbing supply company and I didn’t dare touch anything in the warehouse and take work away from someone! It was us and them, separate and unequals.
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That was the most helpful vid for me Farzad, thank you ! 6 yrs ago, I overpushed my body by working 36 hours non-stop then got in my car and felt my heart made a big kick... I was driving at above 65 m/h on a highway when I feared a heart attack or fainting while driving, which would have caused a major acident; that was my first anxiety attack. Same as you while in bed, hearing my heart, feeling it wasn't beating normally, jumping awake multiple times/hours while trying to fall asleep cause suddenly feeling my heart was skipping a beat, even stopped taking "tomorrows" for granted but nowhere near "living life to the fullest". Doctors saying everything's fine each time I got tested. Sleep deprived in first years, anxiety attacks a couple times a year on highways... But so much similarity with your experience that I now feel reassured I can trust my heart is, indeed, really ok and stop thinking I may not see tomorrow or be alive in few months. Your vid may have put a definite end to my anxiety saga, soooo appreciated !
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I understand.
Elon took some time after PayPal and sprurge a little bit of his money before he felt the need to work on something meaningfull.
I can tell you thought that after a while it get boring. I have been in ’vacation’ for a few years, going to nice beachs, traveling, etc
After a while I felt soo bored and needed to build something. I am considering to go work for Tesla, it’s the only job that motivate me at the moment.
ps: if you want a crazy trip, go buy a sailboat in Florida, learn to sail and go sail to the Bahamas. 700+ island with beautiful beach, fish, dolphins, clear water. Its soo different than the US, and it’s only a daysail away from Florida.
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Oh man, i can relate to you and Farzad, tho what Farzad described was scarily close to my own experience. Didn't happen in a gym, but an ambulance was called because i really thought i would die of an heart attack. I've never worked out, but i was also a fit young man, been biking every day for way over 10 years (stopped doing that when the pandemic forced me into home office).
My panic attacks started somewhere in 2018, can't put a finger on it what caused it. My heart was racing exactly like what Farzad described. I also couldn't sleep with the sound of my heart pounding and i couldn't help but focusing on it. My girlfriend at that time was worried but couldn't help me out of course. I did go to a lot of doctors, made all sorts of check-ups, everytime the results were normal. But that did not calm me down at all. I was a nervous wreck. Ultimately leading to my relationship of 7 years breaking apart in 2019, which only worsened my situation. I felt all alone with my problems and fell into a depression.
Since then, i've already grown a lot and there are times where i am really happy. I bought a tesla, went on roadtrips through germany (where i live), saw places i've never seen before. Did go hiking, noticed how badly out of shape i am, but still enjoyed all of it. Panic attacks and anxiety never really left me tho.
Just recently, in december last year i did go to a check up. My apple watch kept telling me that my heart rate was on a declining trend. Just a small amount, but you can image that this was triggering my anxiety hard. The doctor was really nice and took me seriously, which definitely helped me trusting the results. He gave me the advice to not constantly check my heart rate and that's what i've been doing since and i am feeling much better. Its pretty crazy would your mind can do.
I am 27 now and not yet where i would wanna be, but i know i'll get there. Hearing your stories, knowing we share that, it does really help.
Farzad, your video came to me at the right time. Thank you!
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Brilliant job on all your videos. You are an example of why Tesla is what it is today.
Legacy OEM's cannot catch up because agility is not in their playbook.The layers of management necessary to go from idea to reality are in themselves an insurmountably barrier on a good day. I can remember "engineering change requests" sitting at a manager's desk for months, while parts were made to faulty specs, shipped, rejected then made again, just because of the glacial pace of thinking across said layers.
I worked in the auto industry in the US for 40 years - tier , 2 and 3 supplier - and I can tell you from experience they will never catch up.
You are right in saying that is has to be a new player, starting with a clean slate, just like Tesla did. Imagine the disruption of existing supply chains en economies of scale turned completely upside down should say, GM flip a switch and go full on electric. What will happen to O'Rileys, Napa, Pep Boys, just to name a few? How about fuel stations, refineries, oil pipelines, giant drilling platforms and the like?
I am surprised Elon has not been accused of sex crimes or some other horrendous malfeasance yet, since this is the oldest play in the book, to destroy those who go against the hydrocarbon boys and girls.
Left to his own devices, Elon and his team would dominate the global economy. I firmly believe this. No wonder the US government is doing what it can to slow him down. Shame on Warren and Biden.
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I think as autonomous vehicles increase as human driven vehicles decrease, so does the safety of being in a vehicle. I just watched a pickup truck take off into the opposing lane to pass a slow moving semi. This is a residential area on a street tractor/trailers are allowed due to businesses in the area. The pickup had an oncoming vehicle and so sped up to get ahead of the semi, ending up stopping the oncoming vehicle and the semi to avoid collision. Sort of an anecdotal example, but it just happened right down the street from me when I walked outside after watching this video. There is a 4 way stop intersection in the other direction. I have seen two accidents last year and know of about 6 other accidents at that same intersection I didn't actually see, but saw the aftermath. Very few, maybe 5% or less actually stop at that intersection. Another 5% do not even slow down at the stop signs. The rest approach at varying degrees of speed. I tend to roll through, but a few months ago I stopped completely because another vehicle crossing was not slowing down at all. A car behind me screeched to a stop and the driver began yelling at me as the crossing vehicle sped on through the intersection. I live in San Bernardino area in So. California. The irony is that someone would get pissed off because I actually stopped at a stop sign. He even said that because of M*** F**** like me, he's going to be late for an appointment and almost caused him to crash into me. I just went on my way as he passed me and cut me off almost clipping my front end and sped off. When the adrenaline kicks in, I find it hard to not go ahead and trade some knuckle sandwiches with someone like that. I just have to remind myself that when you see someone wallowing in the mud, you have the choice to not act like a pig and jump into the mud with that person.
I guess my point is that although there was some quirky incidents in your FSD drive. I doubt any of those incidents were actually less safe than so many incidents I've seen or even close calls I've experienced. I'm 68, and from my experience, I think FSD would help eliminate road rage, driver distractions, and poor driver habits. That alone would probably make FSD safer overall, even at the state it's in now. But, again, if all vehicles were autonomous. The transition from human to autonomous driving is going to be the most difficult part of the whole FSD program. I hope NSHTA can understand this and that the end game is going to mean far less accidents, injury and death.
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Elizabeth Warren has some valid points, but she's barking up the wrong tree. She's going after the wrong person. She's going after the MVP of Earth. It would make a little more sense if she was going after trust fund babies who haven't necessarily earned their wealth and life of opulence. Elon musk, however, is the quintessential American success story who started with nothing, worked his behind off day and night for three decades, and is still at it, and is adding a lot of value to humanity. He's not the one they should be going after. Why they are not smart enough to realize that is beyond me. She's right in that the system needs to change but going after Elon musk is not the way to fix it.
This is just my opinion but the tax code should fit on one piece of paper. Everybody pays whatever percent. I don't care what the percentage is as long as everybody pays the same. And, since people are corporations, corporations also pay the same amount of tax. 5%, 10%, 15%, I don't really care so long as we can say that everybody is paying the same.
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As we know, regarding efficiency Elon likes to point out that the best part is no part, the best process is no process, and so on. I am slightly irritated that until now, at least to my limited knowledge, he never mentioned that the best traffic is no traffic. With this I of course do not want to say that there should not be any traffic at all, just like Elon doesn't mean to say the Tesla vehicles should not be produced (but he already stated that FSD will make it unnecessary to produce insane numbers of cheap cars for everyone).
So, the point I want to make is, that as a matter of fact, througout the history of mankind, we humans always were using about the same amount of time per day for mobility, but troughout the process of progress and industialization we were using that time to travel farther and farther. In my opinion it would be a great achievment if we could reduce the average distances travelled by day simply by organizing better the workflow throughout the world.
This would of course also result in less time used for travelling, time freed up to do someting more enjoyable than hastingly driving to work, being stuck in a traffic jam, wrecking our nerves for enduring "stupid" or in fact really stupid other cardrivers (FSD won't solve tihis completely) and so on, which for instance could be slow transportation by bike or "by our legs", just for leisure and to fulfill our apparently irressitable wish to use a certain amount of time per day for moving ourselves from point A to point B.
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One must have "intimate knowledge" of one's task and a near unquenchable thirst for more knowledge in order to filter all the noise and concentrate on the signals coming to them on what I call a "state of flow". I worked in manufacturing in the US all my career (40+years) and Joe is on point when he doubts there will be anyone of Elon's caliber in the next 1K+ years, even accounting for all the tools available to the new generation of makers rising as we debate these topics. His mission is not driven by recognition/approval from anyone but himself. This type of mental drive feeds on itself, and it differs in principle from every other human drive that seeks refuge on the outside world for possible solutions. In Elon's mind, he has already found the possible solutions, but there exist no mechanisms to facilitate bringing them into the realm of a probability greater than zero.Yet.
Notice how he speaks about anything or relevance - to Tesla, the economy, politics etc. Like Joe, he struggles to find the right vocabulary even to express what is going on inside his brain. Bezos is buying multi-million dollar yachts and toys - nothing wrong with that, mind you- while Elon is thinking about how to make his cars think for themselves or how to conquer gravity in a way that will allow his spaceships to lift a whole martian habitat in one shot, because he has already seen the future of humanity on Earth and he is feverishly working on a fall back position, while everyone else is postulating about when to meet to discuss how to present the downfall of humanity in ways that will make them the most profit.The reason Tesla will never have any real competition, and the reason is simple, IMHO...As in the Tao, "my enemy does not exist".
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Raw Ginger, Ginkgo Biloba, Mind Mushrooms (Lions Mane, Chaga, Ashwaganda, etc.) other herbs, Mindful/Walking/Siting Meditation (2 great books: 💡“No Mud, No Lotus” and “Peace is Every Step”💡) and a Whole-foods-plant-based lifestyle (I’m personally Vegan for the animals, but my health is, of course, also important) cleared up my vertigo completely and has done wonders for my anxiety (I’m now known for my “calmness”). Big pharma’s chemicals and all the processed/unnatural/refined-sugar and oils/dead “foods” we eat as well as the negativity we consume on the daily (News media, social media, low vibrational music, etc.) are some of the main contributors to our anxiety as an individual and as a society. My advice to all: better to be Preventative than to “medicate a now existing ailment”. Blessings on all of your journeys to live a better Life🙏🏾😄
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Something you "understand naturally" is something you don't understand at all. It's just something you are drawn to do by your body, usually through either experience or instinct, that matches a need in one way or another. To actually understand something, you have to understand it, kind of, "out of your body".
You understand naturally a fist in your face as it hurts, somebody did this to you, you need to stop it fast and such. But you actually understand it when you know the physics of it, the energy, how the muscle bends, the psychology of the guy hit you, etc. To actually understand anything properly, you need to have proper words for it that don't involve your own feelings. Which in many cases we can't do . Elon calls this "first principles". Although I'm not sure he ever tried to apply that to philosophy.
"What is the purpose of humanity" is another sneaky and badly understood idea. Purpose implies a least one will with a project. Without that, it makes no sense. So, unless the question could be rephrased as "what should we purpose ourselves for to best serve ourselves", you'd better ask "what is the project for humanity" and more importantly "whose project is it". Sadly, many tried, but no one came with a definitive answer to "who" obvious enough that it makes sense to everyone.
Justice is another very gutsy thing which, when you decompose it well enough, makes no sense. The definition of "justice" is just completely lacking. If you ask yourself the question, you will only find words to describe it that is equally lacking like "fair" or "good". An example: you are two people with a box of chocolate that were offered to you both. You equally want the last one, had the same number of chocolates. What do you do? Cut it in half? Ok, who should do that work, is it fair that one should do it rather than the other one? At this stage we usually just make the sacrifice because it's not that meaningful, but for the sake of the precision, who should do it? Should we each make half the cut? Well, then, that organization is cost more than the chocolate is worth, is it still just?… What about the loss of the crumbs that can't be eaten any more…
Why doesn't justice makes any sense, and more generally "good"? Because it's related to individuals and because we can't assess the complete effects of doing anything. And what's "good" for a person is not always good for another. Or maybe for the society or for mankind or just our descendants or whoever. We literally can't know how good anything is. That is the cause of most conflict. Good can't be known, only felt.
Last, are we free willed or is everything just predetermined: This one is very hard on me. Why should it be one and not the other? "Predetermined" need to be precise. Does it mean that someone decided it beforehand or that it is the only possible result of a computation? I don't know of any other possibility.
If it is the second (computed), then, the computation is changed because of the exercise of our will, so it's both predetermined and determined by our will and we have free will. If it's the first (decided), then our will emerged in such a way that it created what was needed for it to happen. We were free to choose, but chosen or created because we would chose what we would.
If everything is not predetermined at all, then, maybe we should rethink the concept of science, because it is entirely based on causality, which implies that only one story line of results can emerge from any state of the universe. Well, and there is quantum physics but this post is lengthy enough and I'm not sure I like what they say about it, although I don't understand half of it.
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Great presentation. Like and new sub. TSLA bull I have 2 questions: Excluding FSD, robotaxi (many delayed gov approvals), Megapack, Bot, etc., and only automotive mfr and sales, what do think the stock is worth today and in 2030? 2nd question is, as their bots get more sophisticated and replace factory workers, don't you think there will be some backlash, i.e. unionize, strikes, etc,?
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Chuckles for the kids talk ...if you think Tesla was tough with 12 hour shifts...just wait until you're on call, 24/7, forever, and the one place you used to use to get away from it all, your house, becomes your defacto place of work. 😬 Just kidding, kind of. Parenting is all sorts of things: the most ______. Challenging, rewarding, fulfilling, stressful, etc. Like many things, it is mostly what you make it, with some (okay, a lot) unexpected things along the way.
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I think you're making alot of sense in this vid. One of the things that is currently "hanging up" people around Bots is -- exactly WHAT will or can be done with robots. Now of course, the sky's the limit in principle, but your discussion relating bot's to mining specifically is very interesting to me. On a related topic, an addendum related to the battery and raw materials issue is the battery RE-CYCLING issue. Here, tremendous advances must be made, because as you know, almost all the materials in a battery can be re-used, which will hugely reduce the need for extracting new materials, in the long run. Here, "Redwood Materials" led by ex-Tesla co-founder Mr. Straubel is extremely exciting to me, and could be the catalyst for this new industry. And wow, your speculation on the future use of Starship (ala SpaceX) is super fascinating. It's absolutely no coincidence that Mr. Musk being the linchpin in EACH of these endeavors is like watching destiny unfold before our eyes. I do hope that our humanity will survive long enough to see these undertakings realized. You're a good thinker .... thanks for this post and keep up the good work!
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1:34:50 Re: Leadership Qualities. I’ve been fortunate to have mostly worked under the ideal leader types that you describe, but hoofa! the “losers” that “make it” purely based on their ability (mostly through FUD) to create the illusion (that everyone close to them, except their “kin” can see straight through) that they are the (self-convinced) Prima Donna gift to the world, & those who placed them, by all means must be run away from, unless, by emulation, your consequential failures allow them to show how much better & necessary they are, where from you must likewise pass the blame or be replaced by those who will do likewise!
2:21:00 Re: FSD Testers. What is needed isn’t merely thousands of 99-100% Safe-rated “grannies” who are afraid to do anything stressful, but a handful of Scott Crossfield-like Alpha testers who are strictly disciplined, highly competent in mechanical & software engineering interface development, able to “see” & safely push “systems envelops” up to & beyond prescribed thresholds, & are able to consistently & accurately document their observations & provide actionable recommendations.
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I am at minute 23, listen to your question and feel the need to answer: The deal is: nobody is investing into Tesla in any other time than when they issue shares. 99,9% of the time you as an "investor" bet against other investors and your goal is to rip other players of their money. This is your goal. So now you need to find the opportunity to do so. You need to find the spot where enough people want to bet again you. That is the the first step. There are a lot of companies out there - no bother - you need to get the money from the players, so you need to where the players are. Second step: You will get played by the big ones, banks, credit institutions, groups, so get that risk. You need to understand that risk that other plays and you set the price and other big players are setting the price to get you into the game so that they can pull out to get your money and you are stuck in the game while they are counting their profit. So, once understood, you need to do the same: Get into the game with a stock which will have other plays run to, let them increase the price in a bidding war and then get out while they are still under the illusion that this will go on for ever. And then, find a new game, where players want to play.
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The speed & extent of possible future displacement leaves me contemplating what will happen to those displaced. Unlike earlier disruptions of automation, etc. this time it seems possible that the extent & speed of the displacement will be many times that of anything experienced to date. The disruption in domestic (US & others) manufacturing jobs that were "shipped" to China, etc. was/is substantial. Those displaced manufacturing jobs were in the aggregate not replaced by comparable jobs. Incomes dropped, individuals, families, communities were disrupted (some to the point of devastation). I have seen this first hand. This time some of the discussion centers around robots replacing "front line" jobs. Many of these are low-skill, etc. For a manufacturing worker to lose their job and fall back onto a less skilled, lower-paying job(s) is bad. But low-skilled workers, in the aggregate, who lose their jobs to automation can't fall back on a low-skill job...as the total number of those jobs will, presumably, be shrinking. The potential speed & extent of disruption and displacement will need to be addressed. Thank you for including this in your discussion.
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I good discussion and effort, but I didn't notice anything accounting for efficiency of the new tech. I think there has to be, and will be, an efficiency benefit beyond freeing up manual labour to focus on more demanding tasks.
Personally, I think the increased efficiency will outstrip the job creation projection and that upon arrival current jobs will have reached a peak for manual labour. Tesla bots will navigate through their environment unlike any other robot before it. In this sense it will learn to do tasks that other robots can do, and given it's form factor, can operate those that are beyond it's own physical limitations. Assuming AGI isn't far behind, and isn't capped, new jobs will be created, of which most of these will bep transfered to those currently employed. I'm not sure what the generation following will do in terms of entering the workforce aside from coming up with new jobs for bots. Things that may disrupt this path, which Elon has already communicated, is increased birth rate and becoming multiplanetary as a species. Interesting times.
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My (don’t get me wrong, I am no prophet) ONE THING that I can predict with total confidence about Full Level-Five Self-Driving is that our man in front, yes, Elon, is never going to quit. He will drive that horse until it is absolutely real a million times over or he will be riding that big Starship in the sky to the next plane altogether. And, so will I, so will I. What a gift for the rest of us because even then, even while it is happening, the rest of the perceiving market is going to be stuck in the mud with the doubters until that bulb goes on in their heads, signaling the arrival of that whole-new reality: We are witnessing a revolution, for real, in both transportation and energy, one occupied and dominated by a single company. BTW, do you think that the CyberTruck is being held back until it can be delivered with proven FSD, (strategically)?
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I’m a little confused, did you leave because you want to retire early and focus on your hobbies, do a little traveling or did you leave because you have an idea for a business that might change the world? Personally (and I’m 65 and recently retired, still actually serve as an advisor a few hours a week) I don’t understand the FIRE movement, probably because I always loved what I was doing. Like yourself I started out in low tech and moved to high tech (in my mid 20’s in my case) and loved the amazing people and the energy that naturally comes out of innovative (it’s not limited to Tesla or Elon Musk). Retirement is hard even at my age, it’s a learned skill if done well, at your age and with your obvious energy it would seem impossible. We leave jobs for two basic reasons either we’re running away from something or we’re running to something. From your comments I can’t really tell which. Starting a band, playing more guitar or traveling don’t sound like nearly enough. I fear you may have run away from what might have been the most fulfilling work you’ll ever do, I hope I’m wrong but the greatest accomplishments of my career always aligned with doing what others thought couldn’t be done, it was hard but worth the effort. BTW, the greatest accomplishments of my life are our 33 years (so far) of marriage and raising 3 amazing daughters. We must never loose perspective. Good luck in wherever life takes you, I just think you should have a concrete plan.
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On Creativity (48:00) -- we will be able to make AI creative, imaginative. What we refer to as imagination is simply the ability to internally model aspects of reality and apply "what if" scenarios to it. We see this already in any kind of planning AI. What Tesla's FSD does in planning routes while taking into account the possible movements (and even intentions) of other cars and pedestrians is a rudimentary form of "imagination". Then there is creativity: creativity is essentially a random process constrained by a selection procedure. My choice of words there is deliberately evocative of evolution, an incredibly creative process: random mutation combined with natural selection. Human (and therefore AI) creativity is a process of essentially random ideas that are paired down by a variety of selection criterion, including whether the idea comports with our models of reality and how the idea affects us emotionally. Most of the random ideas occur and are eliminated subconsciously in a process not unlike evolution: random variation on ideas combined with a "natrual selection" process--how well does that idea stand up to tests of emotional effect, realism, practicality, your inner critic. Everybody's inner critic is different, and some people have a much more forgiving inner critic, which is why some people seem so much more creative than others, but boy do many of their ideas seem whack. But yeah, combine the kind of deep learning for modelling of reality with some neurons that generate random input to the system, and you have the makings of "creativity".
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Many areas of construction will be automated in other ways - large scale manufacturing and prefabs, extrusions, 3d printing, self-erecting structures. However, in the case of the bot, they will be useful at first on teams if their language capabilities are sufficient. "Go move that lumber", "paint this wall from here to here to here, two coats", "clean up this shit", etc. But my experience is more high end custom. For mass production of homes and large structures, I can see them having more straightforward repetitive roles. Regardless, they will require training, which I suspect will begin in other fields such as housework, agricultural picking and packing, food and service as you said, trucking (freight loading and unloading), street cleaning, trash removal, cooking, bartending, and beyond. What's really exciting is to imagine all the use cases getting discovered, and individuals and companies training armies of the bots to do great things!
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Food - I’d like to see them manufacture food from CO2, water, minerals with the use of energy from solar panels and more efficiently simulate photosynthesis. In fact there is already a company starting with this - Air Protein.
Housing - I’m very excited about this. I’d personally buy something like Casita. Tesla garage, solar roof, HVAC, solar power plant + power pack + private supercharger, Starlink on the roof :)
Crypto - yeah, Tesla will get eventually involved. Decentralized stock exchange (I’d love to invest directly into Tesla without a broker).
Decentralized media - streaming platform (I’m concerned about YT censorship), social media.
Gene editing - Elon usually eventually does what he talks about. Human DNA modification would have a huge impact and I’m particularly interested in what it would reveal about Epigenetics.
Vaccine manufacturing - you input virus mRNA, as Elon says a bunch of things happen :) and you get your vaccine.
I could go on & on…
P.S. I’m listening just to educational audio books, so I'm clueless about the song :) I will have to educate myself in this area.
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Try and do back and forth interviews with:
Rob Mauer (Tesla Daily), Sandy Monro and Cory Steuben (Munro and Associates), Galileo Russell (Hyperchange), Zac and Jesse Cataldo (Now You Know), Steven Mark Ryan (Solving The Money Problem) , Ryan McCaffrey (Ride The Lightning), Alex Potter (Piper Sandler Analyst), Pierre Ferragu (New Dtreet Research), Alex Guberman (E for Electric), Doug DeMuro (Vehicle tester/analyst), Markus House (YouTube space informer), Sawyer Merritt (Tesla information source and investor), Jordan Giesige (The Limiting Factor), Gene Munster (Loup Investments), Omar Qazi (Tesla investor, enthusiast), Rich Rebuilds (YouTube Channel), and Tony Seba (Futurist?)
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■■■■■■■
... wow ...WOW! ...SO many thoughts, considerations, affirmations toward personal realizations, as I listen to these guys! Bottom line... people have different personality types, different levels of viewing life, different aspirations, different definitions of every aspect of life, including "success"... some will do, some won't. Live, learn, and grow. That's a natural aspect of our existence itself! In fact, my consideration that this whole deal is based on an ultimate "fractal model" seems to be validated more and more in my life's experience and observation. That aspect is even seen in discussions about "growth", "orders of magnitude", etc. Man... how motivational, Mr. Farzad!! You're onto something here. Something huge. Huge because it's the natural order of reality. I'd LOVE having a personal community to discuss these things, with like-minded folks who "get it"! I'm going to keep keeping on. I have my personal level of "influence" in the world (as a result of my working/playing for (90's) country music stars, seeing how folks "see me" as someone bigger than life, JUST because of what I (am BLESSED to get to) do! I also realize there's HUGE potential there, both FOR others as well as personally. This video is affirming that I need to take recent ideas by the horn, and JUST GO FOR IT. That's the initial, primarily needed catalyst! If you have a (considered) idea... go for it! You won't succeed if you don't! Blessings and much success to everyone! And be loving people all along the way!! Without THAT, you're not human, and it's all in vain! 💞
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Hi Farzad,
Is it possible that you are overthinking this? What if Elon thinks that they might reach 23 Million units sold in 2030, but he publicly says 20 M, to be conservative. In that many years, what is the chance that Tesla has one bad year? In one year they have trouble getting enough raw materials, or enough engineers, or getting government permits, or face a huge lawsuit, or enough Nickel for stainless steel, or SOMETHING.
When guessing about what will happen in the future, being a bit conservative seems like a good idea to me.
Warm regards, Rick.
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Yay, be cozy with the microphone. Easy on the eyes, …just listening.
~
China. Is going to fill the gap, the gap created by an 80% fail.
That’s how they roll.
That failure does look ominously likely. VW included.
Once an ICE man always an ICE man, it appears; they can’t let go fast enough because they don’t want to…
I can see a how Elon’s name would get demonized over it, the ill-effect side of disruption.
But I also think he is thinking ahead of it all, the whole game.
Thank goodness we have him, a guy governed by a model of sustainability.
He will do his part, I believe, to help the competition fill demand; I wish I were hearing about FSD licensing happening right now; but, no, right now is not happening for the traditional players like F and GM. They are even bragging about this years production of ICE, next year’s…But, stop. Look. What a crazy-good opportunity for the retail investor. The correct perception is gold. And now, …let’s listen to some podcasts why not.
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I love your perspective on politic and society.
I can feel some hint of Peterson, he made me realise how corrupt the media and our culture is at this point.
I think that what work to get rid of corruption is death, that is why most company don’t last very long. They start and grow because they solve a problem, but they get bureaucratic, corrupt, they use the government and regulation to shut down competition. They grow more and more broken until a new technology appear and disrupt them.
For our government, we are good at adding regulations, layers of bureaucratie, new taxes, but very bad at removing thoses that don’t make sense.
Like Elon said, the government is a corporation at the limit.
Here in Quebec, there is so much regulations and taxations I don’t think we can build 10% of what we did in the 60’s and 70’s anymore. A bit like the US too, they went to the moon in the 60’s and then their capabilities have gone down for the last 50 years.
On a positive note, I discovered the integral theory that show our problems in a transitory nature, a stepping stone to the next level.
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Farzad -- I recently left a job that I thought/assumed would be a dream job going into it but ended up being really not that great. The job wasn't "hard" or "miserable" compared to previous jobs I'd had, but it was a big let down in terms of the impact I thought I would be making in the position, and over time I became really unhappy. I went through a whole roller coaster of emotions--doubt, denial, uncertainty, guilt, etc. By the end there I was experiencing doubts about whether or not I had even chosen the right field, if I needed to do a complete reinvention after leaving. That was the level of burnout I was feeling, and I certainly related to a lot of the things you talked about in this video. Anyways, after taking a break for a few weeks, I have an interview with a new farming outfit today, and feeling more reassured about the work.
Anyways, keep up the good work. I love your content because you are so good at putting into words many of the things that I'm thinking. It was really cool meeting you this weekend. I hope you and Cindy are enjoying the rest of your time in California. Take the scenic routes, those less traveled mountain and desert roads you won't regret it.
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🤯... This process enriches content and reduces time. I often run out of time trying to keep up with your and several other creators' videos. Now you can create a streamlined content conveyance mechanism such that everyone can get up to speed more quickly with key points and info and then have more time to enjoy, say a live stream covering a Tesla, SpaceX event., etc. While I'm not massively keen on AI trying to be human, I do like the idea of bolstering the quality of valuable insights for the benefit of the wider public. I also like Elon's pauses, if you follow me, because authenticity is often conveyed as much in the silence between sounds as the sounds themselves. A person can easily become a 'clanging gong'; i.e. sometimes less is more. Also, people have to simply think for themselves, draw their own conclusions and take decisions for themselves before they can connect to wider like-minded groups. So while not wanting to spoon-feed or steer or herd group mentality as seems the risk in main stream media, how could this option succinctly involve the audience, and I don't mean with just likes, polls, comments, etc. but perhaps in encouraging the individual to recognise their own ability to influence the wider 'town-hall' conversation? That each voice counts, builds a strong constitution. We must do this thing, usher in this new world together, as a collective, not just a few people shouldering the load and taking abuse off the crowd. My two cents for now..
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Sounds great but first, it's not going to be anywhere nearly as fast as you are projecting to design and produce the bots. Materials supply will be a major issue all by itself. And the batteries needed will take design time and factories will have to be set up. And the chips, actuators, and software have to be designed, tested, built, and training time comes into play for the jobs they will do. So it will be a major change but slow in coming. And second you haven't addressed what happens to the people who don't now have jobs. The socal implications and what we do with those people now unemployed are not easy to handle. Do you really think that lower wage workers will just stand by as they are fired while the well paid get to keep working? And these folks would have to be paid some how and that's going to be a political nightmare to resolve. It would put the medical insurance, retirement funding, and cost of living for the replaced workers who couldn't find work on to society to pay while the companies profit by having robots doing the work for less. So in the end these now non working people will need as much money coming in as they had when they were working and the companies have the cost of the robots and their maintenance to pay for. So the total cost for the job done is higher than when workers did the work. You still have to pay the people so they can survive and you pay for the robots as well . So you are paying twice, once to support the people, and then again to build and maintain the robots. This is a two sided problem as you don't just put the robots to work and not have to support the people they replace. Of course for a while the workers replaced can find other work but that's only till enough robots are built to fill jobs till all the people fired can't find work.
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Great content, and really enjoy the analysis angle you are taking here. I have a few points to add, and let me say, I think you already know all of this and guessing you are doing a typical hedging approach, which is always wise:
1) Legacy auto is losing significantly more on EV's today than ICE cars. This will decrease over time, but would require them to hit similar scales (wrights law) to today to get back to parody.
2) I think you underestimate the S curve here because 50% in 28 would assume a less step and faster flattening curve than we are seeing, or as predicted by many experts. My own hedging number is 70% in 28 where it does start to flatten. I go with the Tony Seba approach to be frank.
3) GM and Ford both rely too heavily on marketing to sell a car. The cost is baked into your data, but I think the failure of this approach (Tesla disrupting) will accelerate things. It will be less effective over time thanks to the internet where people can do their own research. My opinion.
4) Same as above but with dealerships, parts, service, etc. falling off with volume drops actually decreasing profits further and faster.
5) Interest rates: whereas it isn't set in stone how much rates will rise, nor how long, any rise in rates will come off that bottom line respectively, and I do expect debt to go up year over year.
I have been eyeing GM puts lately, but with market conditions, they have gotten a bit pricy. If we have a solid rally in Q2, I will probably take the plunge.
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Yes, it is possible. Most importantly it is a personal mindset, so every human is capable of it. And then there is a strong pursuit in german culture that resembles some of Joe's thoughts on an utopian future and when he related to the speed of inovation during/after WW2. Fairness, Truth, Happiness, the pursuit of "Bildung". "Bildung is seen as a process wherein an individual's spiritual and cultural sensibilities as well as life, personal and social skills are in process of continual expansion and growth. Bildung is seen as a way to become more free due to higher self-reflection." (wikipedia) We all know the engineering side of german things but the underlying culture of why they are so good in figuring out technical problems is often forgotten. Leading the world in Solar, strictest rules about Recycling anywhere, highest patent count in Europe, ... I think the Tesla story will fit very well into Germany, they will create their own version of it, same as the Chinese have done with Shanghai.
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Are you open to a little feedback about your YouTube podcast?
Every time I hear someone say that they “to be honest”, or they “have to be completely honest”, or that they “can’t tell a lie”, or, “To be truthful”, I have to wonder why they are alerting me to it. Does this mean they typically lie? Why are they prefacing what they have to say with a comment that calls into question their integrity?
I have noticed that you use these kinds of expressions quite often. It’s distracting and it diminishes your authority. I would suggest consciously swapping out phrases like “to be frank”, “to be clear “, and “let’s face it,”. I think addressing this openly would be helpful.
On the other hand, I very much appreciate how careful you are to distinguish your opinion from fact. That causes me to trust you. I just became a subscriber and will continue cheering you on because I think you bring a unique perspective to the Tesla community. I just wanted to flag this verbal take you have, and to encourage you to do better.
Looking forward to more content from you.
Best,
CRAIG
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