Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "Russian Economic Game Ends" video.

  1. Interesting, but I think a little deeper analysis would have to be done. For one thing, we see all this great stuff being done, mostly by Ukraine, with drones. On the other hand, we see on both sides the need for more and more infantry and mechanized formations. Drones will not take over. The US has used drones for over two decades now. There are more effective weapons, like artillery. There are two things coming on the horizon. One is F-16s. The other is the permission for Ukraine to attack military targets in neighboring areas of Russia. Ukraine has been doing a stellar job with what they have, but they are not nearly up to NATO standards. Just a simple example is instructive. Their southern counteroffensive went nowhere because of the minefields and trench lines the Russians had installed. Take a similar example in the Gulf War, where Iraq had done something similar. The US used air power to suppress the Iraqis near this line so that paths through the minefields could be opened. Whenever you do this, you are vulnerable. This allowed major armored formations to move through and attack. In Ukraine the situation is the same, but the Ukrainians do not have capability to suppress Russian artillery or airpower to clear and path through the Russian fortifications. With F-16s and more mine clearing equipment they could easily do this. In the recent offensive in the north, in the Kharkiv region, the Russians were able to amass forces without hindrance. If Ukraine were able to attack those concentrations, then they would never have been able to launch the attacks. A change in policy, which seems to be coming, will allow Ukraine to defend itself and degrade Russian combat power even faster. I have also said many times that the EU and UK should be able to handle all this themselves. Their economy is ten times as large as Russia's and their population is three times as large. I am not saying the US shouldn't be heavily involved, but Europe should be able to handle this on their own. They relied too heavily on the US for their security and now they pay the price. Some European countries keep acting like they can separate themselves from US policy. That is just foolish. The cost for them to catch up is staggering.
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  2. Good video and a good application of game theory. My only disagreement is with the prognosis for Russia once the current regime falls. I see a much bleaker picture. The issue is with the society, not individuals. I am willing to guess that you are familiar with Gogol. Have you read "Dead Souls"? It was written in the middle of the 19th century, but it accurately describes Russian society today. We see Russian and Chinese individuals who come to the west becoming ardent supporters of western values. We do not see this in Russia or China. I fully expect both countries to break into pieces, most probably run by warlords. This is actually the norm for China throughout its history. Russia, like China, has become so riddled by corruption, at all levels of society, that a rules-based liberal democracy is not a very likely outcome. They already had one chance and blew it. Why should anything be different today? Heck, the only way the Russian landmass has been kept together from imperial times through Soviet times through the current kleptocracy is by strong and repressive cental power. If you look at the examples of Germany and Japan after WWII, you will see that their current liberal democratic systems were imposed. Who is going to do that in Russia?
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