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Louis Giokas
China Observer
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Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "Worse Than Off-Season! No Orders, No Money, China’s Manufacturing Is Doomed" video.
In terms of the impact outside of China from the property crisis, you and many other commentators are exaggerating the situation. The Chinese financial system is NOT integrated with the rest of the world. The bond holdings of foreign investment firms you quote are, if you would check, a small percentage of their overall holdings. The whole industrial chain associated with property development is located within China. The only ones who will suffer are some raw material providers. While this may have some short-term impact, the thing about raw materials is that they can stay in place. The long-term impact will not be substantial. In addition, those materials will be directed elsewhere as activity in other regions picks up. Another thing to note about the impact of the slowing of the Chinese economy is that it is not countries, but companies that experience these issues. Companies will each adjust their strategies and goals accordingly. For example, you quote Nissan's CEO. On the other hand, I have seen and read that many car companies which have experienced downturns in China have simultaneously experienced expansions in other markets. In addition, most companies doing business in China are working with local partners and do not own a majority of their production capacity in China. Many other companies work through contractors and own no fixed assets in China. China has really set itself up for a much easier decoupling than many think will happen.
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