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Louis Giokas
China Observer
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Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "130 million apartment units unoccupied u0026 more to come with the property tax | unfinished buildings" video.
The reason people in China put most of their investment into property is that they do not understand equity markets. Property they understand. Stock markets they do not. This is similar to Russia after the breakup of the Soviet Union. People were given shares in the companies they worked for. They had no understanding of what this meant, or how the markets in these equities worked. Then, people who did swooped in and bought the shares for a very low price. These were generally highly educated people who understood the situation. These became the oligarchs. China, being a formerly communist country, is in the same boat. The people have no idea of how markets work. They all rushed into property because the sort of understood that. The property sector in China is much larger than in the developed world. Now it is crashing and everyone will be dragged down. Even in stock market crashes n the West, people who kept their head recovered fully and prospered. I know, I have seen a number of these.
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I remember see George W. Bush being interviewed for a Google talk. He stated that he always asked foreign leaders, when meeting them for the first time, what is the number one thing that keeps you up at night. When he asked this of Hu Jintao the response was finding jobs for 60M people per year. In other words, economic growth. At 4.9%, the Chinese cannot find jobs for the people they need to pull up in the economy. They still have 600M people in poverty. And, don't forget, this growth is from the depths of the Kung Flu contraction.
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How can there be a class differential in a communist country like China? This is not communism. This is not capitalism. It is an aberration that cannot survive. The sooner they get rid of Xi and go full capitalist, the better. On the other hand, a financial and macroeconomic advisor I know hopes Xi will be reelected so that he can thoroughly screw China up and stop them from becoming a real competitor.
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