Louis Giokas
China Observer
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Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "Chinese Homebuyer’s 20-Year Savings Wasted as House Sells for Half Price, Stuck in Debt to the Bank" video.
The biggest issue in China is that the ratio of home price to income is very high. It is much higher than in the US. That people thought this was a viable option says a lot about the Chinese system. The people were fooled into thinking that home prices would always go up. Perhaps over a very long period of time, but the rate of return is generally not going to be as high as other investments, at least in a real market. I have a financial advisor who studies all this stuff, and he has looked at it over long periods of time. As an investment, property is not the best. Meaning that putting all your, and your family's, savings into property is risky and not likely to be optimal.
For one thing, property is generally not liquid, as people in China are finding out. There are times when a house can be sold quickly for a good price and others when it cannot. If you try to sell into a situation like the later, you are going to suffer. I have seen this up close. When I first moved to where I am now, from the east coast of the US to the Midwest, there was a recession just starting. Lots of people lost their jobs and ended up moving. I looked at 200 homes in the city I now live in. At least half were empty. Fortunately, we had gotten a good price for the house we sold and were able to upgrade for a modest price. In the house I am in now, I have seen the value go up, down and back up. It never came down below what I paid for it but the difference between the peak and trough was on the order of 35%. It is now back at the peak.
What I am trying to convey is that markets go up and down, and the Chinese people don't seem to understand this. They overextend on housing, and I get the impression from various sources that it is a prestige thing. People in the US have been known to do that as well, but never to the extent that they do in China. They also often "pay the price".
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