Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "China’s EVs Are Shockingly Bad: Priced at $80,000 and Still Prone to Spontaneous Combustion" video.

The repair shop segment is interesting. I did analysis a few years ago for an engineering publication comparing EVs to ICEs. The purchase cost difference between the two types made the EV still more expensive with gasoline at $4 per gallon. The battery replacement issue and quality issues were not even a factor. Add the cost of battery repair or replacement, and the EV is not a viable option. Compare refueling an ICE with charging an EV, and the ICE comes out even better. Also, consider that with an ICE, if I run out of fuel, I can carry enough fuel, if I have to, in a simple can, to go 25 miles or more. Try that in an EV. I am pretty sure that spontaneous combustion is not an issue as well.
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The subsidy investigation is nothing unusual. The EU and US have both had investigations of each other's practices in various segments of the economy and in some cases imposed punitive tariffs. In most cases I can think of, there was not a concerted effort on the part of the government to take over a segment, but issues with policy that favored an industrial segment.
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@Ukie88 Yes, quality was not an issue in these situations.
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@MrMannyhw I don't know why you would say that. When I did the analysis I mentioned, I found vehicles with almost the same dimensions (interior room, cargo space, etc.).
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@MrMannyhw Leasing may be a good idea, but don't forget that a lease takes into account the residual value of the vehicle at the end of the lease. I don't know enough about the current market to determine if the pending battery replacement cost is going to drive those lease rates higher.
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@pootispiker2866 You really have no idea of what you are talking about, do you? Everything about ICEs and EVs require massive amounts of infrastructure to operate. What about the electricity infrastructure? You are correct on the short trip situation. My lawyer (and friend) recently got a hybrid with a thirty-mile electric range. That seems the perfect solution. On the other hand, I have not seen, in modern ICEs, where the warming up process is a big deal. This was true of older, more primitive vehicles (I am old enough to have had some), but I have never experienced that as a problem with newer cars (say from the late 1980s on). On the other hand, take an EV on a long trip, especially to somewhere where there is not a lot of charging infrastructure.
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@pootispiker2866 On the warming up issue, I have actually had vehicles where the manual explicitly stated that warming up was not necessary, or a good thing. As for your example of a long trip, that is because you live on the East Coast (which is where I am from). In the Midwest or West that trip in the Appalachians would be a nothing. It is not unusual to go well over that 200 miles one way and have to refuel at least once. Get with the program. As for hauling 200 pounds of "extra engine" that is the clue that you have no idea what you are talking about. For one thing, the electric motor is not weightless. For another, have you considered the weight of the battery? That is often 750 to 1000 pounds. A gallon of gasoline weighs about six pounds. So, a full tank of gasoline (20 gallons) weighs 120 pounds. At 25 mpg (medium size SUV) that gives 500 miles of range. An electric motor weighs about 70 pounds. So, structure aside, your 200 pound motor with 120 pounds of fuel, or 320 pounds, give over two and a half times the range of your 1000 pounds of battery plus the 70 pounds or so of motor. By the way, the hybrid I mentioned was a larger BMW SUV, not a Leaf. You are the one who needs to get with the times.
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@redbaron6805 Well, you are welcome to your opinion. I still stand by what I said. Gasoline is actually cheaper than the rate I used back then. The price difference in the vehicles is not significantly different. What you assume is that there is constant progress in, say, fuel consumption, for example. I was around for the oil shocks in the 1970s. Gasoline tripled in price. A standard large sedan got 10 mpg or so. Then standard passenger vehicles were reengineered to get up to the 25 mpg range (city driving). That was 30 years ago or so. I was recently looking at the current equivalent model of the vehicle I own. The fuel consumption is the about the same. That is over a period of about eight years. The point is that the basic parameters do not change quickly.
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@redbaron6805 Talking about what could be done for generation is an old problem. I tend to agree with you on that. The problem is that it takes a lot of time and money to make the change. All of that money comes from the consumers. So, that increases the cost of electricity, which increases the cost of running the EV. Just a note about the cost. The best measure when comparing vehicles of different types is cost per mile, not miles per gallon, of course. Information I saw out of the UK claimed that the cost per mile of EVs and ICEs is about the same. This is primarily due to the high price of electricity driven a lot by the high cost of natural gas. So, until we get nuclear fusion going (which has been a decade away for decades), the picture will not be bright for EVs. Along those lines, since we have started this conversation, the market has come down on my side, for exactly the reasons I talked about. The growth of EVs is slowing. Plug in hybrids with a limited pure electric range are doing well. If you don't want to listen to me, then listen to Elon.
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@aperitifs Thanks.
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@redbaron6805 Wrong! What you totally miss is the massive infrastructure and generation buildout that is required. EVs use energy just like ICEs. Only now that has to come from the electric grid. You need to get educated on how the electric grid works and how it is paid for. Especially when you consider "green" energy which is typically not collocated with population centers.
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@redbaron6805 Well, have it your way. Even Musk is showing concern. Much of the growth has been in China, and we have seen how that market is manipulated and distorted by government subsidies. The growth rate is slowing. That is a massive concern. Overall penetration in the market is still small. If EV's were going to replace ICEs then that growth rate has to continue to increase. There is an article in the WSJ today talking about Toyota including an interview with their retired chairman Toyoda. In the article they point out that they have a week's worth of Prius hybrids in stock and two months worth of the EVs. You should really read the article. THE MARKET HAS SPOKEN! As for the infrastructure, you are really not very well versed in economics are you. That oil and gas infrastructure represents massive amounts of sunk cost built up over a century. You are going to have to spend similar amounts in a much shorter time frame. What you are assuming is something like if we build it, they will come. Look at the worldwide subsidies required for EV charging stations. They are building it, but at a much slower pace than is necessary.
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@redbaron6805 My friend, I don't know if you have access to the WSJ, but there were two articles, one yesterday and one today, concerning GM and Ford. The news on EVs is not good and comports with what I have been saying.
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