Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. In general, I agree with you. One nuance in Israel is that they do not have a written constitution comparable to the US (or much of Europe). That being the case, it is not always clear what standard the courts in Israel are adhering to. They are thus seen as political as well. From what I have heard and read, there is actually widespread recognition that some sort of reform is needed in Israel. It seems that it is just not what was proposed.
    212
  2. Your pronouncements on China have been spot on. I follow a number of news and analysis sources on China, and it is like watching your predictions come true in real-time. It is at least the beginning of the end, but I think it might be more advanced. There is nothing that works in China, and no way to fix it in the current system.
    85
  3. Not only is Cuba an agricultural society, but it is a primitive one. My father-in-law was in Cuba when Castro died. He even brought me back some cigars including a Cohiba that was the type that Castro himself smoked. He also brought back some Monte Christos in a wooden box embossed with a likeness of Che Guevara as well as a newspaper with the announcement of Castro's death. For old anti-communists like us it was quite amusing. But I digress. The reason I mention my father-in-law's trip was that he took tours of the countryside. His wife is from a farm in the Midwest. Her father started out with 40 acres, a mule and a plow in the opening decades of the last century of the last millennium. To this day the family has an aversion to mules and horses. They are also very mechanized. So, when my father-in-law saw farmers in Cuba using mules and plows, he was amazed.
    57
  4. Great analysis. One thing in Milei's favor is that the system is so messed up that he could hardly make it worse. I fully expect him to make it better.
    53
  5. Good analysis. The latest I heard out of India is that they were planning to buy 1,000 US Stryker IFVs to replace Russian BMPs. In the recent past they have been pulling away from Russian arms. It will take time. For example, they dropped out of the SU-57 program. They bought French Rafale fighters. They are also buying other US equipment and, in many cases, planning on co-producing the systems (as seems to be the case with the Stryker). They are also beefing up their own defense industry. I often joke that the Ukrainians should charge their western backers a marketing fee. Western weapons are more in demand than ever. What they have done to the Russian defense industry in terms of foreign sales is epic. By extension, the Chinese defense industry struggles with foreign sales. After all, their stuff is a low-quality copy of Soviet/Russian stuff and the corruption there is at least as bad.
    45
  6. Your husband is correct. During the Cold War it was in our interest to do what we did (not that it was always perfect). Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we have been coasting along with the old assumptions. We need to have the debate on what our new assumptions should be.
    38
  7. Peter, you missed a big one. South and Southeast Asia. China is building dams that affect many of the rivers that originate in the Tibetan Plateau. This affects rivers like the Mekong, Indus and Ganges among others. Maybe you could look at that.
    31
  8. I think everyone underplays the Turkey factor. Erdogan would love to recreate the Ottoman Empire, at least in part, especially going into the oil producing regions. Actually, Turkey becoming a regional power is something I got from Peter. I think that Syria is just a first step. The HTS militants in the street are shouting (paraphrasing), "On the Jerusalem, on to Mecca". It is really up to the Europeans to deal with this. I think they might be more interested in dealing with the Turks than the various Arab groups.
    28
  9. What a lot of people forget is that when there were Israelis in Gaza, they had greenhouses and were growing food. I don't know what percentage of their needs they could grow, but I believe some of the food was for export. Whatever the case, when the Israelis withdrew the Palestinians smashed up all the greenhouses. This brings to mind another situation. Earlier in the Syrian civil war I was watching a conference with an anti-Assad group of refugees who were in Washington, DC at a think tank. The problem of water "insecurity" came up. Someone in the audience mentioned Israeli technology that could help. The Syrians basically discounted that because it was Jewish technology. That says it all.
    26
  10. The Chinese can and do throw money at industries. What is not much talked about is the level of corruption. They have, at least twice, created massive state-owned funds to develop chip technology. Each time they do this there is no result, and a lot of the fund managers get arrested and jailed.
    21
  11.  @partofme100  I assume you are German. Let us know. As for his experience, it fits in with a lot of what I have experienced (I lived and worked in Europe and did a lot of business in Germany) and knowledge I have through in-laws in Germany. One of those in-laws surprised me one day. He had done what I did (a foreign assignment) in opposite direction. He was also a high-level exec in a German auto parts manufacturer. One day, standing on my deck in the US, he expressed a strong desire to move to the US. We could go on for a while about why that is. You have to understand that his family is an old established one. They have even traced their family back to 1700 (I saw the document). My sons studied German in high school at the AP level and considered studying in Germany (at least for a semester) and considered going to Germany to work after university. They decided not to. That is actually a typical decision. One the non-family front I have met German entrepreneurs in high tech who wanted to move to the US. I have met none who wanted to go the other way. The loser in all this is Germany.
    18
  12. I don't always agree with Peter on the details of things like supply chains and military matters, but I do on the macro trends. I have read all his books, and now have seen lots of videos. When I mention him while commenting elsewhere, I get a whole range of retorts. On the China situation, and the global trade situation, he is so right on with his prognostications it is almost scary. With China specifically I feel I am watching it in real-time. I just read that 100 Japanese companies have withdrawn from China in the last three years. Apple, with their contract manufacturer Foxconn, has been moving their production to Vietnam and India.
    18
  13. I remember talking to my wife about the choices in the election in 2000. We were actually living in England at the time. One thing I specifically remember is that Bush was against regime change wars and foreign entanglements. That resonated with both of us, and we voted for him. Then 9/11 happened (we were still in England). As for the technological advances with the military, I can attest to that. We had both worked in the aerospace and defense industry. One funny, but semi-serious, proposal that I heard while working in a highly classified area is instructive. Some thought that we should let the Soviets get a hold of the code, not including the documentation, of one of the major systems. They would then have to put a large number of people on it. It would significantly slow down work on their own systems. By the time they figured it out, we would be a generation or two ahead of them. Never happened, but it might have been interesting.
    17
  14. In general, I agree with Peter, with the caveat that I do not believe his assertion that we will be able to do it if Taiwan were taken. What will happen is that the industry will adapt. The whole foundry industry, which I have followed from its inception, grew organically. It was more of a business-driven process than a technological one. Some types of chips may go up in price for a while, but the system will reconfigure itself. The value of this industry is such that it will attract the capital necessary to do this and competition will drive the prices back down.
    17
  15. Peter's description of US action after WWII in setting up the security order is correct but lacks some context. Don't forget that the US has always been wary of foreign wars (seems hard to believe now). From the Monroe Doctrine to the isolationism prior to both world wars, the attitude of the US populace has been decidedly against intervention. Until the aftermath of WWII, the US was also protectionist, as was most of the world. This helps explain both what Peter points out today with trade generally, and with support for Ukraine for example.
    16
  16. The decoupling moves faster and faster. I just saw an article in the WSJ about the factory boom in the US, which you have been talking about. I would love to see a western hemisphere centered supply chain/economy.
    15
  17. That's what competition is all about.
    15
  18. Right on! I have followed Peter for a while now and read all his books. What we are seeing happen in geopolitics and economics is happening now in real time. In regard to this video, I just saw in the news that a Korean company was building a chemical plant in the US. Of course, many German companies are as well. There are even some Chinese companies doing so.
    14
  19.  @JoeBlow-wr5em  Ah, yes. The omniscient and omnipotent CIA.
    12
  20. Great dig at Boston at the end.
    11
  21. Drones are important but the kind of disparity you discuss has been around since WWII when aircraft really came into their own. Don't forget, the biggest, strongest battleships ever produced were both sunk by aircraft with a similar price disparity. Drones are another tool in the toolbox. To understand my point, you have to answer the question of why the infantry, armor and artillery on both sides is not shrinking in significance. The US pioneered the use of drones in the GWT. What Ukraine has done is to us them to supplement their inadequate artillery and total lack of airpower. They are, of course, innovating but you also have to consider their adversary. If Don't get me wrong, the Ukrainians have been very creative. They have to be. But, as I mentioned, the drones are not allowing them to shrink the size of their military, especially foot soldiers.
    9
  22. I recall seeing one fly through the center of Baghdad, down a street, during a CNN broadcast. While they may use GPS, what made them unique, and incredibly hard to defend against, is that they used terrain matching from images stored in the missile. This made them basically impossible to disrupt electronically.
    9
  23.  @agustintarzian9450  Oh, say its not true..
    8
  24. Excellent take on the issue. The aspect that was left out was the role of local governments. Property sales to these developers have been one of their largest sources of income. They have used this to build a lot of the infrastructure projects that the central government has pushed on them. On top of that, the money that flows through this system is a major source of corruption. So, not only are the average people affected, but the party officials and their cronies would be screwed. Add in the probable involvement of criminal gangs, and Xi has more to worry about than the common people. Oh, and the whole financial system, bank and non-bank, is underpinned by the property sector. If they used mark to market accounting, all the banks in China would be insolvent. Default rates are though the roof. To add insult to injury, 60% of loans for Xi's belt and road initiative are nonperforming. The Chinese courts are NOT big on rule of law. In fact, one of their top judges (the top judge?) said that the role of the courts was to support the CCP. The rule of law was, at best, a secondary consideration.
    8
  25. Precisely! The Israeli experience and the US experience in Iraq, twice, proves that. Those situations also disprove the old saw that the attacking side needs three times the number of troops as the defending side to be successful. The weapons, and tactics, are "force multipliers". People seem to forget that, but that is dogma (and a correct one) in the US military.
    8
  26. Peter, you are so far off base on this that it amazes me. Trump is building up political capital for himself (who doesn't need it) and the Republican Party he has built long into the future. You may want to limit yourself for geopolitics and long-term trends in the economy. Just a thought.
    8
  27. Literally!
    7
  28. Nailed it! Once in Helsinki I saw three icebreakers in the harbor that I was told were nuclear powered. I just thought that was a fun fact.
    7
  29. The models are indeed no longer relevant. One thing Peter often talks about is the baby boomers taking their money out of stocks and putting it into bonds. Check out this article from the Wall Street Journal titled "These Hot New Funds Are ‘Boomer Candy’ for Retirees". The boomer generation (full disclosure, I are one) was already unprecedented. This is just another example of the difference from prior generations. This is important in the context of this video, since one of the issues Peter often talks about in regard to this industrial buildout we are experiencing is the massive capital required. Actually, I think that Peter overplays that situation. US, and European and Japanese capital are often being deployed overseas. This entails more risk for a potentially small extra return. There is plenty of capital about.
    7
  30. Fully agree. Electoral politics is not his specialty. It is also not at the core of his work. He should stay away from it. What we are seeing here is the manifestation of a trend on YouTube. People who have something valuable to say in one area decide they have to opine on everything even remotely similar. I find this in science communicators as well as many other topics.
    7
  31. This stuff has moved around. The issue, as Peter pointed out, is really capital and regulation. Take rare earth metals, for example. They used to be mined and processed in the US. The processing is extremely dirty and the cost in the US to do it cleanly allowed China to swoop in and take that market. It is the same with iron, steel and aluminum. Two things will be needed. Regulatory reform and industrial policy. This has been anathema to many, but world conditions will change that. The Chips Act is a good example.
    6
  32. Actually, the Germans will have to rely more on coal. They are already doing it. There was a recent situation where they dismantled a wind farm to expand coal production. They have also decided to extend the life of their remaining nuclear plants for at least a year. Even Gretta Thunberg has said that they should keep the nuclear plants open. Who knows, they may even have to begin fracking. Yes, they will resist this, but when the choice is to become cold and poor, things can change.
    6
  33. Peter makes a good point. On the Monroe Doctrine, that was geared towards the Europeans. The US didn't want European wars coming to the Western Hemisphere. That has been successful for the most part. China will try debt trap diplomacy, and many people use the example of Sri Lanka. The US has no pressing interest in Sri Lanka. The Indians do. Let them deal with it. In South America the US will step in, where it makes sense, to bail out those countries, and it probably will be private capital. There are already examples of the "tofu dreg" construction that the Chinese are famous for in South America. The South Americans will get the point. This is true in Africa, and western countries have started to step in there as well. As China collapses things will get better. Frankly, that collapse is going to happen sooner rather than later.
    6
  34.  @LRRPFco52  I mostly agree with what you said, except for one thing. China is actively trying to export fighter jets and other military equipment, such as tanks.
    6
  35.  @reioXyhi  There should be no peace until Russia gets out of all of Ukraine.
    6
  36. Great points. Actually, the African situation is mostly the result of globalization. The populations of many of those countries grew well beyond the carrying capacity of the land because of globalization. As the Ukraine war has highlighted, these populations are very vulnerable. One example, which I got from Peter in his books is Egypt. They switched from wheat production to cotton for economic reasons. They could always buy wheat cheap, and their cotton was in demand. The population grew dramatically. Now, if they switched all their production back to wheat, they would not have enough to feed the bloated population. As you point out, they are F'd.
    6
  37. One of the best analyses I have seen of these issues. Of course, I expected as much based on his books and other videos. The China situation is what has really fascinated me and held my attention. The central part is Xi's role. Nothing that Xi or the CCP has done in the last few years has been off script from Peter's analysis. Nothing! I check the news every day and look at the effects of what the Chinese are doing and announcing, and it is like reading one of his books. The only thing I would quibble on is the timing. Peter gives them till 2030. I don't think it will be nearly that long. Actually, Peter's prediction is "by 2030" so that even if it happened tomorrow, he would be safe in that. By the way, Peter's overall view of the world and where things are heading is also spot on.
    6
  38. I see differing takes on this. On the spot market, Urals crude is trading at a slight discount. The big customers, India and China, are switching to Iranian crude because it is cheaper. This market is very quick moving. A few days ago it was $100+ a barrel, now we are running at $85. That's a big difference. There is another aspect of Russian oil being available. While the price is currently higher than the $60, it is not as high as oil was at the peak after the invasion. One economist pointed out that keeping the Russian oil in the market, with restrictions, keeps the world price down. This is, of course, true. It provides Russia with some income, but it is also a source that could be interdicted at any time.
    6
  39.  @GivingBackOnline  The shits are supposed to come later, after breakfast.
    6
  40.  @judewarner1536  So, true, and not really the correct word to use. Frankly, I don't know if there is a correct word for what this person is trying to say. I see this all the time where people either misuse/misunderstand the language and/or the comment does not address the content of the video or someone else's comment.
    6
  41.  @khatack  He has become a typical YouTuber.
    6
  42. There is one thing that Peter leaves out about wind. Recyclability of the materials, especially the turbine blades, which are massive on the ones he is talking about. They are not, as far as I can tell, recyclable. I have seen a good bit of mention of the problem. Solar, by the way, is similar in this regard. So, if you take into account the life cycle carbon impact of wind, it may not be that great. Take an old coal plant and most of its parts can be recycled. That coal plant will last a lot longer as well.
    5
  43. I hear the same thing about the Saudi military. They are toast.
    5
  44. I have been following Stubb on YouTube as well. Good call.
    5
  45. Great video. This whole thing brings back the good old days at the height of the Cold War. I miss the Cold War. Good to see it coming back. I was once working for an aerospace and defense contractor. At one point I was the CIO of the spacecraft plant. This was in a different group, operations, than I had been in before, which was engineering. All of a sudden, I became aware of details that in engineering I would not have dealt with. One was that the company (in conjunction with relevant government agencies, I assume) was tracking 15 known Soviet spies. The word "known" was stressed because we knew that we did not know all of them. I have started to see renewed talk about "illegals" in the press these days. There was a long and detailed article in the WSJ very recently about some in Europe that were caught recently.
    4
  46.  @jazzrockr  Very good points. I am an ardent supporter of Israel, but being an American I am still sometimes uncomfortable with the role religion plays in their government. I understand it, but it is something alien to an American. Ultimately it is tied up with the uniqueness of what it means to be a Jew and their whole history, which is long. If you read that history (and I read the Bible every day), then you get the feeling that not much has changed in almost 4,000 years.
    4
  47. It is very interesting to see this happening in "real time". The comment about the companies having to relocate is important. I have seen many, even Chinese, companies relocate. I recently bought three items (battery powered lawn tools) from a company that manufactured in China. Two of the three are made in Vietnam. The reality is that industrial plant is always being renewed and revised. Moving it is not quite as big a deal as some make out. You only have to look at the US before the opening to China and the move away from the Northeast and Midwest. A lot of that was driven by issues with labor unions. It happens all the time. After the opening to China, I also had experience with major companies that had just recently opened a new plant in the US and turned around and moved it to China. With the contract manufacturing model most companies use now, the move is actually simplified.
    4
  48.  @vaakdemandante8772  Well, I think you overplay the power of business interests. Actually, for most of business, war is not good for business. Also, there is not a real separation between business and the populace. If you hadn't noticed, most people work (in a business) for their living. As for there being a book about it, I can't believe you would base your opinions on a book. For just about any issue, you can find "a" book on all three sides of the issue.
    4
  49. Excellent overview of the situation. The land and mineral rights ownership difference between the US and Europe (and probably most everywhere else) is something that is fixable but deeply embedded in European culture. I ran into this when I was living in the UK. In the US the landowner not only owns the mineral rights, but also the hunting and fishing rights. These are two activities that I enjoy. So, when I got there, I was asking about opportunities to partake in both. That's when I found out that they are all separate. Being a history buff (purely amateur, my field in technology, software and hardware) I looked into it. It really goes back to feudal times. In England, the monarch actually owns the whole place. Obviously, this has evolved, and the monarch would have difficulty claiming many of the old rights and prerogatives. He gives permissions to various people to use the land for particular purposes. Hunting rights, and to some extent fishing rights, were (still are) jealously guarded by the monarch. On the fishing rights, I had two interesting experiences where I lived which was Winchester in Hampshire. The River Test (the hallowed Test) was near the city. There was a town, Stockbridge, where I learned to fly fish. There is a hotel there and in the early 18th century they obtained about 12 miles of fishing rights on the Test. Then they set up a club. Prospective members had to live a day's ride (by horse) away. This was all done to generate business for the hotel. The club is still in operation. It costs about 400GBP to rent a small stretch of the river for the day for up to four "rods". On the other hand, the River Itchen runs through the city of Winchester, and anyone can fish there within the city limits (with a normal fishing license, of course). I tell this story because it is indicative of the many land use conventions that one finds all over Europe that are drastically different from the US, as Peter has pointed out. That would be difficult, from a purely cultural point of view, to change. One other thought. In Communist China the CCP owns the whole place. They don't actually sell land there, although one often hears about people buying land, or a home (usually and apartment). Actually, they are only paying for the right to use the land for anywhere from 40 to 70 years.
    4
  50.  @gawkthimm6030  Well, I don't know about France. Wasn't it Macron who has been pushing for an EU army. In his speech on that, he identified the EU's potential adversaries as Russia, China and the US.
    4