Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "Is the US Looking for a War? || Ask Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. I just saw an analysis on another channel putting the timescale for a Russian victory and the number of casualties at astronomical numbers. This is based on territory won by the Russians and casualties taken. Of course, the guy in question is a game theorist and political scientist, so the analysis is pretty much devoid of any military value, but it just goes to show how inferior the Russian military is (tactics, logistics, soldiers and equipment). It also shows that Putin does not have the means to win. This was quite evident when Soviet supplied and trained countries clashed with US/NATO countries. The best examples of this are all the Israeli wars, Desert Storm (Desert Shield was the precursor buildup and air campaign) and the 2003 Iraq invasion. To some extent the Iran-Iraq War could be included, since the revolution in Iran had happened not long before the invasion by Iraq. In case you are not aware, the Soviet stuff did not fare well. The only question was whether having actual Soviet troops involved would make a difference. We now know that it doesn't. In a previous job I dealt with simulations of precisely the conflict with the Soviets that everyone is afraid of. This was at the Command and General Staff College. We gave the Soviets too much credit. By the way, the Egyptian army command visited after their peace treaty with Israel. They wanted to use the simulator (one of the regions modeled was the Siani) but they wanted the colors changed so that they were the blue side and the Israelis were the red. It was funny, because on the old version of the simulator this required a hardware change. In the beginning of this millennium, I was at Edinburgh Castle. In the gift shop I got a book by a British military officer looking at the possible Soviet invasion at the Fulda Gap as a scenario. That was the primary one modeled in the simulators I worked on. Actually, the book was about the western armored vehicles. That author had a much more positive view on the western equipment and chances than most American commentators. In the case of the Ukraine war, it is clear that neither side has the offensive capability to win. This actually comes down to air power. Since WWII it has been air power that has been decisive, in conjunction with an integrated Air-Land Battle doctrine. The best, and cheapest (can't believe I am saying that) thing the west could do is to concentrate on building up Ukraine's capabilities there. Biden has been very bad on that and is thus prolonging the war.
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