Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "Poland, After America || Peter Zeihan" video.
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Wow! A run at Moscow. Just think about it. The Poles from the west. Belorussia would join in. I seriously don't believe the population there supports Lukashenko. The Ukrainians from the southwest heading northeast. Finally, you have the Finns from the northwest. Of course, a lot of other smaller countries would join in (e.g., the Baltic states). It might be best to leave the Germans behind on this one.
In Russia, to the east and south, this would be the opportunity for many of the ethnic republics to revolt. It might be easy for them as well. In the far east, China would finally grab all the territory Xi thinks was stolen by the Soviets and a whole lot more. The Japanese would resolve their territorial issues with Moscow, in their favor of course.
The thing is, looking at how the Russian army has performed in Ukraine, except for the nukes, the scenario is actually quite possible. The forces mentioned have the firepower to do this.
And don't give me any guff about needing a three to one advantage in manpower to attack. That is basically a 19th century metric. It assumes technical power parity. Look at the 20th century. In WWI, the Germans decisively beat a much larger Russian army as an attacker. Leadership and logistics were factors. The Russians had trouble feeding their people and they didn't even have enough rifles for their soldiers. In 1921 the Poles stopped the Soviets. This was one of the more significant victories in the post WWI period. It forced Lenin to propose "socialism in one country". Don't forget, Marxist-Leninist communism is an internationalist ideology. To give that up, if only for a time was a great blow. Back to the troop ratios, frankly, if Hitler hadn't been such a poor strategist, he could have taken Moscow. Actually, his best play would have been the southern arc. There he would get lots of food (Ukraine) and oil. Then a march up the Volga, perhaps.
This is so much fun to speculate on.
One further note, Peter's timeframes for things like the dissolution of regimes like Russia and China are way too long. I follow events in China (and lots of other places as well) and they won't make it 2030. Heck, they might not make it the end of 2025 (at latest). Russia seems to be on a similar trajectory.
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