Comments by "Louis Giokas" (@louisgiokas2206) on "Japan: Zero No More (Interest Rates Are Rising) || Peter Zeihan" video.

  1. As Peter often says, we need new economic models for what is happening in the world. This is the scary part. What scares me most is that the titans of finance are not the most advanced when it comes to theoretical thinking (trying to keep it clean here). That is not what they do. When the assumptions they make are false and/or something new comes along, they are typically at a loss. Their whole approach is using what came in the past to predict the future. One of the best examples is the housing market in China. The problem here is that they rely on statistics and mathematics, as most scientists also do. Now don't get me wrong, I have a significant background in statistics and mathematics. The problem comes in when you rely on these for the explanation. The statistical information, or advanced mathematics, do not tell you why something is happening. Statistics is a tool. It is not an explanation. Models of everything from markets to economies to the universe are based on assumptions and explanations. The math does not give a crap about that. The crux of all this is that we are likely to stumble around looking for a model or solution to the problems we face. The thing that makes me pessimistic is that this is all going to happen in the political realm. Politics is the worst place to do this. Politicians are the worst at telling people why they are doing what they are doing. Sometimes it is because they don't think the people could take it (not an unreasonable assumption) and part is because it they did, they might be lynched.
    2
  2. 1