Spring Bloom
Military Summary
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Comments by "Spring Bloom" (@springbloom5940) on "The Front Line Is Stirring. Wagner Controls The Situation At Bakhmut. Military Summary For 2023.5.12" video.
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@alexandernorman5337
Hes made a life's work of turning out weaklings. He definitely is playing a psych game. Not all of it is an act, though. Hes a warrior, not a strategist and doesn't believe in anything but charging forward. So, he gets bent out of shape a little, by not having unlimited resources to feed his thirst; or by the army moving backward. But, he fully and completely grasps the consequences of showing weakness and everytime Ukraine makes moves to disengage from his AO, he publicly displays weakness. Then, Ukraine recommits.
Evaluating his behavior is complicated by what you believe about Russia and their politics. If you really believe they have a stranglehold on information and censor everything about the war, then his outbursts look more like theater, as the target audience is presumed to be Ukraine and Western media. If, on the other hand, you believe the Russian people at large can be expected to see it, then he looks more like a raging hothead who thinks the Russian military are all useless imbeciles and hes really going to just ragequit and go home. I think its all of the above. I think he gets frustrated that the Russian army isnt as hard charging as he is and feels like hes carrying all the water, but he plays up and exaggerates his frustrations as an information campaign. Both sides have a god's eye view of the battlefield, so very little tactical surprise is available. Both sides have to rely almost exclusively on psychology to achieve any effective deception. Prig and Putin have spent their lives punking people like Zelensky, Righteous Strike and Western media. So, whatever Wagner says, or claims, or goes off about, Id level it toward a somewhat less dramatic reality.
As to the larger Russian strategy, Russia is in a much stronger and Ukraine a much weaker position than last Fall, but they still have to be patient and very careful. They need Ukraine to commit with a concentrated effort, in order to respond to it. So, they're going to have to give some significant ground and allow Ukraine to push into their lines. Wagner is not going to like that. Especially in their AO.
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