Spring Bloom
Sky News
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Comments by "Spring Bloom" (@springbloom5940) on "Ukraine War: Ukraine 'liberates southern area' of Robotyne - here's why it could be important" video.
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'So good'
Yeah, the issue is what hes 'so good' at. Ukraine has spent more lives and equipment on Robotyne, than Wagner did on Bakhmut. Let that sink in for a moment...
A little more...
Now, they've shifted to squad level assaults at an even narrower point of the line, because they're unable to rotate enough reserves to reconstitute losses and have settled on 'clout' operations.
Is Robotyne a gain? Yes.
Is it operationally significant to their offensive objective? No.
Will they continue to push and make 'gains' in that AO? Probably.
What will that mean for Russian operations? Once Ukraine fully commits to an objective, probably the Robotyne AO and cant redeploy forces to match them, Russia is going to march their ~100,000 troops in the North and engage 20,000 - 30,000 of their ~70,000 reserves at Donetsk, probably to cutoff the advance at Tokmak.
Essentially, Russia is going to absorb the Ukrainian push until it flames out, then move in to reestablish and fix the lines for the winter. Then they'll take a bite out of the North, mobilize another quarter million troops, train them over the winter and deploy them to Donbas. They'll do this until Donbas is nothing but Russian soldiers, while Ukraine runs out of personnel. NATO sees it and is why the sudden provision of aircraft. Its not to facilitate any offensive action, but a desperate urgent attempt to stabilize the lines and stop any further Russian advance.
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