Comments by "Spring Bloom" (@springbloom5940) on "THETI Mapping" channel.

Ukraine eventually has to just march whats left of their combat power, into a spot. I suspected Robotyne or Bakhmut; or Robotyne as a feint for Bakhmut. But, they're out of time and things have gone very badly, so its probably going to be just Robotyne. The problem for Ukraine, is Russia's defensive strategy is planned around exactly that necessity. Russia has been easing the front back to their prepared positions, waiting for Ukraine to do it. Once Ukraine has committed and cant redeploy troops to match them, Russia is going to use the ~100,000 uncommitted troops in the north and the ~70,000 reserve forces at Donetsk. I fully expect Ukraine to make some 'gains' that theyll pump their fists and take a media victory lap on, but it wont be enough to achieve any of the operational goals of their offensi6and they'll gut their own army doing it. NATO sees this and is why the sudden rush to send aircraft. They know it will not help Ukraine offensive capabilities and is rather a desperate solution to stop Russia from steamrolling to the Dnipro. People still are very unclear on the fact that Russia didnt come to break shit and leave. They came to stay and are playing a very long game. They will beat up Ukraine a little and move in a few extra troops while they recover. They'll do that over and over again, for 20 years if thats what it takes. Like an advancing glacier.
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Its looking like Ukraine really is going to be silly enough to throw everything into a counterattack at 'symbolic' Bakhmut. The problem for Ukraine, it that for the first time in a year of operation, Russia has a numerical advantage and its now Ukraine that doesn't have the manpower to secure the front. Russia is poised for a major offensive at Donetsk and another offensive is developing at Kupiansk. Ukraine doesnt have the combat power to task for a counterattack, without abandoning at least one of those AOs.
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Russia is only destroying equipment and is avoiding a standup fight, because A) they don't want to destroy these towns and villages and B) they want to capture as many Ukrainians as possible. They're moving to cutoff the Ukrainian rear, while evacuating an exclusion zone and establishing a security perimeter. When they have them contained they'll collapse the zone and force them to surrender. These are high value troops for intelligence and leverage.
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Russia is starting to ease. Ukraine is out of time and has taken far too heavy losses to continue pressing a dispersed offensive. They have to pick a spot and just march whats left of their army into it. Thats what Russian defenses are designed for. They're going to continue giving ground to encourge a push in one spot and then they're going to launch a major and minor offensive to the north and south of the Ukrainian push, once Ukraine is committed and cant redeploy forces to challenge them.
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 @arkadefire5909 I think they're beginning to realize F16s and Abrams wont help them.
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@somerandomvertebrate9262 I agree with most of that, from a strategic perspective. By 'long game' I simply mean that their primary objective is to permanently occupy the currently occupied territory (plus Kherson/Kharkiv) and create a DMZ to the Dnipro. The reason this has been so difficult for everyone to understand, is that they persist in projecting Western models and motives onto peoples with a completely different worldview. The reason the war is going so poorly for Western interests, is they narcissistically project their own motives onto Russia and China. Russia has exactly zero desire to take Ukraine and the hysteria about conquering Europe is just laughably imbecilic. Hannibal ad Portas!
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@Afribeauty-k9u Exactly. Russia didnt secure this area because they underestimated Ukraine's 5u151d4l desperation for clicks and clout. Meanwhile, Russia is advancing the entire front by kilometers per day, collapsing Ukrainian lines and taking down strongholds on a daily basis, because Ukraine simply doesn't have enough meat to man the line. So, what do they do? Send their best trained, best equipped, most experienced troops to do hit and run attacks and tour the highways taking selfies and keying their radios.
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@cliffordnelson8454 Its been a total success. Its a clout operation. No one is talking about the accelerating steamroller along the rest of the front.
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@mattmccaughen7371 🤦🏽‍♀️
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@mattmccaughen7371 You have exactly zero clues
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Lol
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@billyjoesmo8251 They're dragging the prisoners around with them and posing them for photos. They're not sending them back to Ukraine, but it always is a similar number on the photos.
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 @liamdesmond4504 Russia, is out of missiles, Russia is collapsing, Putin is terminally ill...
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@cliffordnelson8454 Wow, your reading comprehension is shit
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Righteous Strike is a POFS that needs a Roman retirement to clean what remains of his honor.
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@Macbrother Maybe you should stick with videogames
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@Macbrother See, the difference is, I've been right about everything they're doing, whereas people who lol at everything, have been pretty consistently wrong because after 2 years they still have learned nothing about Russian strategy and view everything in candy crush tactics. Shocking, right? You're the kind of people who thought Russia wasn't destroying everything with a pipe or cable coming out of it, because they couldn't... until Ukraine bombed the Kerch bridge and you lol'd at Zelensky trolling him on Twitter like a 12 year old. The missiles haven't stopped falling since.
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No, they're ramping up for a 'Roman column'. They'll pick a spot and line up their army and march it continuously into battle, like a meat drill. It's effective, as it has the benefit of continuous supply and troop rotation against a fixed enemy, unable to rotate or supply troops. But, has the liability of heavy casualties and inevitable self-pocketing, as the column penetrates the lines. Napoleon is the most notable modern practitioner of this tactic. They have the combat power to deliver a staggering blow, but it will cost them their army. It would be a dangerous gamble, wagering their future on someone giving them yet another new army, before Russia's ears stop ringing and responds. I believe that was their intent with destroying the dam, but the flooding wasnt as extensive or long lasting as they anticipated.
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@zhihao1 Keep telling yourself that
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@72Kraken You have the self-awareness of a potato.
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@dennisyoung7363 Id really like to know how he'd know that, as thats the sort of thing that would be highly classified.
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@dennisyoung7363 And he reported this before it happened, right?
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@thethinkingman- Yeah bruh, I worked in military intelligence for 10 years. This simply did not happen. But sure, I guess Russia just let Ukraine come across the border and wreak havoc, take at minimum hundreds of prisoners and plant flags in 30 towns, for some galaxy brain 40D chess move that no one sees yet.
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@dennisyoung7363 Oh, the ole 'I told some unnamed people but they didn't believe me'
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@dennisyoung7363 Everyone's credibility is stellar when they report on things that already happened.
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