Youtube comments of JW Han (@jwhan2086).

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  15. 유럽쪽 소식통들로부터 비슷한 얘기들을 듣고는 있는데 반신반의했었습니다. 우크라이나 전쟁 발발 전에 독일쪽으로부터 러시아의 침공작전계획에 대해 듣기는 했었는데(그 소식통은 나토 사무총장이 독일언론에서 얘기해준 것이라고 했습니다) 허튼소리 취급했다가 그대로 러시아가 침공하는 걸 보고 깜짝 놀란 적이 있었는데, 그런 일이 있다보니 이번 얘기는 그냥 지나치기 힘들군요. 조회수가 얼마나 나올지는 모르겠는데, 이번에 문제가 되는 발틱3국에 대한 취재나 연구가 혹시 있을까요? 코로나 전에 유럽연합과 일본쪽의 합동연구로 발틱 3국에서 경제적 존재감에 대한 비교연구로 독일, 중국, 한국을 비교한 리포트를 본 적이 있었는데, 비슷한 시기 폴란드쪽으로부터도 동유럽과 중국의 경제협력인 17+1 계획에 대한 동유럽의 회의감과 그로인해 대체제로서 한국과의 경제안보협력을 고려하고 있다는 내용을 접했었습니다. 그리고 지난번에 폴란드와 많은 일들이 있었죠. 저야 나토 안에서 한국의 존재감이 커지는 것이 향후 한미관계에서 우리의 레버리지가 되어줄 수 있다고 봐서 찬성합니다만, 동유럽에서 한국에 대한 기대가 있는지, 있다면 어떤 종류의 기대를 어느정도로 하고 있는지 궁금합니다. .....아니면 지난번 폴란드 총선으로 정권교체가 되면서 폴란드 정국이 아수라장이 되었다던데 그거랑 폴란드와 한국의 방산협력이 뭐 엎어진다느니 만다느니 했던 썰들 사이의 관계를 적당히 버무리면 그건 조회수가 좀 나올까요? 하여간 항상 다양한 정보를 다방면에서 종합해주시는 점 항상 감사드립니다. 겨울날씨 추운데 감기조심하십시오.
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  31. It is frequently said "Trump deteriorated the ROKUS alliance" but as one who is watching the alliance from the ROK side, it is not true. If there was anything Trump damaged alliance, our great friend Xi counterbalanced it immediately. So, generally speaking, there has been no huge changes. The US troop (no, technically speaking, it is the UN army) has been still on the Korean peninsula. The US and ROK still have a stable trade relationship compared to that with China. Yeah, burden-sharing negotiation. Almost all Korean believed that what Trump really wanted was to push reluctant Korean leaders, in particular Moon Jae-in, to join in the strategic collision against China. If he seriously wanted just money, it would be something really surprising. Actually, yes, a number of channels told me that it is true that Trump really hated Moon, and many Korean voters, including my friends find it, strikingly, understandable, because they believe, if there is anyone who damaged the alliance, it would be Moon. But I also found that on a number of occasions, Trump actually defended Moon during his diplomacy. So I disagree with the notion "Trump deteriorated the ROKUS alliance." If there is any moment the alliance damaged during the 21st century, it must be during the Obama presidency. There are numerous cases that Obama deteriorated the credibility of the ROKUS alliance, but I will just mention two main examples. First, the disastrous "strategic patience", which means doing nothing while the North Korean was developing the nuclear program and violated the armistice treaty repeatedly. Even Obama threatened Lee Myung-back administration not to retaliate to North Korean provocation after the North bombed civilian residence in Yeonpyeongdo Island. Ok, that's quite acceptable. He might just want to keep peace within his presidency. But later is not acceptable. Second, the inactivity during THAAD retaliation. The South Korean government accepted the THAAD system NOT TO DEFEND its people BUT TO DEFEND the US military base on the southern part of South Korea. Actually, the system does not cover even Seoul where I'm sitting. Park Geun-hye administration agreed on the deployment of the THAAD system after long-hesitance because everybody expected China will retaliate against South Korea if it accepts deploying the THAAD system on its territory. And it happened. What Obama administration did? Nothing. He might wash his hands while watching what was going on ROK-China relations as if he had nothing to do with this issue. A similar thing has happened under the Biden administration as well. Three months ago, Iranians seized a Korean oil tanker on the Hormuz Strait. What did the US navy do? Just watching Iranian coast guards taking the tanker (yes they were there) and doing nothing. South Korean government had to deal with it by themselves alone. The Biden administration provided no support and no advice. Ok. the US can blackmail ROK (when Biden was the vice-president, he actually blackmailed president Park saying not to bet on the opposite side of the US, which was she had never imagined doing so.). The US can choose to appease China and to abandon ROK for its own, unilateral interest (actually the US had chosen to appease Japan and to abandon Koreans, and the result was the colonisation of Korea under Imperial Japan.). But when the US talking about the alliance, Americans needs to have a close look at the trajectory of the alliance. You can criticise Trump for his bad diplomacy. But it is not fair to criticise him for something he didn't. So, Biden said America is back and he is back, and guys we had seen during Obama presidency back. Why South Korean should expect the US under Biden will keep their commitment to the alliance? All of these people have just talked with no action. Many South Koreans are willing to run into the fog of war with Americans and they already proved it in Vietnam, Afganistan, and Iraq. How about Americans? (I recently conducted a vague survey on this issue. "We have a treaty obligation to engage in war if the US is under attack in Pacific area. If it would be the case that the People's Republic of China invades Tawan for "reunification", and if the US navy is attacked during this operation, what should be our response?" The answer from my friends, whether each of them comes from conservative, liberal, progressive camps, was very short. "WAR" And no sign of disagreement. The only matter is, the US keeps strategic ambiguity and has not yet decided what they will do if this happened. Remember your ally needs preparation.)
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  36. 3:57 Foreign policy. Japanese conservative politicians pretend to be interested in countering Chinese aggression or North Korean threat so that they increase defence spending and revise the Pacifist constitution. But what they are really interested in is to revise the Pacifist Constitution and become a "Normal Nation" so they use countering Chinese aggression, defending Taiwan, or the war in Ukraine as a justification tool. Japanese, in fact, are indifferent to these issues. If they were serious, their stance on Seoul would have been much different. All that Japanese politicians are really serious about is to "take back Japan("日本を取り戻す." It is one of the slogans from LDP)" and here "take back" means "make Japan great again as it was before WW2." And probably Washington knows it. 7:47 VisualPolitik is completely misinformed on this issue. It is true that new SK president Yoon expresses he wants to join CPTPP and QUADs and to work with Japanese. But many people are missing that it is Tokyo who firmly opposes Seoul's joining both CPTPP and QUADs. Why? What Japan really wants is not to enhance cooperation with Seoul but to make bent the kneel of South Korea. In this respect Japan has surprisingly a lot in common with their Chinese counterpart: both don't see Seoul as something that should have been their vessel state rather than an independent sovereign power. When Japanese talk they want to cooperate with South Korea on security, it means that they want to send Japanese Defeninto South Korean territory to rescue Japanese civilians there and take back them into Japanese archipelago. This was what Japanese really demanded when the GSOMIA negotiation started. Tokyo has zero interest to counter Beijing or Pyongyang militarily. 10:22 AND FINALLY ECONOMY. Well........ Well said, but what makes Kishida's plan different from Abe's chant? Both talk about increasing public spending, pushing the private sector to boost minimum wages, and encouraging investment. All of these is an old common chant from conservative Japanese. The only difference is to renounce the Quantitative Easing policy. (One of the new possible solutions would be to improve economic ties with South Korea. Japanese small business has tremendous potential in South Korean customers and their anti-Japan sentiment is not that strong compared to the past. It is a reasonable choice but somehow Japan is too inward-looking. Be ambitious, boys!) I would like to end my comment by quoting my Japanese friend's comment on three Japanese politicians when Kishida Fumio and Kono Taro were competing in the LDP leadership race. "Abe provided new bottles with old ideas... Kono seemed to try to something new in old bottles... And now Kishida has old bottle with old idea..."
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  38. There are various interpretations of Kim's statement about abandoning the unification of the Korean peninsula. First, his statement itself is really tricky. What kind of unification he was referring to? Because there are various versions of the unification model. Second, he also mentioned that South Korea is his country's permanent enemy. What does it mean? The Korean War was broken out by his grandfather for the unification of the Korean peninsula in the North's term. So if he decided to abandon the goal of unification, the war now become meaningless, so it would be the best time for negotiating a peace agreement. But he didn't. One of the interpretations I agree with is that nothing has changed. He erased the article about the call for unification from the North Korean constitution. However, the unification mentioned in the article does not mean all forms of unification: it meant peaceful unification by negotiation, such as forming the Korean Confederation. At the same time, he also mentioned that the war was ongoing, and the war was a war for unification by force in the North's terms. Furthermore, he at the same time ordered the North Korean military institutions to prepare for restoring the territory in the South, meaning the whole chunk of ROK territory. So it it can be inferred that he still wants to unify the whole chunk of the Korean peninsula by force. Interestingly, Andrei Lankov, one of the prominent researchers of North Korea, recently mentioned in a conference by Korea Economic Institute of America that "North Koreans are beginning to think seriously about a military solution of the Korean problem which is the invasion of the South" It seems that there is a wide agreement among Korea Watchers that Kim's recent comment on the unification meant he found the military solution is the most realistic option for him. There are two points to support this argument. The quantitative and qualitative conventional military superiority of the South could be (not easily but possibly) neutralised by tactical nuclear weapons which Kim and his advisors think usable. American support to its southern ally could be abandoned, not anytime soon but someday. They believe it because they found, from the Ukrainian case, that the decision-makers in Washington would not take the risk of a direct war against another nuclear power.
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  65.  @chenwang5341  I'm already familiar with such an argumentation but I have to tell you that the terms of the power struggle in international politics are by its nature relative. I do not expect you would consider Brazil or Argentina, even though they possess a large number of population with rich resources, as one of the international major powers or even regional hegemons. Two reasons would be there. First, they are too close to the US to run away from the political gravity of the US. Second, no south American nations are overwhelming to their neighbours so that there is no regional hegemon. So I'm a bit worried that it may be you who do not realise that Korea is very marginal power because it is a geopolitical prisoner throughout bloody history with its relative powers. I would like to show you another evidence about how Korea is a minor power. Legally there is no country named 'South Korea.' Only Korea or Republic of Korea exists according to ROK constitution. Yes, there is the Korean version of 'One Korea Policy' just as Beijing has one china policy which they demand the entire world to 'respect' it. (And Kim in the North has respectively his own version of one Korea policy. Nominally, the nuclear program is internally the very mean to achieve this goal by force whenever if necessary) But Seoul has no capacity to put the issue on the table of international negotiations or even to speak out on the issue, while they were forced to leave their old ally, Taipei, by Beijing under the name of one China policy.
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  69. And it is one of the reasons why the Korean peninsula is a flashpoint where major direct military conflict between Beijing and Washington would like to happen. It's a structural problem in the region. 1. Let's assume that the North provokes the South by bombing by artillery or ballistic missiles like they actually did in the 2020s. 2. And then assume that the policymakers in Seoul decided to retaliate by military means, something like bombing or air raid (in the case of Yeonpyong islands bombing, it could have happened if Obama administration did not prevent Seoul from retaliating against the bombing). 3. It means that treaty obligation is imposed on Beijing, which could mean it is highly likely that the Chinese People's Liberation Army's North Theatre would attack Seoul, intentionally or accidentally. 4. Then, it's time for the bilateral military alliance between Seoul and Washington to come in. According to the treaty, now the US Senate and White House are obliged to decide whether they have to engage in or how far they have to go. (Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea does not impose contracting parties to deliver treaty obligation "in accordance with its constitutional processes") 5. Now we are on uncharted water. Policymakers in Washington can make a choice: whether to bite the bullet and run into the fog of World War 3 against China or whether to abandon their ally in Seoul and put their alliance system across the globe in danger. I'm not joking. This scenario is one of the realistic concerns among security strategies in Washington.
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  72. 3:10 "it's just a fluke of fate" My grandfather came from the North during the Korean War, leaving his own family including his son. When my mother's family decided to move from Manchuria(they were Korean resistance against the Japanese during WWII) to the South, one of my mother's uncles decided to remain in the North because he was a socialist. Just a fluke of fate. Not only of my kin blood in the North, but also of "Chaoxianzu" in China. My cousins who I have never been able to see could have lived just as ordinary South Korean have been. Now I have no idea how he is coming along, or even whether he is alive. My mother's Chaoxianzu cousin was lucky. We managed to reconnect with her and she moved to the South got married. South Korean society is an extremely racist society that discriminates against North Korean defectors and Chaoxianzu, but she could be supported by my mother and uncles when she got such a discriminatory issue. But not every North Korean defectors and Chaoxianzu are so lucky. It is always anguished whenever I try to tell my fellow South Korean that those North Korean defectors and Chaoxianzu are our kin blood and the same people so that we should not treat them as second-level citizens or foreigners. And try again to explain it could be just a fluke of fate. But the tragic truth is, most of them, including my closest friends who identify themselves as "Liberals", try to rationalise such a discriminatory attitude against North Korean and Chaoxianzu. What a shame on the nation.
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  89.  K Takezo  I'm not arguing that Korean does nothing wrong but all the fault comes from the American side. And I agree with you that threatening Japan to terminate the agreement was a foolish idea. First, however, I have to point out that the Obama administration had done nothing about building bilateral trust between Seoul and Tokyo when they forced Park Geun-Hye's administration to just sign the agreement. They just forced, literally. During the Obama era, the US allowed Japan to re-arm and what Korean saw was a massive investment in the Japanese ground force. We asked ourselves, why the Japanese invested so much in the ground force. And then there was a rumour(it is not confirmed yet) that Japanese demanded the Korean government provide all the information on every port where troops can land based on the agreement, while Japanese side repeatedly refused to provide any information on the North Korean missile launch. It was a chilling story because it reminded us of the incident in 1894: the Imperial army of Japan occupied Seoul and coup the incumbent Korean government. Shinzo Abe refused to recognise Japanese invasion of Korea in the late 19th and early 20th century, and one of his important ally Aso Taro fumed in the meeting with Park Geun-Hye that he believes we are the separationist and Japan should restore Korea someday. We had a deep distrust of Japan when the agreement came out. Still, there is a certain level of distrust of Japan among some of the so-called liberal-progressive side(Moon Jae-In's allies, in particular), but the situation has quite changed during the Trump administration. Even though Trump did not directly engage in bridging Seoul and Tokyo, many American officials in his government understand the importance of trust-building between two American allies. Two changes I would like to mention here. First, Japan started to provide information on North Korean missile launch after 2017. Second, according to H.R.McMaster, the former NSC advisor to Trump, the US asked Japan to focus on the maritime capability instead of enhancing the ground force, and they did. Moon's threatening to terminate the GSOMIA was a completely foolish idea because he neglected all of these American's effort to enhance the trilateral relationship under the Trump presidency(even though Trump actually did nothing on it.). In conclusion, my point is that the statement "Trump deteriorated the ROKUS alliance" is not true. If the ROKUS alliance was damaged, it would be what the Obama administration had done, or, Obama and two successive foolish Korean leadership, Park and Moon, had done collectively (what mistakes Park and Moon had made is another subject of wordy argument.).
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  90. ​ K Takezo  That's exactly the point the Obama administration criticised, in particular, Park Geun-Hye's presence in the Tiananmen military parade in 2015. To explain the full story is a really hard one because I will have to explain what is South Korea's 'Northern diplomacy', 'One Korea Policy', why Park Geun-Hye decided to go to Tiananmen and why it looked quite successful at the first glance while in real term total failure. In fact, I was writing the whole story for an hour but somehow it's gone and I lost time to write again. Sorry. Instead, I would like to make three quick points. First, yeah, Park Guen-Hye was so incompetent that she couldn't explain what is her policy goal of the engagement policy to China. She had a reason, and the reason was the containment of the North. But she failed to explain sufficiently it to her American counterpart. Second, the Obama administration neglected the North Korea issue under the name of 'strategic patience,' but actually, it was not a strategy, but just neglecting there is a problem. There were plenty of chances to prevent Kim in the North from achieving nuclear weapon and missile capability, Obama, clearly under the advisory of Biden, simply ignored it. The Obama administration reacted North Korean issue only after it became clear North Korea achieve a nuclear weapon that is capable to strike the US base in Korea. The final point is that the Obama administration actually didn't care about the alliance. Three evidence here. For one, Yonpyeng bombardment. North Korea obviously targeted and hit the South Korean civilians. What the Obama administration did just to issue a statement of contamination. They put more effort to deter Lee Myung-Bak administration react to North Korean provocation. Second, THAAD deployment. The controversial THAAD system was deployed not to defend the US ally but to defend the US military base. Third, the US reaction to Chinese retaliation to THAAD deployment. The first reaction was the statement from the State Department in March 2017. Chinses clearly said they will retaliate and the retaliation began in 2016. OK, it was the election year so the Obama administration would be too busy to issue a single statement. But the US side could have had plenty of opportunities to persuade the Chinese that the system does not damage their interest, but they didn't. They even didn't care what was happening to its ally who was working together with the US to defend the US base with the US military items. I expect Biden presidency would be similar to that of Obama. I've already collected several clues to support this expectation.
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  98.  @stevepoon6262  First, Chinese intervention in Korean war was Chinese leaders' decision. For China, it was not a proxy war. China actively interfered in Korea war and we all have watched president Xi Jinping's speech on the 70th anniversary of Chinese intervention in Korean war. Are you arguing that Mao was just Stalin's puppet at that time?? China was not victim. Second, none of Joint Command of the UN army is aiming at Shandong, including surveillance asset while Chinese assets are. And if you have close reading on the alliance treaty between China and North Korea, China will interfere in Korean affairs immediately if there is military conflict. And whenever North Korean provoke the South, China has voiced for Kim in the North. Third, you mistake Moon as neutral. He has been just hedging between China and the US. Americans agreed that it would be better for both Korea and the US to allow South Korea to play hedging tactics because it will provide the ROKUS alliance with broader diplomatic space. If you don't trust me, you should check several articles from Councils for Foreign Relations. President Moon, even though I don't like him, but I can confidently say he is Pro-Alliance. He is foolish and stupid, but not that much as failing to understand the value of the ROKUS alliance. Forth, Chian already intervened inter-Korean affairs, while South Korea has tried to respect One-China-Principle. China doesn't respect One-Korea-Principle. They have recognised both Koreas. Intervenes inter-Korean affairs and does not play a constructive role. Blackmails whenever Seoul try to retaliate Pyongyang's provocation such as Yoenpyong bombardment in 2010. China already has meddled in inter-Korean affairs so I firmly believe we have a good reason to have a voice in Taiwan-China issue. Finally, my concern on Chinese expansionist ambition does not come from the Western media. The Western scholars and media, in fact, do not make such propaganda. For example, Prof. Westad from Yale argued our concern over Chinese having such "profound, secret, well-planed intention" is outdated. But I arrived at this conclusion from Chinese rhetoric. Even today I found a number of Chinese, in Chinese website, in Chinese language, using their interpretation on Chinese history(especially using Han and Tang era), argued that China has a legislative territorial claim on two-third of Korean peninsula including Seoul. (I was just searching for how Chinese understand Sui Yangdi) And I personally met some Chinese who criticise Koreans of being "separationists" who exploit the US intervention to be independent from China. And many Koreans still remember Chinese diplomats language and behaviours. Especially we have not forgotten the name of Chinese diplomat Chen Hai. He called us, in a very insulting way, a small nation that must obey whatever great China demands. We also haven't forgotten Xi Jinping said we used to be a part of China. I don't believe that every single Chinese have such ambition: I have Chinese friends who mutually respect our differences and enjoy our similarities. But at least some hyper-nationalist Chinese, probably including somebody at the decision-making level, seems to have expansionist ambition. That would be the reason the CCP educates the Chinese public in that way.
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  100.  @JWPanimation  You are talking too much again. It is true that many people imagine the unified Korean peninsula as a powerhouse in the region. Well, they say, just as you said, South Korean soft power. But, first, would it have been really a matter in international politics? The allies of the US have chosen to maintain the alliance with the US not because they love Hollywood movies but because they saw Uncle Sam's hard muscle. Furthermore, preference changes from time to time. The international audiences may prefer Korean drama or pop music today, but no one knows how it will be in the next year or next decade. Finally, South Koreans understand how their entertainment industry got succeeded on the international stage: they got American platforms' patronage. Could have Parasite, Squid Game or Pachinko have been successful without Netflix or Apple+? We are sceptical about it. Likewise, how about South Korean technology? The first thing anyone who tries to closely look at South Korean industrialisation is that Seoul's developmentalist behaviour has been possible because Washington acquiesced to it. Access to American technology is one of these acquiescence. Now China seems to reach the point South Korean economy reached around the 1990s. At that time American policymakers (especially Clinton administration) put pressure on South Korean side (Kim Young-sam administration) to push Seoul to adjust its mercantilist behaviour. Such pressure campaign keeps carrying our even today (think about Trump administration), but generally American policymakers show some generosity over their Asian ally. What would have happened to South Koreans if the US did something they had done for the rise of Chinese technology? Could South Koreans maintain their competitiveness in technology without scientists and mechanics educated and trained in the US? All in all, South Korea could not be a powerhouse in the region. It is where the US power projection to the region is multiplied. Some pundits from the Asian Group or Councils on Foreign Relations have argued that some of the demerits South Korean have today, for example, demographic problem, would be solved by integrating the North Korean population into the South Korean economy. But they missed that the North has demographic problems too. And it would be not easy to integrate the North Korean population who have lived under such an insane regime in isolation into the South Korean society. We can expect there must be chaos and turmoil in the earlier stage of the unification from the cases of North Korean defectors in the South. South Korea's hypocrisy and discrimination against North Korean defectors are not a joke. Even expressing support for the Third Unification of the peninsula could be a reason of being criticised. This is my daily experience of being offended by my own close friends whenever I say "we need the Third Unification" Anyhow, thank you for your warm interest in Korean issue. Looking forward to having another discussion with you in the future, as we have done so in this channel.
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  111.  @dphuntsman  Well.... I just told what I saw. First, export control is not going anywhere. It will still be there. Nishimura Yasutoshi, Japan's Trade and Industry Minister, stated that "(Japan) has not removed export control(措置を解除したわけではない)," according to Mainichi. I could not check in Japanese report yet, but some Korean media mentioned a report from Japan’s Kyodo News that Yasutoshi also said removing export control is an issue for further discussions and depending on Seoul's stance. Second, domestic politics in both countries. It's a really complicated issue, especially if you are not familiar with both countries. This is because the two nations have totally different views of not only each other but of the whole region. I wish I could deal with this issue in this limited space but it would be too long to address here. One of the visible outcome to Yoon Yoon Suk Yeol, the South Korean president's summit with Kishida Fumio, Japanese Prime Minister, is that the approval of Yoon's presidency is falling. I assume that this is not only due to the summit, but also there are several domestic issues such as labour hours and political infight within the ruling party. But Japan issue clearly takes a large portion of the fall. According to at least two polling conducted by Gallop Korea and RealMeter, around 60 percent of the respondents said they oppose Yoon's proposal to solve the "forced labour issue" during WWII by Imperial Japan(which Japan does not recognise as forced labour and refused to pay the compensation). And there are several rumours that something like "Japan raised the territorial claims Dok-do/Takeshima during the summit" or "Kishida demanded Seoul to import fishery products from Fukushima" which Korean consumers are worried about the possibility of being polluted by the nuclear plant incident in 2011. So, it seems that the damage to Yoon's presidency is at the begging for now. And the National Assembly, South Korean Legislative branch, is dominated by opposition parties. Without any significant positive response from Tokyo, Korean domestic politics, by South Korean public's anger and animosity to Yoon will lead to another impeachment (highly unlikely yet), the opposition camps' dictating the National Assembly after defeat in the next general election (likely), or change in the government who has deep-seated interest to try to null Yoon's legacy (highly likely). Several responses from Japan may be able to prevent these scenarios from happening. The top of the list would be Japan's abandoning the territorial claim over the rock called Dok-do/Takeshima. This issue is more than just a territorial issue. Koreans tend to think that this is related to Japan's stance to reluctant to recognise South Korea as an independent sovereign power but treat it as their former colony. This was part of a proposal called "Grand Bargain" suggested by several American pundits such as Scot Snyder, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at CFR, during the Obama administration, but Japanese domestic politics will not allow it to happen. One of the other candidates would be something like Japan's inviting South Korea into the QUAD separately suggested by Christopher Johnstone, the Japan chair at the CSIS, or Ishii Masafumi, a retired Japanese diplomat and professor at Tokyo's Gakushuin University. But I'm not sure whenever I look into Japanese domestic politics. Kishida's premiership is not strong enough to maintain it. He needs many allies within his party. Some of his allies, such as Hayashi Yoshimasa, the incumbent Foreign minister, or probably Kono Taro, the former Foreign Minister and now current Digital minister, might agree with deepening corporation with Seoul. But others, especially from so-called "far-right" groups who are more important to Kishda, will oppose it and insist Kishida need to demand more from Seoul. So I predict Kishima may try to offer an olive branch to Seoul by inviting G7 meeting in his home constituency Hiroshima, but that would be the best thing he could do. I just briefly overviewed some visible elements of this issue. But this is more complicated than I presented here, there is a history of at least more than a century. It is not as simple as Ian said in this video.
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  134. Hostility against China among the Korean young generation(particularly in 2030s) is CRAZILY high, while many in the middle age group(4050s), the stronghold for the Moon's administration, are in favour of China. It means that it is not sustainable to maintain the balancing strategy of the Moon's administration on China. Pro-China and anti-US sentiment among the Korean public is destined to fall as the hostility against China to up. Since the current government is quite or sometimes even silencing some critics on Chinese government behaviour, the suppressed opinion is becoming to be stronger and stronger. For example, it is actually reported that some of the youngsters from the liberal or progressive camps(where have been traditionally in favour of China) have turned against the Korean democrats after they found that their voices of supporting Hong Kong protesters were silenced. So the internal dynamics of Korean politics will not allow the current balancing policy to survive in the future. And it will reach a flashpoint anytime soon. The Moons' administration's behaviour is just to try to deter the doom day coming. I'm usually a critic of Moon's government policies, but I think it would be worth to mention on the different condition between Korea and Australia: the proximity. We are too close to China. Take an example scenario of military conflict against China, because the extreme thought experiment sometimes helps make differences clear. As far as I know, Australian political strategists have some plans for the situation any military conflict against China takes place and they are mostly about supporting the US navy in various sorts of skirmish around the South China sea. Koreans' are different. If we join in any military conflict against China on the side of the US, it means total war. We have no doubt the alliance will win, but also massive destruction and sacrifices would follow as well. Historically the Yellow sea has functioned as a great moat between the Chinese continent and the Korean peninsula, just as the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans has been for the US for centuries. But it does not any more, thank to the development of technology. So, in this case of thought experiment, Koreans needs a huge scale of American support, things like somethings Americans had done during the last Korean war. Similarly, even in the sort of economic and political cases against China, Seoul needs any kind of US support in the full-scale, which Washington will rarely provide. Seoul trust Washington will help them in the total war scenario but not in economic and diplomatic conflict. They already found the evidence during the THAAD crisis. Since Chinese punishment over the deployment of the THAAD system launched, the Obama administration actually did nothing and then Trump even demanded more burden-sharing cost from ROK while the punishment still stays. That's why both so-called conservative Park and so-called liberal Moon have played 'flattering Xi-da-da' card so long. Even though Beijing kept punishing Seoul, but the scale could have been minimalised. Have a look at what the US had done for Australians when Beijing punished Canberra by boycotting or cutting Australians' soybeans and beef, coals etc. Did Washing buy those things? No. What the Trump administration did was, instead, to make a deal with Beijing.
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  137. @xmr7 pt95 Sorry again but let's be realistic. Geopolitics in the east Asia has completely changed since the advance of the US in the 19th century. Due to developments in transportation technology, the world becomes more compacted than before, which means other regional powers like India, Russia, and more importantly, the US become able to play power balancing card. And now it is no more secret that Korean peninsula is significantly important when you are playing power balancing card against China. One of the good examples is American military presence in the South Korea. China may have some economic influence on Korea but it cannot overwhelm American's hard power in Korea. Next, Koreans also want to contain China and restrict Chines influence. We have always wanted it throughout history. Chan Pasado Polska might have well understand this desire to contain strong neighbor. The trajectory of the current Korean administration illustrates this really well. President Moon has shown his favour of Chinese big brother and hatred against Japan and Uncle Sam. He even promised three 'No's to China publicly. Now he has been in the power three years and what he have done? Nothing. The THAAD system still operates, GISOMIA which is the cornerstone of the US-Korea-Japan military triad is still alive, and even Korea is going to join in missile defense system led by the US military. It is not because Republic of Korea is a satellite state or military colony of the US, as some people (especially supporters of Kim in the north) believe. You can see more and more President Moon pursues improving tie with China lower and lower he gets approval rates. So, if Beijing wields its influence to control Korea, Korean public will force politicians to cut off the relationship with Beijing, formalise its relationship with Taiwan. To sum up, China may have some influence on Korea, but it is not so much decisive.
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  138. @xmr7 pt95 "20 years in future where China will surpass US in economic, military and technological advancements" my point is that it will not happen because other regional players will not tolerate the rise of China. When the US was growing, the UK was obsessed with containing Napoleon in Europe continent. When the British empire found they had to balance the US during the Civil war, they noticed that it was too late. There was an obstacle for the British empire to play power balancing card at a proper moment: European peer competitors. By contrast, The US has no such geopolitical shackle. And they are reacting now. Thus, before China overwhelming the US in all of those three sectors, the US will do, more precisely, is already doing whatever they want to do without any meaningful hindrance. China is not going to be able to control it. For example, what will happen if the US navy blockade the Persian gulf, Malacca strait? These are just a moderate level of economic cards the US can play at least coming two decades and seem to be destructive to the economy of the People's Republic of China. One more point I will make. If there is any sign that the US is going to be surpassed by China who keeps trying to control Korea, Koreans will necessarily develop their own nuclear means as Kim in the north has done. Unlike Kim, just one year would be sufficient to complete it. I know it may sound crazy but 'Korea as nuclear power' has been Koreans long-held insane dream for the last seven decades. The US has been a shackle of it. Therefore, even if Beijing could surpass Washington within the next two decades, Beijing would not have been able to free to order Seoul to do whatever the CCP wants. Anyhow, it is quite interesting to see trying to ignore the current situation while drawing the future two decades later- that is not REALISTIC.
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  147. On January 6th, when I watched the mob flooded into the Capitol like vomit on Youtube across the Pacific, sorry Americans, I just laughed, saying, 'Look! Even Americans, the oldest republic on the Earth, doing that too!' And I told my friends that the US will suffer from the political turmoil caused by it and had to have some time to back to the ordinary politics, at least for weeks or even one or two months. I predicted a sort of civil war could break out in which Democrats may try to slaughter all the Republicans and Republicans punch back. And several hours later, I watched American journalists reporting about the Capitol raid and felt something I did expect from them. Well, you can get disappointed or frustrated when you see the political situation of your country going mad. But what I believe I saw from the face of one journalist was shamefulness. He looked as if he lost his own home country. While watching the reporting in my room, I shouted. 'Come on, man! A bunch of stupids just trespassed on a public building. It has happened in any other country! The member of parliament or national assembly in these countries even physically battled against each other!" I thought something must be going in a way I haven't thought about. The very next day morning, I came to read an article on the behaviour of Andrew Kim, a new member of the House of Representatives. The story was he helped clean up the Capitol. I was shocked again for two reasons. First, his action, at least in my view, was looked as if he got traumatised, just like a mad man looking up a shining stone for his dead son somewhere else. Second, the fact that he was allowed to enter the Capitol meant the ordinary institutional procedure already restored: I was completely wrong. There was no slaughtering. Nor civil war. The military kept politically neutral, just like the true guardians of the state in Plato's Republic. A month later, after completing my reflection on the Capitol sack, I reached a kind of conclusion. Before the incident, I thought Americans always exaggerate the resilience of their system, and the USA is not exceptional. Frankly speaking, I still have some complaints and criticism of the US. Some of Biden's policy, the dog fight in Republicans etc, etc. But now, I think, given their resilience and constitutional structure, the United States of America may be exceptional. And we, the Republic of Korea, should remain as its treaty ally and have some lessons from its constitutional experience (we are not going to copy it, since we are in different condition to the US. But there must be some wisdom we can learn.)
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  153. Jean Lee only got the opinions from South Korean elites who have put their financial asset so much on China while the young generation and the public does not. Ian Bremmer's young South Korean acquaintances are outdated. Just look at the public poll. South Korean cannot choose not because of the reason Jean Lee said but because we had already made their decision: we are going to be with our ally. Why? Because you cannot enjoy financial benefits from China if you are dead! Have a look at what kinds of crazy stories Chinese propaganda machines is producing today. Go and read Xi Jinping's speech for the 70th anniversary of the Chinese Volunteer Army's intervention in "The War to Resist America and Aid Korea" and have a watch to Chinese propaganda movie Changing and some of the Chinese public's nationalist reaction. What do you expect from South Koreans, in particular, younger South Koreans when they watch all of these? Welcoming? Indifference? Or what? Chinese elites have disgraced us by calling us "a small nation which cannot refuse the great nation demand" and hindered us, laugh at our loss of lives during the war, mocked our gains from international audiences, scorned our nation, thwarted our reunification, cooled our kin blood both in the North and China, heated Kim's regime to invade the South. And what was the reason? Just as Odd Arne Westad's recent research "Empire and Righteous Nation: 600 Years of China-Korea Relations" concluded, today's China does not see the Republic of Korea as a genuine and sovereign independent power. Since Li Hongzhang, Chinese leaders have not seen Korea in the way. They see us as a potential colony since then. Thus, naturally, the idea of decoupling from China is, in a sense, dangerously popular, especially among the younger generation. China is not a reliable market, Chinese business leaders are reluctant to invest in South Korea except when they want to extort South Korean technology, they don't open their labour market to South Korean youngsters just as Japanese does, and above all, Chinese leaders have always defended Kim in the North whenever Kim provoke attacks against the South which always led to South Korean casualties. The financial future is exaggerated, and the security risk is too high to swallow.
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  191. I'm really pessimistic the summit will reset the relationship between two American allies in Asia. In particular, domestic politics in both countries will ruin this last opportunity in this decade to bring two nations together. It's a complicated issue because the two nations have totally different views of each other and the whole region. But I'm not going to deal with this in detail and rather will focus on the outcome we would likely see in the foreseeable future. One visible outcome of Yoon Yoon Suk Yeol, the South Korean president's summit with Kishida Fumio, Japanese Prime Minister, is that the approval of Yoon's presidency is falling after the summit. I assume that this is not only due to the summit but also several domestic issues such as labour hours and political infight within the ruling party. But Japan issue clearly takes a large portion of the fall. According to at least two polling conducted by Gallup Korea and RealMeter, around 60 percent of the respondents said they oppose Yoon's proposal to solve the "forced labour issue" during WWII by Imperial Japan(which Japan does not recognise as forced labour and refuses to pay the compensation). And there are several rumours that something like "Japan raised the territorial claims Dok-do/Takeshima during the summit" or "Kishida demanded Seoul to import fishery products from Fukushima," which Korean consumers are worried about the possibility of being polluted by the nuclear plant incident in 2011. So, the damage to Yoon's presidency seems to be at the begging now. And the National Assembly, South Korean Legislative branch, is dominated by opposition parties. Without any significant positive response from Tokyo, Korean domestic politics, by South Korean public's anger and animosity to Yoon will lead to another impeachment (highly unlikely yet), the opposition camps' dictating the National Assembly after defeat in the next general election (likely), or change in the government who has deep-seated interest to try to null Yoon's legacy (highly likely). Several responses from Japan may be able to prevent these scenarios from happening. The top of the list would be Japan's abandoning the territorial claim over the rock called Dok-do/Takeshima. This issue is more than just a territorial issue. Koreans tend to think that the problem is related to Japan's stance to reluctant to recognise South Korea as an independent sovereign power but treat it as their former colony. This was part of a proposal called "Grand Bargain" suggested by several American pundits such as Scot Snyder, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at CFR, during the Obama administration. Still, Japanese domestic politics will not allow it to happen. One of the other candidates would be something like Japan's inviting South Korea into the QUAD, separately suggested by Christopher Johnstone, the Japan chair at the CSIS, or Ishii Masafumi, a retired Japanese diplomat and professor at Tokyo's Gakushuin University. But I'm not sure whenever I look into Japanese domestic politics. Kishida's premiership is not strong enough to maintain it. He needs many allies within his party. Some of his allies, such as Hayashi Yoshimasa, the incumbent Foreign minister, or probably Kono Taro, the former Foreign Minister and current Digital minister, might agree with deepening corporation with Seoul. But others, especially from so-called "far-right" groups more important to Kishda, will oppose it and insist Kishida demand more from Seoul. So inviting Yoon to the G7 meeting in his home constituency Hiroshima is the best thing Kishida could do. The situation in Seoul is worsening every day. Just yesterday, Yoon's top foreign policy advisor resigned with a lot of rumours about the event. The unusual resignation and the rumour surrounding it would be, by themselves, problematic. But the fact that they have emerged matters. The emergence of the rumours shows that the South Korean public is losing their trust in Yoons' presidency. Today, a poll by Gallup Korea says that public approval of Yoon's presidency dropped to 30 percent, declined 4 percentage points from the last week. I just briefly overviewed some visible elements of this issue. But this is more complicated than I presented here. There is a history of at least more than a century.
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  194.  @tz7710  I agree with your assessment of Japanese economic presence across the world. But have to point out some points you have made. First, Japanese experience. Japanese are in general not interested in the outside of the Japanese archipelago. Of course, Japanese diplomats and bureaucrats are really well-informed and competitive, but their superiority complex from their past experience of invasion and colonisation over some parts of Asia including China often makes them blinded to the reality. Japanese experience over China? well, it is hard to rely on, in my opinion. If their experience since the Meiji restoration has real lessons from history, why has their diplomacy to two Koreas so desperately failed? Second, Quad. the Quad is brain-dead because it has too many different voices within. I really don't know if there is any meaningful achievement by the Quad. Japan and India are in the same bed with Americans but having totally different dreams. My explanation of the Quad's braindead is that both Japan and India are not interested in containment but rather engagement, as we see their real behaviour. I'm not much sure about Indian case, but pretty sure about the Japanese. If you have a close look at Japanese expert who has advised and who are advising Japanese policymakers, someone like Kanehara Nobukatsu, the National Security advisor to Japanese former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, you will find that their real goal is not to form security architecture in Asia, but economic network to boost Japanese economy by exploiting American's security concern in the region. So the Quad is not working for containment of China because its two members are not interested in it. That's why American had to build AUKUS to replace Quad. Third, Japanese military capability. Sorry, it's fantasy. One of the best examples is, ironically, South Korean's reaction to Japan's military budget boost. First, Article 9 of the Japanese pacifist constitution is still alive. Even though LDP's lawmakers who allied with Shinzo Abe tried to amend it, the best thing they could do was to enact some laws to allow Japanese defence industry to export their equipment. No increase in military units, no increase in service personnel. South Korean did not oppose president Yoon's olive branch to Japan not because they thought Japan shares values with them, but because they now found that Japan could not be a threat to them in the foreseeable future. They have no capacity to do something. Japan has tried to build the finest military equipment like planes and tanks. But all the efforts were, for Koreans, seen as wasting budget and time to buy nationalist ego. And Japanese have only a small amount of ammunition, just as we have seen throughout the war in Ukraine. Were there any supplements of ammunition by Japan?? But, if you argue that Japan is one of the most important US allies, I fully agree with that. Not because of Japanese consultation, not because of Japanese military capacity, but because of Japanese geography. First, taking Japanese Archipelago is crucial for American to dominate all over the Pacific Ocean. Second, America's military presence in Japan allows the US to project their influence into the Indo-Pacific region incredibly easily. It's undeniable. And here comes why the Korean peninsula matters. The Korean peninsula is essential to protect Japan, and an independent sovereign nation-state in the peninsula makes a buffer room between two Asian great powers, China and Japan. Then, why aren't American leaders pushing Japanese to protect themselves and manage the complicated issues about the peninsula of hellfire, just as Mr Trump tried to do so in a sense? Because American leaders do not trust Tokyo 100%.
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  195. @UCW3EGYvg47Mzho_XK0irCaA Look. I didn't say Chinese always do bad things and must be blamed for everything. What I said was people do such and such things in such and such situations. There is high tension between different classes and different nationals. Naturally employers and employees have tension. Foreign investors and local communities have tension. From the start China has been assumed to support the coup which caused large number of deaths in local. Then China vetoed to engage to prevent military from killing more people in the United Nations Security Council. The decision must have been made for different reason but Beijing didn't explain it sufficiently just as they always do. People are already in turmoil and situation is perilous due to massive killing by it's own military, so that it makes precise thinking nearly impossible. Then one Chinese business owner brought security and killed Myanmar workers. In the night, somebody set on fire on Chinese-owned or Chinese-funded factories. Next day, Chinese authority demanded protecting Chinese interests in the region while its state-owned media keeping talking only about money caused by the damage. And then, as if it is an attempt to meet the Chinses request, historical massive shot-and-kill took place next day. All of these events, I believe, would not be related. It might be Myanmar worders who started to be violent first. Those who set on fire might not be workers or who got angry about the Chinese owner, just some Myanmar protesters claimed it must be military-backed-gangs and military ordered it to justify the use of violence. But people as human beings in such a harsh situation tend to believe those events are connected, and find it hard to distinguish individuals, such as evil employer and just another foreign investors. They just looks the same. That's why I said 'not purely innocent' since 'some' of them would do something. And why China becomes a scapegoat here? Because of Chinese politicians who refuse to take any responsibility while do not care where and to whom they are investing and bring about some changes which often damage local minority. And because of some 'patriotic' internet wolf warriors who ignore what's going on and why such a bad mood took formed while keeping playing just victimhood card and 'respect great China' card. I kept saying not everything is Chinses fault. But even China makes terrible mistakes and damages someone's life, just like others. But the problem is, Chinese authorities never recognise their faults and just keep talking about money and their exceptional prestige. This is not the way of building friendship and mutual understanding. Rather, it is the best way to feed hostility. I would like to end by adding that this unnecessarily long comment is not criticism but advice. This is about something like longterm goal. The arson and violence didn't take place just within days. It has it's own long history and context. Sinophobic (yes, it is something all of us must expel from our life!) as well. We must altogether take these seriously. In such a hope, I leave this unnecessarily wordy comment here. But I have become pessimistic day by day.
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  202.  @MuhammedChand  To be honest, I have thought about whether we just skip Tokyo 2020 or other alternatives are available. My conclusion is that it is structurally impossible to cancel Tokyo 2020. It's already not up to the government of Japan or Tokyo. The IOC will not accept the cancellation because too many sports community's vital interests is tied to it. And for the athletes from developing nations, as we see in this documentary, there would be not so much difference between staying in their home country and going to the Olympics (for some it might be even better to go to Japan rather than staying in their home). And let's assume that somehow we magically managed to cancel Tokyo 2020. Then who will pay for the all costs related to the preparation of the Olympics? The international community could mutually share the financial burden? Or the government of Japan and Tokyo will unilaterally take all the cost of it abandoning everything? Well, I think both are unrealistic. From the beginning of this pandemic, I have argued that the best option for the Olympics was to delay every game for the next four years. But Beijing and Paris won't accept it. Both have some reasons to host Olympic games respectively in 2022 and 2024. Thus, for the structural reason, Tokyo 2020 is unavoidable. Then, since it is unavoidable, the best alternative which is available for us would be to maximise the deterrence to the spread of the virus during the Olympic games and to strengthen international cooperation such as supporting vaccination for the athletes, providing protective gear, etc.
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  210. The two things Peter has said in this video Brits also know them very well. Actually, Brexits was about them. First, they tried to resurrect the economic empire called the Common Wealth. But generations have passed, and the death of the Queen has plainly shown that the personal ties with former colonies inherited from the colonial period have now completely gone away. Then they tried to join the TPP, Trans-Pacific Partnership, while not in the Pacific. Well, Japanese, while rejecting Koreans' joining the group, welcomed Brits somehow. Unfortunately, however, the UK is too far away from the Pacific to enjoy the benefits of the group. Second, yeah, Brits have always talked about industrial policy. Brexiteers complained about the European Union's tight regulations which they believed it was hindering them from boosting their deindustrialization. Brit wanted to replicate technological innovation that had happened in the Industrial Revolution and hoped the Astra Zeneca vaccine could be the poster boy of it. But Both Theresa May and Boris Johnson were incapable of making it happen, and Liz Truss... Oh my Lord oh my God. She is yelling she saved the West, but in fact, what she had done was just giving a finishing bow to the UK economy. Conservatives managed to drag Truss out of Downing Street before the lettuce had wilted and replace her with Sunak. But it was already too late and Sunak was just as incapable as his former boss, Johnson. Will Britain successfully or partially avoid the grim fate Peter predicted in this video? Well......
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  212. I do believe China already possesses the cultural capacity to display collaboration of its modern innovation and cultural heritage in a sophisticated way. I have played some mobile games from Shanghai China, such as Girl's Frontline or Arkknight. And I even cannot forget when I got to know Girl's Frontline. It completely changed my view on the modern Chinese entertainment culture. Some of my friends underestimate saying that it's just a gun-version-copy of Kan-kore or B-rank SF, but I and my comrades who play it found certain genuinity and cultural attractiveness from it. And even though I haven't watched it but I was also struck by the promotion video of Youth(2017). Its message and theme were so impressive that I become really eager to watch it (just I don't know where I get it). It is hard to neglect Chinese drama, especially dramas based on Chinese ancient and medieval history, such as King's War, The Advisors Alliance, and Growling Tiger, Roaring Dragon. They are historically incorrect in some parts(especially the way The Advisors Alliance set historical events are not correct). Some may raise the scandal issue of the actor who played the protagonist (I mean Wu Xiubo). Others can say their CG quality is terrible. But I would like to say, as a drama, the method these dramas developed their narrative and discourse was outstanding. For these reasons from my own experience, I am firmly convinced that China already has potentiality as a soft powerhouse. But the problem is, I think, it does and it will remain as the only potentiality for now, and in the foreseeable future.
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  218. @someperson8649 It's me who should be worried about whether I did some offence toward you. If you've felt so, I'm really sorry. Anyhow, regarding the stereotype of the "big-nose Yankee," it's not clear where exactly such a stereotype has come from. As far as I know, the term 'Ko-jaeng-yi (코쟁이.. It literally means a guy with a big nose')' was quite commonly used in South Korea. We can find it in some literature from the 1960s. As far as I remember, some old people still used the term in 1990 when I spent most of my childhood. Interestingly, the term was mainly used to refer to Americans. I think this was because Americans, particularly politicians, diplomats, business leaders, scholars, Christian missionaries or military personnel, were the foreign group most frequently exposed to Korea at that period. And most of them were somehow Caucasian males. And somehow, again, there was a stereotype that Caucasians are big-nosed. We don't know when it was derived. It may be imported from Japan or China. For example, we can find the term 'Daebi-Dalja(대비달자)' was introduced to Koreans in the 17th century. This 'Daebi-Dalja' is a Korean version of the pronunciation of Chinse word '大鼻㺚子,' which means 'big nose barbarian,' originally referring to Tartar or Cossack. In 17th century Korea, the term was used to refer to Russians, who employed Cossacks in the border conflict with the Chinese Qing empire. But I cannot find this expression in 18th or 19th-century literature. So quite sceptical. Maybe the term independently originated in 19th-century Korea. Koreans at that time may have thought that the most distinctive physical feature of 'Westerners' was a 'big nose' So they might have invented the expression by themselves. Whatever the origin of the term would be, the term 'Kojaengyi' must have a negative sentiment. Because the Korean suffix '-jaengyi' is used to mean a guy with a certain characteristic in a quite negative way. For example, 'Gupjaengyi(겁쟁이)' is literally a guy with a lot of fear(겁), which means a coward. It seems that the term 'Kojaengyi' is rarely used in South Korea today. At least, the younger generation may not know this expression. For example, several months ago, I was asked what kojaengyi means. The guy asked the question had heard the word from an old lady who saw a group of foreign tourists. "It's kojaengyi, it's kojengyi!' He said he had no idea.
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