Comments by "C H" (@crhu319) on "Orban prepares for battle. Soros hates Putin. Biden pretends to bankrupt Russia. Update 1" video.
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3:50 I've been calling the Phase 3 for a while: Poland, Hungary, Romania allantsy about huge refugee inflows and starting to make serious moves to reclaim lost oblasts from the failed Nazi state in Kyiv and Lviv.
The countries seem to be following VERY different strategies to this.
Romania is very loudly supporting Moldova and is strutting while NOT allowing threats to Transnistria (the future Russian border). South Bessarabia is 30% Romanian and attached to Odessa oblast only by one Black Sea bridge (now destroyed) and Transnistria bridge (easily destroyed if used for arms). It's by far the most sensitive situation so I bet there are very quiet negotiations with Romania to be sure that South Bessarabia is disarmed somehow so Russian ships can reach Transnistria worrying only about Odessa side. Expect Romania & Moldova to settle refugees in this reclaimed land, but part of the deal may be leaving NATO.
Poland took in more refugees than anyone else, and declared "no border" which means they will take Gallicia any day now and likely give Polish citizenship to Zelenskyy cronies. It's ideal for Russia if Poland takes the Bandera statue down & has to fight street Nazis as in 1943-45. When Ukro-Nazis genocided 77,000 Poles. Don't think Poles have forgotten. They are playing nice to get close and put the knife in, and Zelenskyy is helping them.
Hungary by contrast is more up front and clear in its desire not to confront Russia, and most muted about taking back the 10%-Hungarian Transcarpathia. This may be because it's human rights record was horrific there when it regained it in WW2. Jews in particular were genocided more thoroughly there than in areas under say Romanian control. Ruthenians were forced under the Ukrainian Orthodox church, and may prefer Hungary as well, but this area was part of Czechoslovakia briefly and autonomous as a third people (Ruthenians). I doubt Slovakia wants it.
So my guess is that Orban declares support for Transcarpathia autonomy, which was suppressed in 2014 by C14 Nazis. There were recent protests there by Ruthenians and Hungarians whose men were prejudicially sent to Donbas to die, maybe even also sent to Mariupol.
So Phase 3 is when these three currently NATO countries start grabbing back or supporting autonomy for oblasts in "west Ukraine" making Russia just one of FOUR countries doing that. At which point sanctions collapse totally, probably so does NATO, and likely the EU.
Germany may even ask for Silesia back from Poland, which would raise tensions sky high.
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