Comments by "Fox" (@tomlxyz) on "Was Evergrande A Ponzi Scheme?" video.

  1. I feel like you can take any company suddenly failing, any economic downturn, etc and find someone who "predicted" it but that doesn't necessarily mean they actually knew it. There are so many people making predictions that some just happen to be right, just as much as someone will win the lottery. The only way to prove one knew is to either check how many other of that person's predictions came right or how well the method used for the prediction works for other cases, both booms and busts
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  2. "it's quite strange that they needed to call him a professor as well" Because being an entrepreneur doesn't mean as much in China with all their frauds, and I guess historically speaking and still now knowledgeable people were/are held in high regards
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  3.  @AXE914  except that China is state capitalist, the label communist basically only fitting during Mao
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  4.  @kenxiong6830  what does that have to do with it? Does a corrupt government screw over people who short more than people who go long?
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  5. He was also right on GME, what happened with GME had nothing to do with the company itself
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  6. The problem of Evergrand came from the government cracking down on the bubble by restricting lending in real estate, making Evergrand unable to get loans at levels where the business can function. For me it seems the government wants to stop the bubble without it bursting, so there's little opportunity to short there. It might not go as the Chinese government plans but that is to unpredictable to bet on it
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  7. I hope those never exist. Just imagine bets piling up over 10 years and then suddenly everything has to be settled, that's just gonna fuck the market regularly. Besides, the price of such an option would probably exceed what you can make from it, given that the one selling you the option has to secure the position against the underlying for such a long time. Just think how few options such a seller is able to sell, they're gonna require a lot of money for those
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  8. "I think it's the largest property developer in China" How can he not be 100 % sure about such an important information about the company? Relative size matters when it comes to failing
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  9.  @Ambiguousaxolotl  you can never short if you're not sure about the financials.
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  10.  @samsonsoturian6013  "unprofessional and uneducated" + "my own research" sounds like a joke to me, with the "I warned y'all" adding to it
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  11. Where's the fraud? Amazon provides a platform for selling to delivery, a lot of its profits actually coming from its cloud computing
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  12. Become true or people forgetting about your prediction when they don't play out
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  13. I just imagined that if Apple actually survives 1000 years than there might be some sort of mysticism around Steve Jobs
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  14. If you don't short on time it's the same as being wrong when it comes to shorting
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  15. If you can't reasonably explain why you're not even right if it happens to go that way
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  16. Two possibilities Good intentions and trying to make people realize it earlier than later, seeing it inevitable any way. Bad intentions and just publishing when he sees it causing enough fear to crash the company, while not being sure if the company might turn it around on its own
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  17. Don't say that. When no one wants to short is shortly before a crash happens because then there are no buyers left
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  18. Hmm maybe but it doesn't look like it won't keep falling, especially if they default on their loan payments
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