Comments by "Gaza is not Amalek" (@Ass_of_Amalek) on "United Kingdom wants to create an alliance alternative to the EU." video.

  1. I think the way the war has so far played out was estimated by the russians to be so exceedingly unlikely that they didn't need to plan for or consider such details. they expected to win the war in a week or two. if they had, the sanctions would have been far weaker because there no longer would have been the purpose of supporting ukraine for the west to unite over. with the war won and the western will for sanctions smaller, russia also would have gotten more support from china to compensate for the lesser sanctions it would have experienced (and of course india would also have been even more eager). in fact this was almost explicitely publically promised at the olympics, and probably explicitely secretly promised by china with the announcement of the new "no limits partnership" between china and russia. russia based its decision to invade partially on a chinese promise that didn't get redeemed because the west brought too much pressure, which only happened because the war dragged on and russia mostly failed militarily. if russia had won within two weeks as intended, I believe that europe would ultimately have reduced russian energy imports by no more than 20% if at all, and nordstream 2 would probably enter service by the end of the year after everybody stopped giving a shit. I reckon what would still happen and what russia must have expected and accepted is the NATO membership of finland and sweden. so really, keeping NATO from expanding towards russia was always a ridiculous pretext for the invasion, since it was obvious that it would have the opposite effect. the benefit for china would have promarily been another humiliation for the west and likely weakening through disunity as a continuation of how the abandonment of afghanistan played out, which would have contributed a lot to setting the stage for a chinese invasion of taiwan.
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