Comments by "Andy Monaghan" (@229andymon) on "Military Summary" channel.

  1. Well, my guess is that if the Russians hadn’t decided to take the Odessa region before, they will have now.
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  2. Agreed. And let’s not forget the big chunk of Ukraine’s population that have left, I suspect many never to return.
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  3. Thanks for info. So (theoretically) if Texas decided to secede, and called for help to resist reincorporation, would China have a right to intervene, same as US does in the case of Taiwan?
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  4. So, if USA feels it has the right to militarily intervene on behalf of Taiwan if China decides to take Taiwan back under Chinese control, would Americans accept that China has the right to militarily intervene on behalf of Texas?
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  5.  @Tonyx.yt.  Here in UK we help such people settle, making it an even easier decision not to return. I suspect it’s the same in many other places. I know of one couple near us and the man has said he won’t go back because he’ll end up drafted. I’m not blaming him, incidentally, it’s an understandable POV.
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  6. Are there any reports on UKR and Russians losses during the last couple of weeks? I’m assuming UKR must have suffered huge losses, both human and material.
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  7. I can imagine people questioning political leadership being called traitors and enemies. I (as a Scottish independence supporter) have just been called this by the British prime minister.
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  8. The US has the Monroe Doctrine, but they have decided Russia can’t have one.
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  9.  @edthebumblingfool  Technically, the nukes belonged to the USSR, not Ukraine. A parallel could be drawn if/when Scotland becomes independent. In that case UKs entire nuclear arsenal would be located in an independent Scotland. Would it therefore belong to Scotland?
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  10. It’s logical to assume that, the more inevitable an anti-Russia Ukraine will emerge post-war that has security arrangements with the West, the more motivated Russia will be to ensure that Ukraine is as less of a threat to it as possible.
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  11. What is the Russian’s ultimate objective? The 4 provinces it has annexed, those plus Odessa, everything east of the Dniepr, all of Ukraine? I don’t see much speculation on that.
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  12. Indeed, this war seems to be a combination of WW1 and Star Wars.
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  13. He also said Brexit was a good idea.
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  14. I reckon that could only happen if NATO allow it to. If Poland attack Russia, and are the acknowledged aggressors in that case, that would conflict with article 1 of the NATO constitution whereby members - "settle any international disputes in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security, and justice, are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations."
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  15.  @seanh4841  Yeah, imposing trade restrictions on our biggest and most important trade partner by a country mile. Genius move..!
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  16. If NK troops are thrown into this conflict, what’s to stop Polish troops entering on the side of Ukraine?
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  17. From now, if any nation wants military assistance from USA, they’ll have to get a quote first. Well, with one exception.
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  18. If the Russians had decided to lure Ukrainian forces into a trap, would there be a more likely location for that than the east bank of the Dniepr?
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  19.  @agnes6585  Bannockburn will never be forgotten. Mr Sunack will be forgotten in 2 months.
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  20. I'll tell you what's really incredible. The West so fears that "superpower" they have allied themselves in NATO against it, with many Euro nations now spending far more on their militaries and more nations joining. We are meant to believe that a nation with less than half the population of USA, with a GDP smaller than Italy's and which is struggling to beat Ukraine is a terrifying threat to the whole of Europe. What an absurd notion.
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  21.  @Mylogcabin  I wish I could believe you, but the Brexit damage is already happening. Ask any Brit company trying to export to the EU. Brexit is proof even entire countries can act like village idiots.
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  22.  @seanh4841  That he does, in fact he’s an Olympic level bollocks talker. No sense, but top drawer bollocks. Pity this country needs sense and not bollocks, we’ve far too little of the first and far too much of the second.
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  23.  @fumbles216  No it’s not dumb at actually. I raised a theoretical point, I’m not seriously anticipating Civil War 2 in the US. Let’s be completely honest here, if any part of the US called on any place in the world to help it secede, or even do anything significant against the union, Washington would crush such a move without hesitation or feeling any need to even explain itself. If such a move involved a nation that US considers a direct threat and an enemy, I doubt it would feel restrained to resort to all out world war. But it expects China to accept that the US has some kind of right to militarily intervene in the case that an internationally accepted (inc by US) part of China decides to secede. It’s called hypocrisy.
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  24.  @fumbles216  Another example. I’m a supporter of Scottish independence. In the event that we decide to secede (which I hope is actually going to happen) and the Brits decide we’re to be prevented from doing so (again not unlikely) if we call on the US for help against London - we can rely on you, right?
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  25. Do you think the Russians intend to take Odessa?
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  26.  @semenivanoff8615  give me one reason why….
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  27.  @banjo1434  The fairies. Since you appear to live in fairyland. Germany deindustrialise? What else, the Americans want to rejoin the Empire, the Soviet Union gets the band back together? Weather good on your planet?
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  28.  @3dwardcullen69  (Objective) evidence…?
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  29.  @JuanKuzov  see my answer 17 hours ago.
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  30.  @jusupdjidjimidjimilovic3677  I disagree that no one ever wants US help. As I mention above, I’m a supporter of Scottish independence, and I reckon if we were prevented from achieving our independence by London, we would ask for US help. But, unlike the Taiwanese, I don’t expect we’d get it.
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  31.  @fumbles216  If you accept that USs self-appointed “right” to intervene in Taiwan is hypocritical (which it is) then fine, at least let’s be honest about US actions and the reasons behind its foreign policy. US principles are real, but they are applied selectively. Taiwanese independence suits Washington, Scottish would not, so Taiwan gets support, while I suspect instead of Edinburgh getting US support, London would. US runs with the fox one week, and hunts with the hounds the next.
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  32.  @fumbles216  Wrt US support for Ukraine, Prof J Mearscheimer, a reputable political scientist from Chicago University maintains that US is making a massive mistake supporting Ukraine, as it’s China that is the only threat to US, not Russia. He maintains that US should have tried to ally with Russia (against China) instead of pushing Russia into the arms of China by helping to create the Russo-Ukrainian war thru pushing NATO ever eastward. I have to say it’s an idea with some merit.
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  33.  @KSmithwick1989 OK, but Taiwan is an internationally recognised part of China, regardless of its history. Plus, as far as I understand (could be wrong) the Taiwanese don’t claim they’re other than Chinese, rather that the independence supporting ones want their part of China to be independent. Every case for a claim of self determination is unique. The Taiwanese claim is a bit different in that the most powerful nation on earth is threatening to intervene if it is actively prevented by the current rulers.
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  34.  @mbaxter22  Why not? If you’re correct and Russia couldn’t even take Odessa - why are we in the West worried about them at all?
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  35.  @1000ciels  Thanks, but those are stated (political) objectives. I was wondering what the actual outcome will look like after the conflict is over. My guess is the Russians don’t want to occupy all of Ukraine, but rather will annex everything east of the Dniepr, possibly also adding Odessa region. I further speculate they know the remaining Ukraine will hate them and will join the EU, possibly also NATO.
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  36.  @СергейБулкин-ъ1и  Thanks for that, I wasn't aware and that indeed would make occupation of those regions difficult. But maybe not impossible? I don't know, but I reckon having the Dniepr as a border must be a powerful motivation for the Russians.
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  37. Is it known whether the US supply freeze includes “soft” services such as communications and information?
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  38.  @edthebumblingfool  Your point is good about Cuba installing nukes rather than a NATO Ukraine just having the capability to install them. However, I think a better comparison would be if Mexico grew its BRICS relationship with China and Russia into a formal military alliance, that’s ethos was (openly) to contain the USA. Do you seriously believe the US would accept such a Mexico, that hadn’t said it will install BRICS nukes, but didn’t say it wouldn’t, either? I think we all know the answer to that is No. US would shut that down, one way or another, including, if it felt necessary, militarily.
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  39. I don’t get it. Leaving aside whether N Korean troops are in Russia or not, surely if Russia can directly deploy N Korean troops to help them expel Ukrainians from Russia, then Ukraine could also directly deploy Polish or any other nation’s troops to help them expel Russians from Ukraine? WW3 here we come?!
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  40.  @JuanKuzov  Well, it’s a pity you didn’t read it, coz then you might have seen I was talking about Brexit, not Russia.
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  41.  @fumbles216  Hi. Not being American (so not my issue) and also not being aware of the relationship between Texas and Washington - what is your view as to; does Texas have the right to secede, and if it does (and did decide to) should Washington accept that decision?
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  42.  @fumbles216  OK, that’s an understandable POV, albeit, as a Scot, I tend to fall on the self-determination side of the fence. It’s an American decision, for sure, but all I’d say is that having a (big) group of people in your country that oppose the union they’re in isn’t a good outcome either. For us, being in the “United” Kingdom coz London won’t let us leave is frankly unacceptable.
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  43.  @fumbles216  I didn’t say I support Russia. I was talking about bigger American geopolitics. The Ukraine cause is different to ours, given we want to recreate our country, while the Ukrainians are defending an existing one. In my view the Ukrainians made a huge mistake not believing the Russians would act if they pressed ahead with plans to join NATO, plus they made another mistake thinking the US would send boots on the ground. The Russians made it plain (before the war) a NATO Ukraine was a red line to them as it would place NATO presence at the doorstep of Moscow. I always try to see the other side and I reckon I don’t blame the Russians for that POV. If Ukraine had played the ball better, they could have accepted the Russian demands for a guarantee of neutrality and no NATO membership. If they had I reckon they’d still have all of Ukraine except Crimea. Instead what they have now is a ruined country and Russia already in possession of a big chunk of it (getting bigger). They overplayed their hand, they believed the US would back them fully and underestimated the Russians. Big mistakes which they’re now paying for.
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  44.  @fumbles216  China does believe it should be able to tell Taiwan what to do - because it’s part of China. Have you not just explained why you believe Washington has the right to tell Texas what to do - what’s the difference? As for Russia, I kinda agree with you and not. Firstly, Russia only did what US would do in similar circumstances. When Cuba wanted Russian missiles, US told it to think again, when Chile voted communist, the US toppled their government. If Mexico falls out with US big time (not unlikely) joined BRICS and threatened to allow Chinese or Russian bases on their territory (unlikely), do you seriously think US would allow that? You kinda conceded earlier that US policy is dictated by what US considers its interests, rather than any overriding principles. Mexico’s “right” to do what it likes would be put in the same dumpster Ukraine’s was. That’s the world we live in, as you yourself described. Russia was prepared to allow an independent Ukraine as long as it remained neutral. It chose instead to poke the bear with a NATO stick. Where I agree with you (sort of) is on the field. Russia is struggling to beat a much weaker Ukraine, even with Western material, which must be a source of embarrassment to them. The Ukrainians are fighting like tigers and making them pay for every metre taken. But take it they will, I believe. The Russians have improved, are now stronger than they were and I reckon it’s inevitable they will prevail. What that will mean by way of a settlement, I don’t know. Anyhow, if that’s true - why are we in the West so paranoid about them? If they can’t get past Ukraine, why on earth should Poland worry a lost them, far less Germany or France?
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  45.  @revengian6526  Yes, we’re aware the US will always help those it can profit most from and follow the US line, and there are few that do so as slavishly as England (aka UK). In fact Obama already did that during the first independence referendum campaign. But we won’t let that stop us achieving what US did by throwing off Brit rule. You seem to know a lot about the finances of an independent Scotland, do you mind telling me where you’re getting your information from. I try to keep up with that topic and would like to see your working.
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  46.  @betseyhemmelgarn1230  Hi, is the international law you’re referring to the UN one on self-determination?
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  47.  @thenewmuslims9421  Not sure I know what you mean? Could you elaborate?
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  48.  @thenewmuslims9421  Sort of, you’ll have to pardon my ignorance of US politics. I get what you’re saying, but surely this isn’t a routine event? Surely threatening to disregard the Federal govt over basic sovereignty isn’t your normal day at the office?
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  49. 100%. We are expected to believe that Russia is at once a serious threat to all of Europe while struggling to beat one of the poorest European nations with which it has a long land border. They insult our intelligence.
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  50.  @ropec12  I hope, for humanity’s sake, you’re wrong. I agree a NATO port in Odessa would be considered a massive prize, but not sure NATO (the US) would consider risking WW3 for it. Especially if, I suspect is going to happen, Trump gets back in. The big question is, do the Russians..?
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