Comments by "Andy Monaghan" (@229andymon) on "Odessa is under fire. Ukraine counterattacks near Mar'inka. Military Summary And Analysis 2023.04.04" video.

What is the Russian’s ultimate objective? The 4 provinces it has annexed, those plus Odessa, everything east of the Dniepr, all of Ukraine? I don’t see much speculation on that.
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@1000ciels Thanks, but those are stated (political) objectives. I was wondering what the actual outcome will look like after the conflict is over. My guess is the Russians don’t want to occupy all of Ukraine, but rather will annex everything east of the Dniepr, possibly also adding Odessa region. I further speculate they know the remaining Ukraine will hate them and will join the EU, possibly also NATO.
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@СергейБулкин-ъ1и Thanks for that, I wasn't aware and that indeed would make occupation of those regions difficult. But maybe not impossible? I don't know, but I reckon having the Dniepr as a border must be a powerful motivation for the Russians.
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@margalef7003 I just can't see a) happening. Because however pro-Russian a regime is put in place in Ukraine - that could always change - as it did with Yanukovych. I can't see b) either because I reckon if Ukraine is truly independent they will join the EU and NATO. What I guess is that Russia will take east of Dniepr and probably also Odessa and then leave the rump Ukraine to do as it likes. It will have secured the buffer it wants. Russia already borders NATO states, bordering another one in an emasculated Ukraine won't trouble them too much.
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@СергейБулкин-ъ1и What I see is a new Cold War, with China (and Russia) replacing USSR as the new “enemy” of the West. But the whole world is also changing, with BRICS and other alliances hollowing out the current US global hegemony. Change is constant, but in this case it’s also very concerning. We live in dangerous times.
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@chrisoconnor6187 Ukraine is certainly giving them the fight of their lives. But - in that case why are Western European NATO countries increasing their military spend by huge degrees?
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@chrisoconnor6187 I don’t think that accounts for it. Those countries are talking of increasing their military spend in % terms every year, in some cases dramatically, to face a Russia that’s struggling to beat Ukraine. Those countries already outspend, outman and outgun Russia in almost all categories and the thought of Russia invading Western (or Central) Europe - even now - appears crazy. I don’t believe for a moment Russia would decide to do that, it’s 2023, not 1923. Russia has a GDP just above Spain and the days of the USSR are long gone. And that’s without adding the US to the mix. I think we need to see Russia for what it is, undoubtedly a threat to Ukraine, but not any further west.
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