Comments by "Persona" (@ArawnOfAnnwn) on "Why China Is on the Brink of Its Biggest Crisis in Decades" video.

"overly dependent on exports, real estate, and infrastructure spending" - Exports are a FIFTH of the Chinese economy. Germany or Japan are far more dependent on exports than China is. Real estate is their current problem, but it's also a recent problem. It only became a big thing after the 2008 crash. As for infrastructure, that's a GOOD thing lol. Countries need strong infrastructure.
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@fturatti China already has a large semiconductor industry. It just doesn't make the most advanced chips, which not even the US does - that's all Taiwan (who's right next to China btw, not America). But they've upgraded rapidly and are already at 7nm wafers. They're much less dependent on chips than the US is, and they're better placed to get them as well.
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@shewhoknows.792 Nothing really. They'll just restructure the debt. That's been the norm for most of their other debtors as well. See the How China Lends report to see it. China doesn't lend any different from how any other commercial entity does. They're more opaque than western govts. tend to be, but ultimately dealing with them isn't all that different from dealing with a commercial bank. A key difference between Chinese debts and IMF loans though is that they won't insist you revamp your whole economy via various conditions in order to 'fix' yourself. They'll just negotiate over the money.
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@AlessandroRodriguez The US' population is stable only as long as the US economy is not in freefall. It depends on immigrants, and the only immigrants who'll come to the US if it suffers a major economic blowout will be the desperate ones from even poorer Latin American nations. Those aren't the ones that prop up the US economy.
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@badluck5647 "The US doesn't have colonies" - true, it has client states instead. Which is basically most of the benefit of having a colony without any of the responsibility of having to actually to administer the place. This is not unique to the US - the European colonial powers also left large numbers of local kingdoms as partners in the regions they colonized. The US doesn't need nor want land, it wants a 'friendly government'.
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"The problem is that they didn’t know when to quit" - an ironic thing to say considering they already have. They aren't building high speed rail like they used to, cos they've already realized they have enough. And not all those lines were even meant to be profitable.
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@MrRezillo "the law of Karma at work" - if that was a thing, the US would be wracked by war for all the wars it's visited elsewhere. This isn't about karma, it's plain hateful sadism that's being post-rationalized to make not look terrible.
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@MrRezillo "That's why Chinese people with the means are getting out of there" - lol, China sends out million tourists and students every year, a few thousand emigrate while most return home. The Philippines or India have more people 'getting out' than China does, and the former was a US colony and the latter a British one. Even Harvard studied the public sentiment in China and found it positive (Understanding CCP Resilience, 2020), especially moreso towards the central govt.
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@lunadead None of those countries depend on the hospitality sector lol. Also what're you smoking thinking hospitality isn't a labor intensive industry lmao?! They just moved up to making a higher value products, which is exactly what China has also and is still doing (for recent examples see their conquest of the solar and EV industries). Taiwan also started out with textiles and cheap toys, now both they and China have left that behind.
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@mohba01 "you get to own the land in India and India is not a dictatorship" - neither of these make any difference to property markets. The last major real estate bubble was in the US, a democracy with private property. And plenty of smaller democracies with private property have also faced their own over the years. China also still has large numbers of rural folk, just less than India.
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@hurrdurrmurrgurr "the pay isn't commensurate with the work" - you know immigrants still pay the same for groceries at the supermarket, right? They still live in the US, dealing with US prices. They're just more willing to put up with it than locals.
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@karunama3771 "China's growth has only been about 60% of that reported and every year since it has been tracked, that divergence has widened." - that estimate is speculative and has been questioned. Taking for granted the experimental economics of one dude is like buying into the claims of finding room temperature superconductors that was debunked recently. It is not accepted and is no substitute for the measures that ARE globally accepted by all international financial institutions. Just cos the media latched on to that paper and spread it far and wide doesn't make it economic orthodoxy.
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@AlessandroRodriguez Compounding a speculative figure doesn't make it any more true, quite the opposite.
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@AlessandroRodriguez Have fun arguing with the IMF, World Bank, BIS and every other global economic institution to use your alternative economic measure over the one that's the established standard. You heard of a hot new bit of experimental economics from a sensationalist media headline and suddenly think you know national income better than the experts. What next? Is fusion power about to explode just cos the media went gaga over the 'breakthrough' at the NIF? Is AI about to take over the world just cos ChatGPT exploded in popularity last year? Do tell.
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Inevitable lol! Hindsight is 20/20 for you people, and everything that occurs in the world is always filtered through your own ideological blinkers to cater to your own preconceived notions and biases. I bet you also think their people are desperate for an American intervention to 'save' them from said dictatorship. Harvards' Understanding CCP Resilience report says otherwise. Reality doesn't care whether you like how it plays out, and laughs at your supposed 'values' as little more than ego-stroking.
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