Comments by "Persona" (@ArawnOfAnnwn) on "Can Russia Recover and Win the War? - VisualEconomik EN" video.

India is NOT buying it at a 'steep' discount, they're buying it at close to market prices when shipping and handling costs are included. Cos that shipping and handling is being done by Russian firms, and Russian ships. The actual discount is around a fifth of your $30 figure after shipping and handling is included, according to India's own ports. China is likely a similar situation.
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Given VisualPolitiks' open biases, I can guess what the judgment of this video is gonna be. Now time to see if my guess was right. Edit: Yep, as expected the video was quick to dismiss the positive data and try to spin everything negatively. I particularly liked how it jumped to the conclusion that optical and metallurgical products are somehow all weapons lol! Like what, is Luxembourg a major arms producer now? Or the Netherlands? It also ignored its own graph showing all the sectors that fell down following the opening hostilities are now rising again. But most tellingly, the video plays up Ukrainian claims of Russian losses, while making no mention of Ukraine's own losses of western equipment, and more generally how the war is affecting their adversaries economy. Ukraine even changed its offensive early on precisely because of how much equipment it was losing. They're mostly not even fighting much of an armored war anymore, but an infantry one, and that looks set to continue. To be clear Russia has losses, but to pretend their enemy has none is grossly biased. The side on the offensive typically loses more in the attempt, and right now that isn't Russia, who're mostly just sitting tight and letting Ukraine throw as much as it can at them. Meanwhile the Ukrainian military and economy is at this point entirely dependent on western support. Russia is holding out not just without extra support but with active exertions by the west to undermine it. Lastly I love how the goalposts of the sanctions has shifted just like people point out the Russia's war goals did. Only difference being that Russia shifted goalposts early on and since then has held them steady, while the sanctions goalposts continue to be shifted to this day.
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@winj3r Lol no! First off both India and China (and even Japan, which literally even got US permission to do it) already buys Russian oil at above the $60 price cap, as even western media has reported and which western leaders like Janet Yellen (look it up) have acknowledged and allowed. Secondly you're still making the same mistake. Look up how much is being charged for getting that oil to India, it's much higher than the normal shipping costs for oil from other countries, precisely because Russian oil is being sold cheaper and so there's more room to charge more on other things when it's under their control (why do you think Russia bought a huge fleet of ships in advance of the price cap?). Put together the price paid by these nations for Russian oil is at a smaller discount than the sticker price that the west likes to harp on about. If the price cap was so effective, then why would Russia even care to try working with OPEC to raise oil prices still? It's cos every rise in oil prices is still a profit for them, just a little below the OPEC norm.
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@kenm3943 And when Ukraine has planes you'll see them do the same - after all, they're literally doing that right now with the much hyped tanks they got. They'll send a few sorties, lose those planes and then refuse to use them any further after. And the war goes back to how it is now, with Ukraine grinding against Russian lines. We are watching the same war - you're just an overhyped pleb who sees it through the eyes of a teenager watching a Marvel film.
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Btw, on a more general note, I gotta love how all the comment replies here are focused on the military side of things rather than economic. And also all on Russia while ignoring Ukraine. Shows what you guys all really care about. This war is basically being treated by western gawkers like an IRL version of a Marvel flick, where it's all about the cool action scenes and their heroes taking down the villain. Despite even this video being about the economy, not battlefield, all everyone cares about is the cool action on the battlefield. And like any Marvel flick, everyone doesn't bother about the injuries to their hero (Ukraine) cos they 'know' none of that matters as long as it wins. The sad thing is, with such a childish attitude to war, you people are gonna quickly forget about Ukraine whenever this war ends (however it ends), as it simply won't hype you up as much anymore. They'll be left to pick up the pieces with whatever goodwill they can scrounge together from much more dour European bureaucrats, as the public moves on to its next big blockbuster - the great war with China. That one should be a huge hit, and the promotional push for it is already underway!
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@korayven9255 "It's not a question of if Russia's economy breaks if they are unable to win outright or cut off the aid" - ironically someone else above brought up history. Well here's the history of sanctions - they've failed in every instance. Literally the only major example of sanctions ever achieving their stated goal is that of apartheid South Africa, and that example is heavily doubted in academic circles as the country already had a strong anti-apartheid movement ongoing by the time they were implemented - which, also ironically, was also supported by Russia (hence why South Africa still has good ties with Moscow). Other that that disputed 'success story', sanctions are one long string of failures, despite the passage of decades in some cases. Cuba still hasn't caved in, neither has Iran, neither has Korea, etc. And all these nations are just being driven further and further into the arms of your worst nightmare - the second largest economy on Earth. Have fun trying to sanction them to death next, and crashing the whole world economy in the process. Sanctions may hurt Russia sure, but they won't stop it, just as they haven't stopped anyone else they were used on. Meanwhile Ukraine is being subjected to far worse economic damage than any sanction package could ever achieve. If that tap ever dries up, as I expect it will (at least in terms of the magnitude of it they're getting) if and when the war ends, they're in bigger trouble.
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@cristianion2056 Lmao! You people call out Russia for changing goalposts while doing it yourselves all the time. None of those sanctions had anything to do with them attacking their neighbours kid. In fact all of them have gone to war way less than the US itself has, by a large margin. They each had stated goals, and failed at them. Go do some reading as to what those were.
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If the sanctions did their job, Russia's economy would have collapsed by now. That's certainly what everyone was celebrating when they were announced, and again after the oil price cap. Instead it's now the west that's shifting the goalposts and pretending they always had modest expectations for the sanctions.
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@Vandelberger Changing goalposts again. Western vehicles were hyped up as the key to Ukraine's counteroffensive before they agreed to supply them. Then after receiving them and launching said offensive, they quickly lost a bunch and ditched them. In other words they weren't key to anything. As for the air war, it's worth noting that Russia not only also has an air force (which has largely remained intact through this war), but also literally has a suite of anti-air weapons that it was known for even prior to this war. So the air war might very well end up going much the same as the vehicle hype we heard earlier. What magic bullet are you gonna hype next? Give them nukes?
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@kenm3943 Russia isn't fighting any war anymore lol. They're mostly just sitting there and draining Ukraine. As for 'war of the future' lol! There's nothing new about drones, Russia both has and is using drones itself already. Hell drones are used even by minor militaries around the world, and the main reason is cos they're cheaper. A lot of Ukrainian drones are ironically even Chinese DJI drones, which are commercial civilian drones rather than military ones, retrofitted by them. Russia uses missiles and both its own and Iranian drones, both of which are military drones at the outset. You don't hear much about the Bayraktar Turkish drones much nowadays for a reason - Ukraine ran out of them and didn't want to buy more cos they aren't cheap. There's nothing futuristic about how Ukraine is fighting, also shown by how often Russian air defences take down those drones simply with ECM rather than actually shooting them down. Proper military drones should be resistant to that.
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@korayven9255 NATO? Looks like you're at least cottoning on to what this war is actually about. Good on you for that. And you're right that NATO will try to make the most of Ukraine if it gets a free hand to do so, which is precisely why Russia will keep doing everything to prevent that. And likely China too in the long run, as they see NATO much the same way Russia does and don't wish to see it grow. If NATO wants to get involved in Ukraine, they're gonna be locked into a real forever war that'll destroy what's left of Ukraine. Russia has warned about NATO for over 30 years, including just before this war, which was ignored until they finally decided to act on it and hence NATO has finally chosen to exercise a bit more caution in its recent meetings. How long that'll last I don't know, but the outcome of it not lasting isn't as rosy as you'd like to think. They already have an office in Japan now, this conflict will go global if you keep pushing your luck. That said, unlike all of you action junkies, I wasn't referring to NATO when I said Ukraine would be forgotten after the war. NATO is led by serious men. I was, unlike all of you action junkies, firstly referring to Ukraine's economy rather than military, and further to that I was referring to political contributions as opposed to bureaucratic ones (that's why I mentioned them still getting some basic support from 'dour European bureaucrats'). The level of support they're getting now is partly because of how politically hyped this war is, after the war that won't be the case. If NATO chooses to and gets to set up shop in Ukraine, it'll do what it does elsewhere - build bases for NATO troops. That has a minor economic impact at best, not even close to what's needed to rebuild the country. Most of that requires boring economic aid to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, an amount you'll never be able to rustle up after the war without major popular backing - a popular backing that won't be as popular once the exciting part of the conflict has died down. You can see that clearly in all other foreign aid the west has sent out over the years - it's a pittance compared to both what is needed and what they could send. NATO isn't gonna do that for you, you people are gonna have to push govts. for it over a sustained period of decades. I'm skeptical that the childishness on display in the above comments bodes at all well for the future of that endeavour.
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@badluck5647 Russia is currently at full employment actually. Even the vid said so. And ironically for you folks the only real challenge to Putin's regime in Russia is from nationalists who favor war even more.
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@kenm3943 Well then you're out of ideas. Ukraine is left to grind itself to oblivion while the west pats itself on the back. Meanwhile the biggest beneficiary of all this builds up ever further - China.
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