Comments by "Solo Renegade" (@SoloRenegade) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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@Withnail1969 sure energy plays a factor, but not THE factor.
When we manufacture things, the cost of energy is Never on the list. When we make sheet metal parts, it's about material cost, setup cost, and labor.
When fixing an airplane, it's about part cost, and labor.
When doing construction, its' about cost of materials, and labor (time).
When doing electrical work, it's about materials and labor.
when McDonalds decides to automate, it's due to labor cost.
Why does Tesla automate their car production? Labor cost. Takes more energy to make teh car with robots than it did with people. But the robots work night and day, don't take breaks, don't need healthcare and benefits, don't pay income taxes or retirement....
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Why do people still talk like Russia has ANY chance of winning at this point. Russia's best units (airborne, Spetznaz, Chechnyans, etc) were defeated Months ago, and they are so desperate now they are sending untrained civilians to fight with no equipment. if that's the best they can do after mobilization, the Russian military is already eviscerated and on it's last leg. There is nothing left of any consequence in Russia for them to send to Ukraine that would make a difference at this point.
They have lost more men in 7months than the US lost in Vietnam.
Want to compare this to past Russian conflicts? Russia lost 15k troops in 9yrs in Afghanistan, 451 aircraft (75% of that was helicopters), only 150 tanks, 1300 misc vehicles, and 400 artillery, and 11k trucks. Over 10yrs. Russia has lost WAY more than that in only 7months in Ukraine.
Contrast this to 7months in Ukraine with now well over 50k dead, countless more wounded and POWs. Hundreds of aircraft lost, including well over 100 fixed wing (about 8 more lost in just the last week or so?), over 1000 tanks lost or captured, thousands of trucks, artillery, air defenses, thousands of APC and other armored vehicles lost or captured. And tons of other weapons, ammo, etc. Russia can't even make more equipment to replace its losses and is buying artillery ammo from North Korea. And Russia is running out of missiles of all types, and those they fired had about a 60% failure rate.
Russia is taking WW2-level casualties. The US didn't even lose people at this rate in WW2.
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@EveryoneWhoUsesThisTV "Gen-X grew up with pirated games we had to figure out without manuals... Great skill development..."
Ah, so you admit it wasn't "playing video games", but rather building things, pirating things, reprogramming things....
"Plus, the games helped us develop fast interface skills with the mouse etc...."
Ah, so you admit it was Building things, designing things, improving things, not playing games itself....
"Gen-Z has console AAA games and smartphones with touchscreen trash interfaces - they don't have a chance..... :D"
Ah, so you admit that it's TINKERING and building things that made the difference, not playing video games, otherwise GenZ would be superior.
"The premise is that old school games got us into IT, nobody mentioned engineers or being better at anything.... :)"
No, building, tinkering, designing better solutions, etc. got you into IT, not playing video games.
So far you haven't refuted a single thing I've said. In fact, you're making my argument for me with tons of case examples.
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@RibshackTV "Intuition is just that... You don't learn intuition"
false. you are not born with mechanical intuition. it is learned. you do things enough until you gain a working undersatnding of what does/doesn't work, that is where intuition comes from.
"by gaming you get exposure (in a fun way) which makes things like circuitry, electricity, operating systems, PCBs & software manipulation easier."
False. playing video games teaches you none fo those things.
Working on circuits, programming things, building things, troubleshooting things, etc. is how you learned those skills. Playing games taught you none of that. Your desire to play games, led you to do those things, so that you could then play games. but none of that was learned while PLAYING games. it was your INTEREST in games that led you to learn the other things. but you weren't soldering circuits or programming an operating system while playing video games.
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@Withnail1969 that proves nothing. Yes, the world needs oil, coal, natural gas, mining for raw material for other sources of energy, etc. That doesn't prove your right.
Cities also grew up around logging mills downstream of large forests. That doesn't mean wood is the most important cost of goods.
some cities grew up around car factories, that doesn't make cars the largest cost of goods.
energy is needed, but we have lived in an era of cheap energy. Energy is a prime consideration in my industry, but in no way related to making what we sell. We know our customers will spend more money operating our equipment over the life of the product than they bought it for. So we show them that if we spend MORE money making our product More efficient, they will save on their operating expenses long term, and will save more money in teh long run by buying a more expensive energy efficient device.
But we do that to justify selling a better more expensive product, and make more profit on our end. Doesn't hurt that our argument is also true. But when we design and manufacture our product, the cost of energy to manufacture it doesn't even factor into the design nor development of our product. Labor costs, and then material costs, are the two largest factors we deal with on a daily basis in engineering.
I also have a side business designing and selling various products, and we don't even consider the cost of electricity to run our machines to make our products. We factor in the material costs, parts costs, and time spent assembling it. But we don't include cost of electricity of the laser, printers, power tools, CNC, etc. as when you divide the energy cost by the number of parts made, it's just not worth the time to calculate it and add it to the price. it's pennies. Costs more in labor to take the time to calculate it.
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Naval warfare has already been using drones for decades
UAV: TDR-1 (ww2), FIDO (WW2), Fritz-X (WW2), anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, etc.
Unmanned naval drones: torpedoes (WW1), Homing torpedoes (WW2) submarines (US already has many such as ORCA, Manta, etc.), surface ships (US has many such as port protection, gunboats, sub hunting ship, etc.)
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@johntowers1213 "most of those things you mentioned are high value assets that lean heavily on the quality over quantity ethos"
Not true at all. torpedoes, and missiles are in widespread use and have been for decades. the TDR-1 was extremely cost effective, but was an experiment and not a fully approved nor funded project. but those who tested them in combat begged and pleaded for more. But even before testing had commences, US procurement had already decided not to make them operational.
You're missing the point though. Every single guided weapon in history is a "drone". Some are cheap, some are not, but all are equally DRONES.
the US used tens of drones in Iraq and Afghanistan for decades, I know I was there and we used them. many ideas used in Ukraine, many drones used in Ukraine, were developed by the US in decades past. Including things like the switchblade drones. And the US military and civilians saw the potential of weaponized quadcopters for years prior to Ukraine and did studies on it and people even made videos about the dangers and potential. But they are nothing more than an extension of the drones used in decades past in wars like WW2, Vietnam, Desert Storm, and OIF/OEF, Armenia, and Syria.
Small cheap Drones were already in widespread use for decades, but it wasn't until Ukraine that the public at large became aware of it is all. And partly due to teh fact that such drones don't work as effectively in wars the US is actively fighting in, as we fight differently, and the way we fight is not conducive to this type of drone warfare seen in Ukraine working.
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I was rooting for Wagner, because Russians fighting Russians takes pressure off Ukraine.
In a way the present situation is better than Wagner winning. Wagner was arguably Russia's most elite forces. They have now been dishonored, disbanded, broken up, dissolved, absorbed into regular army units, and will no longer fight as effectively and not has as good of leadership. The best Russian unit just got taken out of the war. This is a win for Ukraine.
And, it proves how inept the Russian regular armed forces are, how weak Putin is, and sows doubt in the future of teh Russian state as a whole. We are on step closer to the nation state of "Russia" as we know it today, ceasing to exist.
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@twostop6895 I get that feds control interstae commerce, but the point is that it's not up to CA then either, and the feds can FORCE california's compliance.
But, CO, UT, AZ, NV all touch the water, and could drain it before it reaches the CA border, and thus the river would no longer exist on CA territory, and they'd no longer have claim to it.
While feds control some of this (but clearly are not, as they are leaving it to the states to work out on their own), the water does exist within the physically boundaries of the respective states. and so long as they draw only from their side of state boundaries, it's technically not interstate commerce. Especially for CO if they drew from the river upstream where its banks are solely within CO.
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