Comments by "Curious Crow" (@CuriousCrow-mp4cx) on "Eurodollar University"
channel.
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Biden or Trump the outcome is the same. 2019 the recession was on its way before the pandemic, which was just yet another crash due to the instability caused by 2008. And because the global financial system broke then, any supply shock would hurt everybody. It doesn't matter who is in the White House in November, they're not writing the agenda. They're just the front an for a more powerful force influencing outcomes leading from the fact that greed, fear, and folly are driving the economy. The experiment started in the 1980s has failed, and the job of government is to clean up the mess left by the financiers and the corporations, which entails stopping anything that would harm the status quo. Biden is just doing his job. Yellen's on the clock, and so is Powell. Blame is pointless, because unwittingly we've been complicit in bringing on the problems. When real wage growth stalled, the unions were neutered and their place at the table was removed. And workers borrowed to maintain their lifestyles. That left only the government and the money men in charge. And Blue and Red work for the money men. Almost all money they're spending goes to them directly and indirectly, whilst the employees just get more debt. They resgaped your economy to serve their interests, not yours. And they're trying to hold onto their power and get more wealth so they can keep score. It's a small club and ordinary Americans ain't in it. They and their descendants will just have settle the bill.for the folly of their wealthy asset owners.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Not necessarily. Inflation can be purely down to too much money in the system, but as most of it is Bank credit provided by banks making loans, and the banks aren't very many new loans, and are dumping loans off their books, where's the money coming from? There is not much credit to be had. So this is less about monetary policy, and more about supply issues due to offshore supply lines being more expensive, Services becoming more expensive due to demand and firms like insurers passing on increased costs to consumers. (climate change is real, bird flu killed poultry flocks that have to be replaced, and Healthcare costs can't shrink, sorry.) Interest rate hikes are performative, because they can't do anything about supply shocks, and hardly any of the "money printing" went directly to consumers. Most of it when to firms, and if that money had been lent to firms instead of being gifted, or taxed effectively, there wouldn't have been much inflation to think about.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Hopium is the hidden drug when uncertainty rears it's ugly head. People hope that what goes round doesn't come around. And reality carries on regardless. One reality is that the American economy in growth is shaped like a K. Those at the top have enough to say, "Crisis? What crisis?" And the ones at the bottom can smell the smoke as their hopes get crisp in the heat. Economics by walking about - actually looking hard at the realities around you - will tell you more about the real state of your economy. Add that to any economists' analysis - which is an overview anyway - and you'll know what's happening. The fact that consumer confidence is still tanking, and unemployment is set to rise, that more workers are falling out of the unemployment stats than are finding new jobs, and that hiring is in ice, is Economist talk for "buckle up boys, it's going to be a bumpy ride for those needing jobs to get by" is a red flag. But it's not the same economy for those who live off the value of assets. The asset rich got a severe pinch last, but hell, there's nearly 5 years to go yet. Them getting pinched, when there's little value outside tech, means there's only Hopium between the reality of those who need a job, and those that don't.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
No, it's not the worse case scenario right now. Unemployment hasn't even hit 6%. That's the time the Fed goes into panic mode. Right now their butt cheeks are clenched because it's a presidential election year. If it wasn't, they and most mainstream economists would be chilling, because they thought they had done something worthwhile. But... As the inflation we were hit with was mostly a supply shock, nothing the Fed could do could fix that. And this is the problem. The Fed itself doesn't understand inflation fully. Inflation isn't always a monetary phenomenon. Supply shocks due to exogenous factors like supply shocks aren't influenced by interest rates. Why interest rates had to be hiked was that QE was pursued at too high a level for too long. That was the monetary bit of the problem. and then the pandemic supply shock once lockdowns were done ramped up inflation on top of that even further. But, the problem is that consumers didn't most of that QE money. The big winners were the owners and shareholders of the businesses in which that household QE money was very quickly spent during the pandemic. Moreover, those businesses also got nice handouts from the State too. So the asset wealthy got a huge wealth boost because of QE and stimulus money. Far more than consumers did. So when those profits began to be spent, what were they being spent on? Luxury goods and services and assets. Hence the stock market boom, house prices climbing and not experiencing falls, and the sales boost in overseas travel and luxury vehicles. When the Fed finally woke up to the hike in inflation, they went hard on hikes that hit those who hadn't caused the inflation. Interest rate increases benefitted who? The asset wealthy. The Fed is clueless.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Er... Not really, sweetheart. Right after lock downs ended, everyone expected China to lead the world in the global recovery, but it couldn't. And the US couldn't do it either. But China's situation went downhill from there. Basically, China is channeling a swan - seemingly serene above the water, but below the waterline, it's legs are going 10 to the dozen. Bazookas and bond sales can't help when the fundamentals don't add up. And that was the illusion of wealth with the collapsing Housing Bubble, defaulting belt and road loans, the withdrawal of informal subsidies, and the reshoring trend, are problems that bring worsening conditions for China. The only comfort is that China is not alone.
1
-
1
-
1
-
It depends what you mean by "investment advice." You can't give investment advice on YouTube. Only accredited financial advisors can do that legally. So, this information on this channel isn't really for someone dropping a hundred dollars a month into the stock market. This is for people who have enough money to invest in global capital markets. So, it might just be above your pay grade tbh. A minimum deposit into the Eurodollar market is about $1 million. So... perhaps this information isn't for you. But, it still has its uses because it's about the whole global financial system and how it really works, and how it impacts the value of the dollar, and how governments and central banks are passengers and not driving the bus. Offshore Capital is where the real wealth is, out of the reach of the tax man, and away from public scrutiny. And the Eurodollar markets are the interface between that space and the rest of the global economy. National governments and Central banks are struggling to reduce its impact on whst we call the real economy. So yes, the Eurodollar market may seem irrelevant, but it makes the stock market look like a kindergarten. And your tax dollars are going into it to service your government's debt. So if the stock market is the weather, the Eurodollar market dictates the economic climate by its sheer size alone. It where people who need dollars get them. It creates most of the dollars in the world by providing USD-denominated credit to us and foreign banks and non-bank financial institutions like hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies. More USD is created and destroyed in the Eurodollar market every year than what exists in the US domestic economy. And it's controlled by the banking sector, and not governments or the Fed. So this is a macroeconomic channel. It's not about personal finance or small scale investing. This is about who runs the world.
1
-
That's not going to happen, because that's only a symptom and not the cause of the problem. The real cause of the problem is that USD is valued too high for the productivity of its economy, and that wealth inequality - the disparate distribution of asset wealth - is reducing the ability to cushion the blow of inflation hikes. You have a fantasy economy where it's supposed to be driven by consumers, but nobody wants to pay those employees in real terms so that they can actually save money. Real wage growth has fallen behind inflation for the last 4 decades, and to maintain their living standards those workers took out debt. So the great GDP figures are phooey. First the Assetless Income Constrained Working class Employees, got deep sixed, and now it's the turn of the middle classes to suffer while the Asset Wealthy hoover up most of the money, and spend very little on consumption. Rather, they keep buying more and more assets. It's the low or no asset owners who are seeing both their purchasing power and Net value being eroded, mainly because politicians listen to financiers, bankers, and other wealthy assets owners, rather than those who depend on a wage for survival. Accordingly, the economic system has been unwittingly arranged for the Asset Owners to get even more wealthier and everyone else to get priced out of asset markets. Inflation was the tide going out, so everyone could see who was swimming naked because of the absurd logic underlying Neoliberal economics for nearly the last 5 decades. And the chickens are coming home to roost. And it's was written about by an 18th century Economist called Richard Cantillon. And the problem is that nobody wants the gravy train to stop. But the impoverishment of both limited and non-asset owners and their government will not stop, until the wealthy asset owning junkies and are forced to go cold Turkey, and consumption is no longer driven by mostly consumer debt. Until employees wages match inflation, and the overgenerous flow of assets to the already asset wealthy the pandemic is recouped by taxing ithem, nothing will change, and your descendants will get poorer.
1
-
1
-
Warren Buffet reads the newspapers as analysis for assessing investments, and Wall Street Traders read newspapers as another source of analysis. And that's assessing activity with open economies. So why not with China? There's nothing wrong with reading newspapers if you choose the right newspapers and magazines, especially when traditional sources are either scarce or manipulated. (That's why certain regimes keep journalists away from their conflicts, because they want to control the narrative.) And I finance credibility is important. The Latin root of the word Credit, is Latin for Trust or belief, and if the financial data coming out is rigged or absent, you act like a rodent and find information where you can. Even more so, when your audience aren't experts on the subject, and need accessible onboarding to understand why a particular foreign economy is worth paying attention to. Especially, where the goal is to make money when times are good or bad. Of course, the humble newspaper is only a starting point, but you have to start somewhere, right?
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
Go to the top of the class. It worse because the mechanism for producing that USD is broken. The Economist Mark Blyth described the International financial system like computer hardware for moving capital around the world. How well it works depends on the quality of the code written to program it. And like any computer, GIGO applies. And human frailties like greed, ambition, and desire can influence that code. To coin a phrase: "What man proposes, his predelictions disposes." The crash of 2008 was devastating it proved that ignoring human folly - as the Neoliberal economists optimistically did - proved that self-regulation of markets was unrealistic. The leash was too loose, and a lot of people got badly bitten. And despite the efforts of central bankers everywhere, confidence in capital markets is weaker, because nobody trusts anybody anymore. In relying on the US to provide an unlimited flow of liquidity/collateral, it is creating instability. Without trust, the risk aversion makes capital more expensive, and during down profits. And in requiring financial institutions to load up their balance sheets with assets they can't make a profit on, it's putting more pressure on the whole global financial system. It no longer works as smoothly efficiently. That's costing everyone.
1
-
1
-
1
-
1
-
The Debt Ceiling was introduced in 1917 supposedly to give Congress the power to establish a limit on the growth of US sovereign debt. In practice however, the debt ceiling has never fallen. So go figure. The pessimism about US sovereign debt is questionable, because the ability to service the debt is there, even after sustained QE. However, the burden isn't evenly spread across the population, because the ALICEs - the asset limited, income-constrained employees - are getting hit now, and their children's prospects are worsening too. However, it's Congress who has turned the Debt Ceiling into an elevator, because the process is a consequence of the political will of Congress. All what will happen is that the debt will be rolled over, and as the majority of UST purchasers are US citizens, corporations, or institutions, Uncle Sam's debt is inescapably most of the savings of Americans. So, nothing will be done to change the status quo, unless there is a revolution in American Political Economy. And that's quite unlikely, because, at least for now, nobody is grabbing their pitchforks. The overwhelming privilege of being the global reserve currency is that USD or it's safest proxy - US Treasuries - are always in demand at home or abroad. That's the economic reality, and Congress keeps it that way. The only people who aren't happy, are those who think government debt is the same as personal or business debt. It's not. Having access to USD or USTs is the lubrication that keeps the global financial system running as capital and collateral. When there aren't enough to meet demand, the whole world gets uncomfortable. And the crises we've been having come about because there not enough to meet demand. That's why securitisation was a game changer. But, it means there are bottlenecks building up right now, because the AI bubble has been pricked by the possibly realities of Trump's trade and tariff war. If Trump gets his way, let's say the horses will be spooked, because his plans are naturally inflationary, which is perceived by the financial markets as an issue, because despite all the money thrown at the banks, they're trying to complete a tightrope walk. It's just crazy, but it also means, whatever happens in the future, right now USD is still the king of the hill.
1