Comments by "Curious Crow" (@CuriousCrow-mp4cx) on "Commercial Real Estate Bust Hits Europe (BADLY)" video.

  1. But you still keep coming back. Lol.
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  2. How can there be a call to action? There's no magic spell going to fix this for everyone. It depends on you own circumstances, and there is no one perscription for everyone. There will be calm seas and there will be stormy seas, that's the only certainty in investing. if you're going to sail your boat on the sea, you had better learn how to respond to rough seas, as much as fair weather before you leave the port.
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  3. If he's part of the bubble, what are you? An economy is not a chart. An economy is a complex collective of decisions people make about how to access resources. A chart is an abstraction, it's not a description or explanation of reality. It won't tell you about how the economy really works. If all you want is to put petrol in your rank you don't go to an oil refinery. So what are you doing here. Go to the garage.
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  4. Go to the top of the class. It worse because the mechanism for producing that USD is broken. The Economist Mark Blyth described the International financial system like computer hardware for moving capital around the world. How well it works depends on the quality of the code written to program it. And like any computer, GIGO applies. And human frailties like greed, ambition, and desire can influence that code. To coin a phrase: "What man proposes, his predelictions disposes." The crash of 2008 was devastating it proved that ignoring human folly - as the Neoliberal economists optimistically did - proved that self-regulation of markets was unrealistic. The leash was too loose, and a lot of people got badly bitten. And despite the efforts of central bankers everywhere, confidence in capital markets is weaker, because nobody trusts anybody anymore. In relying on the US to provide an unlimited flow of liquidity/collateral, it is creating instability. Without trust, the risk aversion makes capital more expensive, and during down profits. And in requiring financial institutions to load up their balance sheets with assets they can't make a profit on, it's putting more pressure on the whole global financial system. It no longer works as smoothly efficiently. That's costing everyone.
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  5. The Eurodollar markets are the global offshore market for USD capital. In capitalisation it's about 1.5 - 2 times bigger than the US domestic economy. It's no surprise that countries outside the US are following its financial sector cues, because as the major global reserve currency, everyone uses USD to finance their banking sectors. So when securitisation evolved in the US, those securities weren't just sold to US banks. They were sold and used as collateral in the Eurodollar Markets as well. So the risk contagion was global. Hence, the damage done by greedy and credulous US financial institutions in 2008 damaged the global financial system. It's broken it, as can be seen by the stagnation in the global economy since the GFC. And that interdependency was the product of the US-driven financial globalisation initiated by the US after World War II at the Bretton Woods Conference. But, it's arguable that becoming the global financial hegemon then was storing up issues for the US in the future. Being the major global reserve currency is a two-edged sword, because now your economy gets cheaper capital, but you have to supply the global demand for your currency. It's arguable that the US postwar policies were well-meaning but short-sighted, because it became a problem for the US economy thereafter to supply those USD. it was then the currency was geopoliticised, and caused issues. The postwar boom in the US increased the demand for imports, increasing inflation in the US, to which the response was capital controls to control the amount of USD leaving the US. This had the knock-on effect of reducing the amount of USD available in the rest of the world. That caused problems for everyone else, as they needed USD to pay for their imports, from the US and elsewhere, as well as producing their exports. It was that problem that bought about the evolution of the Eurodollar market between British and continental European banks, lending offshore deposits in their vaults to governments and each other. Demand for USD outstripped supply, and those banks in London and Europe made a huge profit. It came to the attention of US investment banks, who got around the Capital controls by setting up subsidiaries in London and Europe. Together with the Europeans they connived with governments to keep the trade unofficial and deregulated, which made them even more money, but also made the size of the market opaque to Uncle Sam. This probably contributed to him not taking it that seriously. So, since at least the Mid 20th century, the global economy has been interdependency because of reliance on USD to fund global trade. Financial globalisation is barely on the radar of those discontented with globalisation. But it exists in the similarities and synchronicities between national economies. E.G. Every developed economy has a housing bubble; trade in debt both consumer and commercial has ballooned, all have embraced privatisation to a degree, and all has problems with wealth inequality, aka the slow death of the middle class and social mobility, etc. Indeed, the level of financialisation within their economies correlates strongly with the degree of their adherence to Neoliberal economic tenets. (It is no surprise the worst impacts are in countries that fully committed themselves to those economic beliefs. The more sceptical, the less corrosion in the economy for the ALICEs - Asset Limited, Income Constrained Employees.) So, bad ideas spread just like viruses, and the chances of recovery depend on national economic beliefs.
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  6. That's a bunch of assumptions, but that's all they are. Without deeper knowledge about how international money works demonstrated, what you believe is frankly not convincing.
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