Comments by "Curious Crow" (@CuriousCrow-mp4cx) on "The Worst Banking Data on Chinese Record" video.

  1. The NBER takes more that a year to declare when a recession starts, because there is no real time data that can give a immediate signal. Economic data is subject to revisions, and therefore Recessions are always announced upto 2 year after the fact. Like the Covid recession wasn't officially announced until 8 months after. So your observation is inaccurate. Currentlly, the established pre-indicators for recession are the inversion of the 3m10y and 2Y10Y Yield Curves, and these are still within their 2 year lag time. Danielle DiMartino Booth convincingly argues the Recession began in the 3rd quarter of 2023, and was obscured by Uncle Sam throwing money at it. And the Stock Market is always the last to know. Right now, The Maverick if Wall Street points out that the growth in the US Utility stocks, is the Last Chance Saloon before investors head for the hills into USTs... So...? The Fat Lady hasn't sung yet.
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  2. Not really. Between July and October 2024 is the interesting times nobody wants to live through. And Jay Powell basically admitted at the last rate announcement that Unemployment is now on the Fed's radar, after being sidelined for inflation.
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  3. You do China a disservice by pretending not to see trouble ahead for its economy, and the rest of the global economy in turn. Their problems are inherent in financial Capitalism, because the global financial system has been dysfunctional since 2008. And their approach has come up against the imperfections of human nature. And that has caused them problems like everyone else. It just hit China particularly hard, and it's everybody's fault. The system is broken, and geopolitics is just adding salt to the wounds. Globalisation is creating more discontent and instability, and nobody is being truly candid about it. So China has to negotiate it's way through choppy waters, just like other countries too. How this instability in the global economy is to be resolved, has yet to be seen. But nothing, whether good or bad, last forever. What happens next will happen.
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