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surely you joke, mein failüre
Dr. John Campbell
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Comments by "surely you joke, mein failüre" (@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531) on "Thursday 30th April" video.
@anny791 To add - there is a lag of about a month between when an event happens and when the peak of the related cases appear on the radar. Use Mardi Gras (New Orleans) as an example. The festival ended 2/25, but the peak zone of related cases didn't take place until 3/28 - 4/12, and at the peak there were above 2,000 new cases per day hitting the system. We need to move slowly and carefully on this.
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@anny791 Tell me about it :( Minnesota is showing clear exponential virus spread (doubling time under 10 days) yet the plan is to re-open soon. They had 5 most-new-cases-in-a-day records in the last 7 days. Maybe they can handle it at 400-500 new cases per day, but in a month from now when that goes up to 4,000+ new cases per day, what's their exit strategy?
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@anny791 To add again (sorry) I went back and looked at other major social gatherings that happened in Feb 2020 such as political rallies, then looked for subsequent spikes in daily new cases. It seems the delay between a large event and the spike in related cases is around 42 days +/- 4 days. It looks as if Trump's rallies may have been the main virus seeding events in Nevada, Colorado, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Arizona.
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@arnoschmadt2686 Everyone with more than 2 brain cells knows that not all who catch it die or even show symptoms - but no one will argue that (until an effective treatment or vaccine emerges) more cases will produce more deaths.
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