Comments by "surely you joke, mein failüre" (@surelyyoujokemeinfailure7531) on "4th April, Disease spread and contagion" video.

It is actually a lot worse than just that. Of the 40 states that have lockdowns, some still permit church services. Local and interstate passenger traffic (all forms) still continues. The CFR gets decoupled from the penetration rates when hospital resources become overwhelmed, which is what will happen everywhere in the US soon. NYC is actually a best-case scenario for the US due to its relatively high quality of healthcare. Louisiana, Florida, Michigan will show what it's going to be like in most parts of the USA :(
3
This matter has already been studied. According to the linked table, Italy's normal death rate from seasonal flu is 8.15 per 100K, or 81.5 per million. Italy's coronavirus deaths are 243 per million and still rising (worldmeters data). https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/influenza-pneumonia/by-country/
1
@justsayin3600 The US rate is 149.1 per million for the regular flu (same table) and the covid-19 deaths per million rate has gone 15, 18, 22, 26 over the last 4 days. (worldmeters data) thanks
1
@justsayin3600 Yes. I believe that we in the US are due for a worse outcome than Italy or Spain. They went into this with much higher-quality healthcare systems, and still their death rates per million from covid-19 are 263 and 268 respectively vs case per million rates of 2133 and 2799 respectively. Over the past 4 days, the US case rate per million has gone 650, 740, 837, 941. As you can see it's accelerating upwards.
1