Comments by "Ken ibn Anak" (@kenibnanak5554) on "Econ Lessons" channel.

  1. Enjoyed this. Amazed we haven't seen anything from Joe Bogs or Perun about this yet. I have been saying this since day 3 of Ukraine's counter-SMO. Yours is the first video I have seen looking at the economic impact. You are 100% correct regarding Kursk being Russia's bread basket. For months Ukraine has been making no secret of the fact they believe the buffer zone Moscow has been yapping about for months should be on Russia's side of the border, not Ukraine's. As Ukraine has said in recent days, they don't want the land. Doing some checking of international military law, whatever Ukraine controls inside their AOR is theirs until Russia takes it back. The same theory Moscow has been saying since they invaded Crimea back in 2014. At the same time as long as the civilians are not harmed and permitted to leave (or stay as they choose) Ukraine has every legal right to raze everything to the ground when or if they leave. What the Romans used to call Salt Earth. Burn the crops, spread salt on the fields so nothing will grow there for years. An ancient practice. It was done in the US during our Civil War. Shermam's march through the South. Destroyed crops, 'rescued' livestock, and farms and burned cities. I fully expect whatever Ukraine finds in Kursk or Belgorod, be warehouses ofthings of value, gold found in small banks, weapons and munitions in military depots, all of that will be taken back to Ukraine for safe keeping when and if Ukraine leaves and many buildings will burn too. Perfectly legal as long as the civilians aren't harmed. Back in March 2022 there was a presentation by a Russian Duma captured on Russian Media Monitor (see https://x.com/i/status/1558544508404617222 ) in which he made a good presentation (with charts) and he explained the true motive behind the Russian SMO was the theft of about 12 Trillion dollars of Ukraine's geological, gas, oil and agricultural resources. So Russians understand the concept of taking captured resources home with them. We have a few months till harvest time, but I will be really surprised if Russia gets whatever is growing in Kursk this year, or next year or the year after that too. Forget GDP. Actual surplus cash income is more important. There is a lot of actual cash income flowing into Russia through that was their last pipeline to Europe. Hungary and some smaller places loved buying cheap Russian gas. That remaining pipeline flowed through a Gazprom monitoring facility in the now captured town of Sudzha. Within a day of Ukraine announcing (and verifying) that it had captured the Gazprom facility Russian artillery eliminated it. Kind of a stupid dog in the manger thing. Although I had personally been in favor of Ukraine using a few blocks of Semtex or C4 to blow it to pieces, Russia's artillery saved them the trouble. There are plenty of satellite and drone images of the destruction. Hungary will have to buy LNG and put up wind farms just like everyone else. Much of Eastern Russia relies upon Russian railroads (since 25 years ago Putin decided building guns, tanks and missiles were better for his fantasy of world conquest than building silly infrastructure things like bridges and highways, or water treatment plants). Russia has numerous towns only reachable by train. Some in the far North are only reachable by airplane. To get goods from Europe to those places the rail roads are used. One of the major lines used (also would have been used to bring in Russian troops) to ship goods to the East goes through a familiar town now in the hands of Ukraine. Sudzha. There is another major rail hub just North of a small city called Kursk. It ships things to Moscow and points North. Personally I think any person in Kursk not already climbing onto a train leaving that city before the tracks are blown is crazy, but that is that person's choice. Speaking of Trust, in February 2022 the whole world watched Putin on TV assuring the world that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine. In reality he had signed the order for the invasio/SMO/war only 3 hours before he got on TV and told his lies. We have seen many more lies come from the moths of Russian officials since then. In the UN, on Russia 1 TV, on RT.com, in Turkey, etc. In many quarters it has become an accepted Maxim that if a Russian says so, it is a lie. 10 days ago, in a televised broadcast, we watched General Gerasimov lie to Putin's face (and the worlds) and tell him the incursion by Ukraine had been stopped and beaten back. They even lie to each other and at the highest levels. How do we know when Putin lies? His lips are moving. I wish Russia luck in (not really) in building back the trust of the planet. I don't think it is going to happen any time soon. I see some more economic drains on Russia you haven't mentioned. First the (thousands now) of captured Russian soldiers who have been removed to Ukraine as POWs. Most of them are young males in the prime of their life now removed from Russia's work force (and temporarily at least from the breeding stock as well (in a time of shrinking Russian demographics)). Second, Russian war refugees. Over 200,000 last night. Once Russian artillery arrives in Kursk and begins swapping artillery shells with the UAF those still inside the city of Kursk will probably knock that number up by another half million or so. War refugees are by definition homeless and almost always hungry. They will, lacking other options, mostly be heading to Moscow. That brings us back to the agriculture problem. Political and economic instability is what defeated GErmany in WWI. Militarily they had been pushed back, but were still a long way from being beaten. But the people around the Kaiser's palace were hungry and didn't like high taxes and unemployment, so he abdicated, Germany surrendered and the Kaiser fled. I don't see Putin as being smart enough to abdicate. Two elections ago would have been a good time for that. More likely I think around the time a Soweto style shanty town rises in Moscow, he will simply slip on a bannaa peel and fall out his white helicopter from 14,000 feet. What a tragedy. I don't know if any successor will be able to do much if there is no food for the people, and it is possible things will get really bad in whatever is left of the Russian Federation, or maybe the mobs trying to stay warm in the Kremlin (did we mention Russia's winter is not far away) will pull off a miracle and select someone sane they will accept. Dunno. However, I do know the counter-SMO of Ukraine is really bad for Russia's economy. Who knows maybe when China realizes there is no more Russian Army on their Northern border and moves North, East of the Urals, they will bring some food with them. In the meanwhile those of us in the US will follow the Tik-Toc Army commanders televised advice and munch on popcorn and watch on TV. I own guns, but I am voting for Harris not Trump because I believe seeing Russia fall is more important than my AR.. I can always melt down some soda cans, make some billets and make another AR or pistol if I need one. afterwards.
    6
  2. I have been forecasting a return by Russia to the usage of ox carts for hauling supplies for over a year and a half. As the war and sanctions continue how are they going to get new bearings and other parts for their railroads? Who is going to maintain their bridges and (few) highways without young men to do the work? Where will spare parts for their planes come from? How many of Russia's cities and towns are completely dependent on rail and aircraft for the logistics? How many of them are even accessible without rail or air transport? Can Russia convert it's tank factory to making freight airplanes? Or steam locomotives? Yes Russia can buy cheap copies of Bridgeport lathes and mill machines from Grizzly (China), but pay for them with what? How will they transport them without a transit system? Are there enough trained machinists left alive in Russia (as opposed to laying dead in Ukraine) to rebuild Russia's rail, aircraft and automotive machine industry from scratch? Then there is the coming issue of how to get food distributed without a transit system that works.. I remember when the Soviet army was planting potatoes to feed itself in the early 1990s and note that much of N. Korea's army spends time fishing and farming. I anticipate many residents of St. Petersburg and Moscow trying to raise vegetables in city parks within the next year or two, but we shall see. Grab your popcorn and watch.
    2
  3. They may be having problems with payments outside of Russia as their Ministry of Finance website has been doing timeouts for awile now which implies a payment issue.
    2
  4. How do we make the sanctions against Russia permanent and totally separate them from the invasion of Ukraine so that they won't be lifted when Trump arranges his truce?
    1
  5. It is very probable they will not freeze Putin's account nor that of many oligarch's. It is everyone else in Russia that has the problem. That is as they deserve for supporting 20 years of Putin.
    1