Comments by "" (@willemvandebeek) on "The Most Controversial Problem in Philosophy" video.
-
I disliked, however, I do not agree that the probability of tails Monday = 25% & tails Tuesday = 25%.
Tails Monday = 50%, and that probability is carried over to Tuesday, because in that sleeping beauty scenario Monday = Tuesday.
This is why it is definitely not the first option, where heads Monday = 33%, tails Monday = 33%, & tails Tuesday = 33%.
As you explained, adding more days will decrease the probability of heads Monday, which is ridiculous.
Therefore tails Monday, tails Tuesday, tails Wednesday, etc. become cumulatively -> tails Someday, which all have 50% probability.
1