Comments by "Nigel Johnson" (@nigeljohnson9820) on "EU will not trigger 'safeguard clause' over vaccine exports to Northern Ireland" video.
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@SnackAttack6 the moral is to be careful what you wish for. It is interesting that the UK internal markets bill would have broken the WA inorder to maintain trade between the UK and NI. The latest move from the EU would have broken the WA to deprive NI of covid vaccine.
I suspect the intention was originally to force NI into the arms of the south, and by extension the EU.
The EU wants to increase trade with NI at the expense of the rUK, but the last thing it wants is Irish reunification, as that would shift the NI financial and political liability from the UK to the EU.
It is possible that the UK government secretly favours such a move, as it would provide a significant windfall for the rest of the UK and eliminate the long-term festering political wound that Ireland represents.
While this might be the UK government's real ambition, it cannot possible express that in public. Much better if the motivation comes from the EU and the south, then not only can the UK receive a financial windfall but also a political one, as it will be the EU that takes the blame and suffers any retribution by die-hard loyalists.
For the UK government, it is important that the loyalists do not feel rejected by the UK, but disaffected by a combination of the south and the EU. Then any paramilitary retribution with not fall on the UK, but is directed where it belongs.
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@SnackAttack6 it is simply an analysis of the politics, and I cannot say if it is correct, it is just an opinion. But given that NI costs the UK far more than our old EU membership fee, the UK government has billions of motivation, particularly as now the EU has effectively taken control of northern Ireland. Under the circumstances, NI is unlikely to get much financial infrastructure investment from the UK, it would be pouring money down the drain, as it would be transferred to the south under reunification. The process put in place will result in positive feedback, driving NI towards reunification. When the EU understands what is happening, you can expect them to resist, for in the eyes of both the republic and the EU, reunification is an ideal best left to tomorrow or the day after, or much later.
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