Comments by "Nigel Johnson" (@nigeljohnson9820) on "Ukraine: Blinken defends Germany after Kyiv criticises Berlin over Russia stance" video.
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@miguelmelchior986 no one wants a war, but if Putin attempts to invade the Ukraine, his troops will meet strong resistance.
The west will apply significant sanctions on russian and there is a good chance that the west will get dragged into the conflict, first through military support and then direct involvement. Putin is banking on a decadent west being week and no longer willing to stand up to russian aggression. His tactics are straight out of Hitler's play book, but at some point the west will react, just as they did before. The difference is that the stakes are much higher, with the risk of a nuclear exchange. It is worth noting that during the cold war, Russia was thought to have military superiority in conventional weapons, it is was the American plan to stop any mass tank advance with tactical nuclear weapons. It is a matter of principle that Russia cannot dictate who its neighbours chose as their military allies, or how they chose to defend themselves. They are soverign nations and have the right to make these decisions. If press reports are to be believed, Putin wants disarm his neighbours, so that Russia can exert pressure on them when ever it likes.
It has been obvious for some time that Putin sees the fall of the old Soviet Union as an embarrassment, and intends to rebuild it,even if the former USSR satellite countries, who are now free, do not want any part of it. Otherwise, it is difficult to see what Russia is concerned about. There is absolutely no chance that NATO forces are going to invade russian territory, or even set foot on it.
Russia is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons and has deployed hypersonic missiles, so the range of NATO weapons is really not an issue. Just as during the cold war, it would be madness for the west to conduct a preemptive strike on Russia,so that is not going to happen. But if Russia attacks it's neighbours, the west will see it as a threat and respond.
The wild card, is the actions of the extreme nationalists on both sides, who could trigger a war. It is these people that each side must control.
It is unfortunate that the EU destabilised Ukraine by encouraging it to apply for EU membership. Prior to this Ukraine was acting as an unofficial buffer between the west and Russia, now it is impossible to go back to that status without one side or the other losing face.
And that is important, as so much of the former quasi stability was about uncertainty and bluff.
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