Comments by "Joe Qi" (@i6power30) on "VisualEconomik EN"
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@steinwaldmadchen You need to do more research. Energy density is only one metric. CATL is capable of making the same batteries as Panasonic, but they have gone way beyond that. Their latest LFP batteries have almost same energy density, but with 3 times charge cycles and lifespan, and much safer than Japanese or Korean batteries when it comes to fire resistance. Same with Zeekr Golden battery, able to withstand 1000 degree fire, and charge in -21 degrees in 8 minutes, 500 km range. Oh, and at half the cost of Panasonic. Japan and Korea batteries are last generation. I'm sorry you are wrong again.
Tesla pefers to use CATL batteries, in fact they do in China and Europe, and even some models shipped to Canada comes with CATL batteries, but not for US due to trade sactions. CATL batteries are safer, and have longer service life with almost no degradation for 15+ years. Also you don't need to worry about charging to 100%. With Panasonic batteries, they recommend not charging to 100% too often, only to 80% capacity most times. Tesla is building a CATL factory in America to get around the trade tarrifs, and so is Ford. They are using CATL technology and equipment, but owned by Tesla and Ford. Panasonic has been losing market share to CATL and BYD for the past 5 years, and continue to lose. If Japan is so much superior than China why are they losing market share? um?
When it comes to fire safety, all the latest EV fires are caused by LG chem's batteries. Google BYD blade batteries, Zeekr Golden batteries, they do not explode or catch fire like LG or Panasonic batteries even when penetraded by a nail. Another win for China, Japan fades into irrelevance.
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@steinwaldmadchen I do understand all that. Japanese tunnel vision on energy density is stupid. Why would I want a high energy density battery that's highly reactive and easily catch fire, and only has 1500 charge cycles? when I can get LFP battery with slightly less energy density, but last 2 - 3 times longer in charge cycles and much more stable and safer? For average consumers, you don't need high performance sports EVs, but reliable, safe cars that gets you from point A to point B and last for years and years without degradation. CATL is in the lead in LFP battery chemistry, and their latest Shenxing battery has 208wh/kg at system level, enabling some 700 - 1000 km range EVs. That's more than enough for 99% of use cases.
If you are fixated on solid state then fine. Again Chinese is leading the way. Nio already has a semi solid state battery in production, it's expensive, I don't see it being competitive with other Chinese EVs. when full solid state batteries do come out, it'll be even more expensive, no one will buy them. In fact I think it'll be Chinese company, not a Western one that will first bring full solid state battery to mass production if it ever becomes a thing.
Toyota has been promsing EVs with solid state battery for 12 years. They had the first RAV4 EV in the 90s. Look how fast Chinese are innovating vs Japanese vs American legacy autos (excluding Tesla). The speed of innovation is many folds faster for the Chinese. At this pace, there is no way American or Japanese can catch up to China, the gap will just keep getting wider with protectionism, because Japanese autos just announced they are sticking with the ICE, not going all in on EVs, as it'll be no threat to them now that US market will still have ICE demand for decades to come thanks to Chinese EV tarrifs, consumers have no choice, but to keep buying dirty old gasoline cars because non-Chinese EVs will be too expensive.
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@steinwaldmadchen Those Hans were built in 2021 or before, using older generation of blade batteries which had NMC chemistry. And not that many compared to major Western brands. Tesla had 198 spontaneous fires as of 2023. And famous Chevy Bolt EV recalled 69000 of them due to defective LG Chem batteries that caused 16 fires. And recently, the same LG chem batteries used in Jaguar i-Pace and Volvo XC90,XC60 also caused several fires while charging. But media likes to FUD BYD and other Chinese EV makers don't they? They feed people like you to want to believe Chinese inferiority, and Western exceptionalism.
Tesla and Ford are building CATL battery factories in the US to get around tarrifs licensning CATL's LFP battery patents and equipment. Once they are complete, US automakers will be able to build Chinese quality EVs (that's a good thing, not a bad thing as most of you think), and offer to consumers. Panasonic and LG chem will keep losing market share to CATL and BYD, regardless of tarrifs and restrictions. Companies will find a way to build the most competitive products at lowest cost, regardless of the country of origin. Tarrifs and trade restrictions are just a temporary inconvinience.
If BYD was so bad why does Toyota chooses to partner with them? Toyota developed BZ4X, and BZ3X with BYD, and recently Toyota adopted BYD's PHEV DM-i platform essentially, will be rebadging BYD cars as Toyota. Doesn't Toyota care about quality, safety and reliability? Clearly, they could have chosen to partner with Koreans or GM? Clearly, they did their homework and figured Korean and American EV tech and batteries are even more fire prone and unreliable.
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@steinwaldmadchen You clearly never owned an EV, jumping immediately to compare energy density of batteries to gasoline / diesels. Any EV owner will tell you range is not an issue. The main challenge is charging speed, and access to charging infrastructure. LFP batteries are superior in charging as it can be charged at higher rate due to its chemical stability, and to 100% without damaging its longevity unlike NMC chemistry. If I had to choose, LFP every time over NMC. Japanese autos like Toyota like to talk about solid state this and hydrogen that.. because they want those moonshot projects to remain in R&D phase forever so they can keep selling their ICE cars telling people that EVs with the current lithium-ion chemistry are not good enough. Give us more time to come up with solid state or hydrogen fuel cell. then, it'll be 10x more expensive than the current EVs. Oops, poeple will still choose ICE cars over those expensive options. They are not serious about electrification at all.
If BYD was so bad why does Toyota chooses to partner with them? Toyota developed BZ4X, and BZ3X with BYD, and recently Toyota adopted BYD's PHEV DM-i platform essentially, will be rebadging BYD cars as Toyota. Doesn't Toyota care about quality, safety and reliability? Clearly, they could have chosen to partner with Koreans or GM? Clearly, they did their homework and figured Korean and American EV tech and batteries are even more fire prone and unreliable.
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@steinwaldmadchen we can agree to disagree but the reality is Japanese autos are losing market share in markets where Chinese EVs are not heavily tariffed. The trend will continue. Toyota's strategy to "wait" may be the result of inability to innovate as fast as Chinese EVs and Tesla. You are wrong about EVs remain as a niche market very wrong. Maybe in places like US and Japan where legacy autos are lobbying hard against EV adoption. Norway is almost 100% EV now, and China is 50% (new car sales). Even here in Canada, it's approaching 15%. That's far from being niche.
LFP batteries while slightly lower energy density, has much longer service life, 2-3x charge cycles, and lower cost, and does not require rare earth metals like nickle, therefore much more environmentally friendly. How many people need to drive more than 50 miles a day? Even last gen LFP battery EVs have over 200 miles range. There is absolutely no need to go over that with higher density NMC chemistry which comes with many negative properties such as unable to charge to 100% without degradation effects.
The key for EV adoption is charging infrastruction. China is doing a lot better than the US, whille Europe is somewhere in the middle. Biden's inflation reduction Act budgetted 7.5B for EV charging network, after 2 years, only 7 chargers were built. It's pathetic how innefficient and corrupt the US compared to China when it comes to efficiency of public projects. Most of that money probably went to line venture capitalists pockets instead of going into the real work.
Though not still not perfect, You can't help but to be impressed by China's pace of innovation, and how fast the quality of their cars has risen in such a short span of time. We can argue all our lives and compare specific brands short comings to no end, but if you look at over all, most of high end Chinese EV brands quality are about equal that of high end European brands, and much better than American GM / Ford. Sure out of over 100 EV brands in China, there are still low end, poor quality ones, but top tier brands such as Zeekr, Nio, Geely, Xpeng, BYD are making amazing cars. And their technology and manufacturing methods are exceeding most of Western legacy autos and neck to neck with Tesla. Just imagine in another 5 years, the gap could widen even more, and we will still be waiting for Toyota's solid state promise that will never come, but they will do fine selling gas guzzling 4 runners, and land cruisers to hard core Toyota fans in Amuuurica.
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@steinwaldmadchen Vast of fires on BYD vehicles were their PHEVs, not BEVs which uses older generation of inferior batteries. The current and next gen. BYD blade batteries are extremely fire resistant, won't catch fire even penetrated with nail. Same with CATL ShenXing batteries. If you look at the statistics all cars by insurance institutes, BEV fires are 60 times less likely than ICE car fires, and PHEV fires are twice more likely than ICE car fires. and BYD makes a lot of PHEVs in China, but none of their BEV cars caught fire.
I've owned 3 EVs since 2017, and here in Canada, 10% of Teslas sold used to come from China (though not anymore, since Canadian government just followed the US EV tarrifs on Chinese EVs.) I'm actively involved in EV community forums, and general consensus is that LFP batteries are superior to NMC chemistry despite slightly lower energy density, but the longevity and charging characteristics (you can charge to 100% without worrying about degradation) more than make up for it. In fact most Tesla buyers here ask how they can get their hands on Teslas made in Shanghai because they will come equipped with CATL LFP batteries, instead of regular Panasonic cells if it were made in the US.
Why are Chinese still researching NMC and solid state chemistry? Because it's a big country with lots of brains! The same reason, the US researchers are researching all kinds of subjects in every directions. You never know where you will find the next breakthrough. LFP for now is clearly the leader and consumers choice when it comes to EV batteries
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