Comments by "Joe Qi" (@i6power30) on "The Electric Viking"
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5 years is long term? hahahah. If any car requires major maintenance and repair cost it's a lemon! or had been abused. Wait till EVs need repairs at year 8 and beyond, all of its parts and labour are more expensive than ICE car at the moment. I'm not just talking about batteries which will pretty much write off your EV if it needs replacement. For example, AC or heat pump costs more to replace than AC units in a ICE car, among many other things. Battery pack is the biggest risk. If just one module or cell goes bad,, or BMS circuit is fried, the entire pack needs to be replaced. Rarely can they be taken apart and repaired. Whereas, a ICE car's engine can be repaired at fraction of cost (timing belt, spark plugs, coolant pumps etc. ) Yes, there are many more things can go wrong in ICE cars, but each repair is much less than the entire battery pack of an EV. A well built and maintained ICE car shouldn't have things constantly go wrong with it, especially it's from reliable brands such as Toyota and such. European brands will bankrupt you when they are old though, it depends on brands and model .
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ICE cars and EVs age differently. ICE ages on wear and tears (mileage), EV batteries age on calendar aging and charging cycles, no wear and tears. So the ideal use case for EVs is high mileage use, especially in city driving, they beat ICE cars by far. But if you are low mileage user (less than 10kkm per year), or, your battery will still degrade with time anyway, you are not getting your money worth. If you are a grandma only driving to church every Sunday, and only use 2000km per year, then you better off with ICE car, because then it will probably last 30+ years, many military vehicles are 50 years old because they are only occassionally used for excercise, very low mileage, but regularly moved around. The real problem with modern EVs is all the high tech gadgets that breakdown and require high repair cost. You will face thousands of $$$ repair bills for infotainment, electronics, control modules etc. way before you need to replace batteries.
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@whynotstartusingyourbrain8726 You need to get your head checked. I never said I don't know how to operate a Tesla, I'm saying it's less robust and intuitive because you have to use your eyes to look at touch screen to touch the correct spot. That takes attention away from driving, and is dangerous, and longer reaction delays. With physical controls, once you are familiar with the position, you can just reach down with your hand and push, pull, twist or whatever, you don't need to look, you can feel it with your hand. Tesla removed physical controls in favour of touch screen because they want to cut cost, not to benefit consumers.
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On extending EV life, the current culture of pairing everything high tech with EVs are the main problem of high maintenance / repair costs of older EVs, not the batteries. Many electronics components, infotainment touch screen, autonomous sensors etc, breakdown as they age, and requiring tremendous repair costs. It's fine to have bells and whistles, but I wish EV makers would focus on making more robust, reliable EVs than depending core functionality on high tech gadgets. ie. If one or some of these bells and whistles stop working, you can still operate the car without costly repairs - don't put all the core functionality in the stuck on tablet touch screen. When it goes out, you can't use the car at all. It needs to be more reliable and long lasting.
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I'm a big proponent of PHEVs. If you plug it in as much as you can, it's all good. I don't support those who drive it without pluging in. If you drive 95% of time on pure EV mode, and only 5% miles when you are in a pinch or emergency or can't find charging station, it's really beats BEV knowing that PHEV can save your ass in emergency situations. Also I tried looking for increased fire risk in PHEVs, couldn't find any source. Maybe it's BYD's PHEV specific problem. I drive a Volvo XC90 PHEV, never heard any fires in my owner's forum or media. Even BYD's PHEVs had some incidents of fires, I don't see it as permanent flaw that cannot be fixed. PHEVs aren't that complicated, and can be easily improved as technology matures.
Another plus for PHEV is that I live in a big city in Canada. In winter months, being stuck in traffic due to accident or weather, if you want to run EV battery to keep yourself warm and comfortable, it can quickly drain the battery and get stranded or worse suffer hypothermia. On those rare situations, having a PHEV you know you can survive by running petrol engine for a while to keep yourself warm. Is it really worth your health and safety just to go pure EV some kind of green tech idiology? I think PHEV is the best of both worlds, and cutting 95% of emission is good enough. Trying to squeeze out the last 5% of emission to sacrifice convinence and safety, is it worth it?
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@whynotstartusingyourbrain8726 I have an infant child sleeping in the car, what if I don't want to use my voice? Or I'm having a conversation with my passenger, voice control is extremely annoying you have to stop the flow of conversation, and wait for voice control to respond. It's still too slow compared to just grab and push by hand without looking. My 2006 BMW had nearly everything controllable with voice control also, but I rarely use it, voice control is just not as useful and I find it tiring always having to talk to something / somebody, when I just want a quiet time in my car.
Last time when I still had my model 3, I could not even get car to change temperature with voice control. Maybe "software update" has fixed it, but that's another thing annoys me about Tesla, they always push things off to next software update, next software update. Sometimes updates break other things. They should just get at least basic functions right the first time, intead of constantly changing things around to confuse users.
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$5000 incentives apply to Toyota PHEVs, it depends on battery sizes. Smaller battery PHEVs only get 2500. But RAV4 and Prius primes get $5000 rebates.
Cold climates do pose unique challenges to EV operation, not just range, but how long you can stay on road while keeping warm. For example, we were stuck in a traffic jam for 1.5 hours moved only 10km during that time. My EV consumed nearly 20 kwh during that time in -15C keeping my family and myself warm. Luckily, my was also an PHEV, so I could run the engine for 5 minutes, and shut it off for next 20 minutes while the climate fan blows the residual heat from the engine to help use less battery. It beats pure ICE cars which have to idle engine the whole time consuming much more fuel. Even without traffic congestion, I run the ICE for the first 5 min of trip, and use the residual heat from it to keep the cabin warm for the remaining 20 - 30 minutes of trip using electric motor only for motion, and none for heat. Heat pump is not very efficient in this kind of low temperature so it does little to help.
Of course ideally, if an EV came with a fuel based heater - either biofuel or ethenol based, it would completely remove the need for ICE and dramatically increase the efficiency and range ot EV in extreme cold weather. But I can only dream and hope.
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@nickmcconnell1291 Nah, I already knew video generation was possible even 5 years ago, it was just matter of waiting for faster hardware and packaging it nicely for consumers like Open AI did. There is nothing revolutionary here.
A pocket calculator can do multiplication millions times faster than humans, doesn't mean it can reason. AI machine learning can play chess better, can generate videos based on pattern matching, doesn't mean it can reason. Humans can learn from a handful examples, machine learning models need millions. They lack flexibility and general reasoning of human brain. In a game simulation, maching learning algorithm will be eatn by a lion a million times in various different ways before it learns to avoid it every time, not just sometimes. Even the dumbest human players will learn to avoid lions EVERY time, after just being eaten once, or twice.
That's why sometimes you get werid mistakes from AI, such as a realistic looking picture of a farmer, but he has 6 fingers in one hand. Or videos with 3 wolves emerging out of just one body. Sometimes in Tesla FSD, a glare or smoke, or flash or light will make it mistaken for sometime else, and brake hard. It's all just examples of werid errors even the dumbest humans will not make. They cannot generalize and reason in broader context. All we are doing now with the current AI is improving task-specific level, making them more accurate and faster, but will never be able to adapt and be flexible like humans.
What if FSD car encounters a police officer redirecting traffic with hand gestures? How many different hand gesture data examples does it need to be trained on before it can accurately and reliably handle all situations? Not all police officers do gestures the same way, not all of them wear the same uniform, some have gloves on, some don't, some use 1 finger, some uses 3 fingers etc. etc.
What if there is a road rage, can AI read the "emotions" of the scene? Humans can sense danger and steer away from such situations. There many many such examples that the current AI machine learning bots simply unable to handle as well as humans can intuitively.
I've been in this field many years. I hate to use the term AI because we don't have it yet. What we have is machine learning model of nueral network, which is not a model of human brain or mind, but simply a computer algorithm optimized for pattern reconition and reconstructure. It does not have ability to reason or understand which are both required for being called intelligent.
You can ask a machine to generate a picture or a video of roomful of people at party. Then Ask the machine learning AI what is the vibe or mood of the roomful of people, and who is at the center of attention. Is he/she feeling happy or sad? It will not be able to answer these simple questions, but average humans can effortlessly.
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@doittoit00 We still don't have FSD - nothing is "fully driving itself" yet. Yes, there were a lot of improvement, but still not good enough to fully replace human, and won't be for many years. It's easy to conquer the first 95%, it's the last 5% edge cases that's exponentially harder, and it's the last 0.1% that's almost impossible. Read my other reply, you will see what I mean. It's not just needing more data more compute etc. You need a fundamentally different architecture.
You can throw all the money in the world at it (brute force machine learning), all you will achieve is smaller and smaller incremental imrovements, but fundamentally will not achieve AGI, by extension, no true level 4, 5 FSD.
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@asean1015 I don't know about Korea, but I lived in China, Japan and the US. I have never had to use fax in business transactions or government forms, but only occassionaly for doctor's prescription to pharmacy which I think is truly outdated as well. For mobile payments, China has been cashless for well over a decade, but to this day, you still need to carry some cash with you when you go out, as a lot of small businesses still only accept cash, and vending machines only takes coins. Even in the US and Canada, I haven't used cash for last 5 years or so, maybe only in farmer's market.
As for EVs, it is a well established fact that carbon emission associated with EV and battery manufacturing is significantly less than the emission produced by ICE vehicles during its lifespan, by 3 - 5X. I think Toyota's solid state plan is purely marketting, I don't see it ever come to fruition. Sorry bud
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@CorwynGC I don't know why you keep coming back to comparing EVs and ICE as an argument against mine. I already said electric drivetrains are more robust than ICE, but I wish some EVs would rid of finicky computers and electronics is the single point of failure in controlling critical functions of vehicle such as selecting drive / reverse / park, HVAC, turn signals, lights. ideally should be physical controls so they would don't get all disabled because your stuck-on tablet goes dark or need reboot in the middle of driving. And if they break, anyone can just replace a burnt out fuse or relay, rather than having to change the entire computer and control module.
That big center screen is only necessary for infotainment and navigation, and should be optional for those who need it. I know it will cost more if there was that level of customization, but I think there is a substantial unmet market for simpler analog EVs. But curently, every new EV is somehow expected to be computer on wheels, I think it's almost a myth and misconception that EVs need to be high tech or else they wouldn't work.
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@KP-xi4bj Your bias is based on old perception of inferior Chinese quality and not keeping up to date with the latest development. The fires you cited are usually PHEV, or older models of BYD cars that used previous generation of batteries, or are PHEVs. The current generation of BYD blade batteries, and CATL LFP batteries are far safer and infact industry leader, well ahead of Korean and Japanese competition by a mile. Then there is the cutting edge Zeekr Golden battery that will withstand fire up to 1000 degrees without catching fire. Beat that Panasonic or LG?
LG to pay up to $1.9 billion to General Motors over Bolt EV battery fires - October 2022, CNBC
General Motors recalls 140,000 Chevrolet Bolt EVs over fire risks - December 2022, CNBC
Chevy Bolt EV That Missed Battery Recall Spontaneously Combusts On Mass. Driveway - August, 2023, Carscoops
EV Jaguar 'spontaneously' catches fire while charging in garage - January 2024, Fox31
Tesla catches fire at charging station - New Orleans WWLTV, March 2024 - Note that Teslas sold in America use Panasonic or LG batteries, not Chinese due to tax incentive qualification rules.
BYD Switches to EV Batteries It Says Won’t Ever Catch Fire - BNN Bloomberg, August 2023
The same new fire-resistant materials the battery cell is made out of are claimed to not explode when subjected to extreme heat, which is reassuring, and to prove it Zeekr says when dropped in a fire pit at a temperature of 700C the Golden Battery didn't ignite or detonate for more than 240 seconds - December 2023, EV Central
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@sergiomomesso1590 It depends how cold outside is. Heat pump loses efficiency below - 5, and consumption of electricity for heating becomes real drain as it gets colder outside, and becomes a serious concern of getting stranded if you don't have enough juice to drive to a charging station. A 1lb bottle of propane will last 5 - 6 hours of heating, no matter how cold outside is, it produces the same amount of heat from burning fire. That's way more robust than heat pump trying to extract heat from the environment when it's too cold outside.
You said 22 C setting, but I doubt it will ever achieve it if it's too cold outside. Whereas, heat from buring fire can easily make you feel cozy warm, no matter how cold outside is, there is simply no comparison with lukewarm heat pump. Energy density of any fuel - propane, alcohol, kerosine, are about 20x that of average EV battery. Again, no comparison. And there is no waste in energy when burning fuel for heat, unlike trying to get motion out of it, it's only 30% efficient. Extracting heat from fuel is 100% efficient, no waste.
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@Ryan-ff2db again you are talking about daily fluctuations. Work - sleep, work - sleep, predictable peak / off peak etc.
This does not apply for one off events like concerts or sports events or peak summer travel season. A lot of people with EVs arrive from out of town to attend some event / concert / conference. They all NEED to charge at that time or they cannot go home. It's not like they can wait till off peak time in the middle of the night to charge. They probably all require DC fast charging on that day before they can drive home.
With gas stations, you can simply stock up more fuel in anticipation of such event. With DC fast charging, you need massive battery storage locally, that's going to add cost also, or have extra grid capacity which is probably even more expensive. And you need 3 - 4 times the number of charging stalls as gas pumps because it takes that much longer for DC charging vs filling up liquid fuel. All in all, electricity is efficient and cost effective for predicatble regular daily activities - work, go home, charge while sleep etc. But it's less robust for one-off events like concert, sports games, peak summer / Christmas travel seasons. Or if you want to achieve the same robustness as liquid fueled vehicles, you will need to invest in a lot of excess grid or battery capacity for redundancy that will add to the average electricity rate.
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@PropanePete As for your 2006 VW, you are but just one data point. I don't see many 10 year old VW on road or command any high resale value at least here in Canada. Maybe it's different in Europe where repair maintenaince cost is lower. But in Canada / maybe US as well, all European cars have very high repair costs compared to domestic / Japanese ICE cars. If you claim Japanese ICE cars have longevity it might make more sense, but European cars are complete garbage past warranty period. You can see their resale value fall off cliff for European luxury brands such as Audi, BMW, Merc... all high maintenance junk after they are 6 -7 years ood. - meaning you can keep them running, but at a cost higher than getting a new one.
ICE cars can last longer if you are meticulous on maintenance, and drive low mileage. for EVs, Chinese battery makers such as BYD blade, and CATL produces batteries last 2 - 3 times longer in excess of 15+ years without significant degradation, compared to Panasonic cells that only last about 10 years / 1500 charging cycles. CATL's LFP batteries last 3000 charging cycles with 85% capacity remaining. That is the current fact. As for China's cultural revolution in the distant history affects its current society and in turn have negative effect on their products is pure conjecture on your part, not a proven fact.
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@KP-xi4bj I don't plan to keep it after warranty. Most of EVs have high repair cost as well, don't plan to keep any EVs after warranty either. As for depreciation, it's no worse than pure EVs either. I don't see much downside other than $150 oill change per year, which is neglegible really.
For my use case, having a PHEV is actually greener than equivalent BEVs, as its battery pack is only 20% of equivalent BEVs, thus the upfront carbon footprint for making the battery pack is way smaller. I rarely use ICE at all, 98% of miles are in pure EV mode, and I charge at home with solar panel. It's not for anyone who takes long road trips often, but I don't so it works for me. I only go out of town once a year if at all, but having an ICE as a backup should there be any emergency gives me a peace of mind, not having to look for charging stations or wait in queue.
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@KP-xi4bj Yes I do live in a very congested city - Toronto. But given my driving history, the chances of getting into an accident should be equal whether I drive a Volvo or Tesla. The only thing that matters to insurance company is the repair cost. Even though my Volvo's MSRP is 60% higher than Tesla model 3, the insurance premium is 20% less? I never had an accident on my 2019 model 3, but my father had a rear bumper hit a light pole and damaged turn signal lights and bumper. The whole repair took 2.5 months, most of time waiting for parts. The insurance offered a rental car, but he refused because it was an ICE car. Long wait time for the repair means insurnace company has to pay for the rental car too, increasing the burden on insurance.
No I'm not mad, just saying that when I give you a stat based on overall EV repair cost, you counter with a stat on repair cost only for Tesla, which is clearly incongruent, or you having a cognitive dissonance automatically equating all EVs to be Teslas, which are not t completely equal. While Tesla is the leader, but they aren't even the majority of US EV market share as of June 2024. They used to be 75% in 2019, but now, it's 49.5% just under half. Globally, they have even less market share.
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@litestuffllc7249 Did you know BWM recalled 90,000 vehicles due to risks of spontaenous fire risk in 2022? So your gas car fire has to be damaged is wrong. Many many petrol cars catch fire spontaenously when parked, Average ICE cars have just as many electronics and computers on them as EVs in modern times. And most fires start with electrical short circuit.
As for hand picking vehicles for crash test, Euro NCAP is an independent test, they purchase vehicles at random to conduct test, not asking permissions from manufacturers. As for faking crash tests with hand picked vehicles, none gets better honor than Toyota. Toyota Admits Some Daihatsu Crash Test Cars Were Rigged For Better Results - Motor1 - May 2023 Also, 60 million Takata airbags were recalled due to failure to deploy in accidents - another hall markt of Japanese quality eh?
Also did you forget VW diesel gate scandal? People are too eager to jump on stereotypical image of poor quality of Chinese knockoffs right? But very quickly forget poor quality and outright cheating by the Western companies.
Consumers complains about all sorts of issues. According to carcomplaints . co m, top models received complaints are Ford explorer, Toyota Rav4 etc. Go figure Read them stories, some are quite shocking and scary.
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@sd70cal I beg to differ. Cars will never be like a computer. Cars by definition are moving all the time, whereas computers are mostly stationary. Just because EVs have no engine, there are still wheels, suspension, liquid cooling system, heat pump, HVAC compressors, charging inverter. all kinds of stuff can wear out and break. Mileage is only one measure of longevity, calendar aging is another. Many components wear out with time, even when the car is not driven. Rubbers crack, metals rust. Electronic components such as capacitors, sensors have about 8- 10 years of service life. Wiring corrosion if exposed to moisture. Cars are outdoor animals, exposed to extreme temperatures, and vibration all the time, need to be built much more robust than a computer.
For example, Tesla's BMS and cells are integrated battery modules, typically BMS wear out before cells, but since they are integrated, the whole module need to be replaced. Rivian on the other hand separate BMS from battery cells. So when BMS goes out, it can be replaced seperatedly at a fraction of cost. The trade off is that packaging is a little bulkier with separate BMS from cells.
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@nickmcconnell1291 You couldn't be more wrong. I've been in AI research for over 10 years, and it's amazing to see Elon Must has not a faintest grasp of fundamental difference between brute force machine learning and AGI. He is trying to apply something rudimentary and inefficient to a task that requires more flexibility and complexity in a completely different nature. You can have 1000000 trillion miles of driving data, and 100000 trillion times faster computer than 1000000 trillion NVDIA A100 GPU running in parallel training the neuro-network for 10000 trillion years, it will still not be as good as flexivility and intuition of a chimpanzee's brain.
Just because the machine learning algorithm can generate realistic looking videos (which is specific task), it doesn't have flexibility of reasoning and adapbility. For example, Ask it to read emotion or vibe of the room filled with various people, it will have no clue.
Human brains takes just a few exmaples (a dozen or so), and 1/10000 of energy to learn a new task. The best machine learning algorithm takes magnitude more than that. It screams bruteforce, and the real AI breakthrough doesn't come from faster chips, or more data, it will come from a more elegant architecture, and maybe years away even at academic levels. All these mad chase for FSD etc is fool's errand. I will bet 1 million dollars, FSD will not come in 2 year,s not in 10 years.
Just have another analogy. Your pocket calculator can do multiplication a million times faster than you, does it mean it's smarter than you? Sure the machine learning took pocket calculator to the next level, it can do pattern recognition, and even reconstruct based on some inputs, but they are still TASK-SPECIFIC. It cannot do general learning like humans do, and and key is that it takes million times more data to learn from - meaning they cannot reason and generalize like humans. In a game, They have to be eaten by lions 100000 times in various ways before they learn to run from lions. Humans will learn it after just a couple of times even for the most stupid players.
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@rsmonge We don't make decisions only based on numbers alone, it's too simple minded. If nuclear power plants are so safe on paper causes less fatalities than natural gas plants, why aren't we building nuclear plants like crazy? Not in most democratic countries at least. It's because when it does fail, it can be catastrophic, many magnitude worse than when a coal or natural gas power plants fail or leaks polution.
Back to Self-Driving cars. Any statistics about fatalities are based on past history, it doesn't tell you about any future black swan events. Because all cars of a given brand use the same software. If there were to be a bug or malicious hacker causes all cars to misbehave deadly ways all at same time, it will be 10 million accidents and 1 million deaths on that day alone, causing a spike anomaly in your statistics chart. Humans are more resilient as we are a distributed system, everyone has a different brain. Though humans are not perfect on individual basis, but it is nearly impossible for all humans to make deadly mistakes all at once, at same time.
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@EnriqueThiele True. Europe is doing a lot better than America. Mainly due to availability of choices - they have Chinese imports, and many affordable brands. I worry mostly North American markets, dominated by just Tesla - no Chinese imports here, no affordable EVs, limited choices, also horrible infrastructure.
What happens when government subsidies and incentives run out? It's not going to last forever. In the end, EVs need to be price competitive, not just as new cars, but also longevity and reliability as well. Currently, a major downside of owning older EVs are repair cost. The way Tesla is doing business is not making them like disposable items, not giving third party shops ability to repair older Teslas. For now, it helps their bottom line, but in long run, it may affect older Tesla's resale value, and suvsequently, new buyers.
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