Comments by "jorge luis barrios mur" (@jorgebarriosmur) on "Hindustan Times"
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The ukranian army waited till the russians had occupied all the paved roads that led to Avdivka.
A counterattack on the flanks to regain control of one of the roads and to avoid the encircelment, made by the elite troops of the third brigade (succesors of the controversial "azov" batallion), was not succesfull, and the ukranians had to withdraw with heavy losses.
So, the defenders of Avdivka, facing another "Mariupol"-scenario, had to flee, using a path of earth that the weather had turned into mud, or cross directly the countryside on foot.
In the procces, they had to leave behind their wounded comrads, their heavy equipment and most of their amunition........
That`s not "withdrawing to avoid loosing lifes", that`s a grown *ss defeat and your troops running to save their lives!
Aditionally, the comanders of the sector have failed since 2014! ( ten years ago!,when the eastern parts of Ukraine rebelled and the fight began in the region) to build a proper second line of defence in case the enemy broke through the first. They probably thought that would never happen!
Remember the russian defences used to meet the ukranian counteroffensive, with layers and layers of fortifications, minefields, killing zones and obstacles? There is no such thing in the, mostly flat terrain, that surrounds Avdivca!
The defences that they have hastly assembled this last weeks will probably do little to stop the russian army (the mud, and their own logistical flaws will probably hold them back much more than anything the ukranians can achieve right now in this sector).
So yeah! Tell me again that this is not a defeat!
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The problem we are going to face when this war is over, is that Putin will have a 500.000 men strong army of seasoned veterans, with a lot of military hardware, and an industry completely dedicated to war production.
Dismanteling this miltary-based economic structure, and reverting to a civil one might be not easy, specially if the sanctions are kept in place (wich is most likely to happen, unless Ukraine assaults Moscow, Russia surrenders unconditionaly to NATO, allowing NATO-countrys to establish an ocupation-force on russian land, all russians stop speaking rusian and start to learn ukranian lenguage, and every western man gets the right to get intimate with any russian beauty whenever he feels in the mood).
In other words, FOR RUSSIA, IT WILL BE ECONOMICALLY ADVANTAGEOUS to start another conflict, to keep people working, production increasing, money flowing and moral high. A little bit like the Rome, in the lasts years of the republican phase, and the begining of the Imperial phase.
He will probably NOT invade any NATO country, because that would mean total war with the USA, but if I was was the president of any post-soviet republic in the middle east, I would carefully plan my exile in some western country, because surely Rusia is going to knock at my door any day soon.........
Of course, this could be avoided if, after the war, we revert the sanctions, help Russia back to civil production, and make peacefull trade more actractive for Russia than the other alternative.........but, as I said, this is not going to happen.....
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Let`s be real here. The ukranian gains at the begining of the war, were possible becuase the sheer incompetence and lack of planing of the russian leadership, that thought (for whatever reason), that they had just to show up, accept an unconditional surrender, and prepare a victory-parade.
Aparently, they ACTUALLY thought that the population and the army would welcome them as their liberators......
The counteroffensive of Jerson, on the other side, was victorious, because the contratcs of the russian volunteers expired massively after 5 months of war (the russians actually thought it wouldn`t take longer than that), and they simply packed their belongings and went home, leaving the frontline understaffed, do to the failure of the russian army to provide replacements for all this people leaving at the same moment.
NATO-intellingece noticed it, and they used this very unique and punctuall weakness to kick the russian in balls, seizing a good chunk of previously occupied territory.
BUT, the russians learned from their mistakes, as the failurre of the summer-offensive shows, and unless they commit serious mistakes, Ukraine will be unable to launch succesfull offensives in the near future........
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Although the soviet army beared the bulk of the fight (and losses) against facism, truth is, that the only reason the soviet army reached Berlin first, was because the western allies (particulary the USA) refused to rush to it, because at Yalta it was established that Berlin (although divided) wea to be in the soviet-okupied part of Germany.
They saw no need in losing men, supplies and time in conquering an area they would later have to hand over to the soviet troops!
And this had nothing to do with any suposed western superiority.
It was to fact that, at the end of the war, most germans were eager to surrender to the western allies (UK and USA, not so much to the French), and let them pass, and prayed to be conquered by them, while they fought viciously against the soviet steamroller, eager to hold them out just ONE minute more, and negate them the acces to one cm more of german land.
If the soviets took Berlin first, it was only because the western allies allowed it (much to the germans population despair)
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Asking to get the money for the refugees send to Ukraine has several objetives:
First of all, Zelenski, and his comrads of the oligarchy, can pocket their fair share of this funds (no worries, it will be only some billions)
Second, he cand divert this funds into the military budget wich he cares a lot more about then about the refugees....
Third, the few funds that WILL, indeed be given to the refugees, will allow the ukranian goverment to locate the refugees, control them, and have leverage over the young men in military age that currently are not willing to join the slaughter ("if you don`t join the army, your family will get no aid").
All this are things, the ukranian goverment, wich is deseperately seeking for new recruits, is not able to do right now.
Ukranian men in military age living in the EU can avoid beeing drafted simply by not registering in the ukranian embassy or consulats........ if their financial stability depended from the ukranian goverment, they WOULD be forced to register in the embasys and consulates in order to get the financial help, and would be so at the mercy of ukranian military recruiters.......
IF ukraine needs soldiers so urgently, they could open a recruit-center in Monaco, where the sons in military age of the ukranian oligarchs are waiting for the war to end. Indeed, they are called "the Monaco-brigade", and their partys are said to be legendary.......
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@DDtch6669
You are right, western Tanks were designed to operate in the plains of west Germany, (with no mud season and a lot of "Autobahn" , proper bridges capable of sustaining their weight, and local industrial facilities, able to provide the maintenance this complicated tools need) in a DEFENSIFE war against an invading soviet force.
Althoug the USSR is no longer, the western countries keep on building Tanks adecuate to operate in their OWN home-territory, or, at most, in that of their allies. (An exception to this is the US-army, who simply brings whatever they may need, with them, wherever that place may be)
My country, for example, operates its own version of the "Leopard" (more similar aparently to the shwedish version than to the german one), do to its more complicate orography.
Ukraine, is for all practical purposes a "soviet-union" enviroment (roads, bridges, maintenance crews, clima, soil, and what not).
Blaming a tool because it operates poorly in an enviroment, it has not been designed for, is not reasonable!
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If Israel tried to end me, I would last aproximately 10 seconds (on a lucky day)........ That this man was able to keep himself alive so many years must almost feel like a victory of ots own......
Moral considerations apart, he must be a very dedicated man, even obsesive...... I wonder what he would been able to achieve, had he lived in more peacefull circumstances.
I wonder also if he is full of hate, or if he considers himself just to be doing his "patriotic" (or "islamic") duty.
He has brought a lot of suffering to many people, but on the other hand, what option does he, or any palestinian have?
The situation in the west bank after almost two decades of FULL cooperation from the Palestinian authority towards Israel, has shown EVERY PALESTINIAN, and a lot of people in the rest of the world, that this is not the way.
Israel has shown every palestinian what their life will look like if they accept the ocupation without fighting......no wonder they choose to fight.... I certainly would.......and if the Palestinian Authotity had choosen to cooperate with Israel (without any gain), and the only ones fighting were Hamas, I would join Hamas....... great job, Israel!
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